{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}D:\Forskning og undervisning\Fiscal Rules and democratic advantage\Submission Political Science Research and Methods\Revision\Final version\For Dataverse\Logfile.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}25 Feb 2022, 17:31:58

{com}. do "C:\Users\Acer\AppData\Local\Temp\STD43fc_000000.tmp"
{txt}
{com}. 
. use "C:\Users\Acer\lasseaaskoven Dropbox\Lasse Aaskoven\Fiscal Rules in Autocracies\BMW  (BJPS 2019) replication material\BMW Dataverse dataset.dta"
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. rename wbcode ccodealp
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
.  merge m:1 ccodealp year using "C:\Users\Acer\Dropbox\Fiscal Rules in Autocracies\BMW  (BJPS 2019) replication material\fria.amended3.dta"
{res}{txt}{p 0 7 2}
(variable
{bf:ccode} was {bf:long}, now {bf:double} to accommodate using data's values)
{p_end}

{col 5}Result{col 33}Number of obs
{col 5}{hline 41}
{col 5}Not matched{col 30}{res}           5,090
{txt}{col 9}from master{col 30}{res}           2,208{txt}  (_merge==1)
{col 9}from using{col 30}{res}           2,882{txt}  (_merge==2)

{col 5}Matched{col 30}{res}          40,560{txt}  (_merge==3)
{col 5}{hline 41}

{com}.  
.  rename lvaw_garriga lvaw_garriga_2012
{res}{txt}
{com}.  
.  
.  drop _merge
{txt}
{com}.   merge m:1 ccodewb year using "C:\Users\Acer\Dropbox\Fiscal Rules in Autocracies\BMW  (BJPS 2019) replication material\CBI dataset 190614_data to merge"
{res}{txt}{p 0 7 2}
(variable
{bf:cname} was {bf:str29}, now {bf:str34} to accommodate using data's values)
{p_end}

{col 5}Result{col 33}Number of obs
{col 5}{hline 41}
{col 5}Not matched{col 30}{res}           6,934
{txt}{col 9}from master{col 30}{res}           4,833{txt}  (_merge==1)
{col 9}from using{col 30}{res}           2,101{txt}  (_merge==2)

{col 5}Matched{col 30}{res}          40,817{txt}  (_merge==3)
{col 5}{hline 41}

{com}. 
.  
.  generate loggdp= log(wdi_gdpcapcon2010)
{txt}(7,199 missing values generated)

{com}. generate logdebt= log( gov_grossdebt)
{txt}(14,514 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
.  
. *Generation of fiscal rules variables* 
. 
. *Generation of dummy for expenditure rule with statuary or constitutional basis*
. generate statconER=0
{txt}
{com}. replace statconER=1 if ER== 1 & legal_n_ER==3 |ER== 1 & legal_n_ER==5
{txt}(2,122 real changes made)

{com}. replace statconER=. if ER==.
{txt}(4,309 real changes made, 4,309 to missing)

{com}. 
. *Generation of dummy for revenue rule with statuary or constitutional basis*
. generate statconRR=0
{txt}
{com}. replace statconRR=1 if RR== 1 & legal_n_RR==3 |RR== 1 & legal_n_RR==5
{txt}(432 real changes made)

{com}. replace statconRR=. if RR==.
{txt}(4,309 real changes made, 4,309 to missing)

{com}. 
. *Generation of dummy for balanced budget rule with statuary or constitutional basis*
. generate statconBBR=0
{txt}
{com}. replace statconBBR=1 if BBR== 1 & legal_n_BBR==3 |BBR== 1 & legal_n_BBR==5
{txt}(5,442 real changes made)

{com}. replace statconBBR=. if BBR==.
{txt}(4,309 real changes made, 4,309 to missing)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Generation of dummy for debt rule with statuary or constitutional basis*
. generate statconDR=0
{txt}
{com}. replace statconDR=1 if DR== 1 & legal_n_DR==3 |DR== 1 & legal_n_DR==5
{txt}(3,075 real changes made)

{com}. replace statconDR=. if DR==.
{txt}(4,309 real changes made, 4,309 to missing)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. *Generation of IMF national expenditure rules index* 
. *Rescale cover of expenditure rule*
. generate cover_n_er2= cover_n_ER/2
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *Rescale legal scope of expenditure rule*
. generate legal_n_er2= legal_n_ER/5
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *generation of Expenditure rules strenght index* 
. generate ER_n_strengh = cover_n_er2 + legal_n_er2 + enforce_n_ER + suport_ceil_n_a + frl + suport_budg_n + suport_impl_n
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. *Rescale cover of revenue rule*
. generate cover_n_rr2= cover_n_RR/2
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *Rescale legal scope of revenue rule*
. generate legal_n_rr2= legal_n_RR/5
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *generation of revenue rules strenght index*
. generate RR_n_strengh= cover_n_rr2 + legal_n_rr2 + enforce_n_RR + frl + suport_budg_n + suport_impl_n
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *Rescale cover of balanced budget rule*
. generate cover_n_bbr2=cover_n_BBR/2
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *Rescale legal scope of balanced budget rule*
. generate legal_n_bbr2= legal_n_BBR/5
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *generation of balanced budget rules strenght index*
. generate BBR_n_strengh= cover_n_bbr2 + legal_n_bbr2 + enforce_n_BBR + suport_ceil_n_a + frl + suport_budg_n + suport_impl_n
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *Rescale cover of debt rule*
. generate cover_n_dr2= cover_n_DR/2
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *Rescale legal scope of debt rule*
. generate legal_n_dr2= legal_n_DR/5
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *generation of debt rule strenght index*
. generate DR_n_strengh= cover_n_dr2 + legal_n_dr2 + enforce_n_DR + suport_ceil_n_a + frl + suport_budg_n + suport_impl_n
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. *Generation of overal fiscal rules index*
. generate nationalfiscalrulesindex=((DR_n_strengh*5/7) + (BBR_n_strengh*5/7) + (RR_n_strengh*5/6) + (ER_n_strengh*5/7))/4
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Generation of national fiscal rules in place*
. generate nationaler=0
{txt}
{com}. replace nationaler=1 if ER==1 & ER_supra!=2
{txt}(4,231 real changes made)

{com}. replace nationaler=. if ER==. 
{txt}(4,309 real changes made, 4,309 to missing)

{com}. 
. generate nationalrr=0
{txt}
{com}. replace nationalrr=1 if RR==1 & RR_supra!=2
{txt}(1,162 real changes made)

{com}. replace nationalrr=. if RR==. 
{txt}(4,309 real changes made, 4,309 to missing)

{com}. 
. generate nationalbbr=0
{txt}
{com}. replace nationalbbr=1 if BBR==1 & BBR_supra!=2
{txt}(7,167 real changes made)

{com}. replace nationalbbr=. if BBR==. 
{txt}(4,309 real changes made, 4,309 to missing)

{com}. 
. generate nationaldr=0
{txt}
{com}. replace nationaldr=1 if DR==1 & DR_supra!=2
{txt}(4,611 real changes made)

{com}. replace nationaldr=. if DR==. 
{txt}(4,309 real changes made, 4,309 to missing)

{com}. 
. 
. generate nationalfiscalrule=0
{txt}
{com}. replace nationalfiscalrule=1 if nationaler==1 | nationalrr==1 | nationalbbr==1 | nationaldr==1
{txt}(9,865 real changes made)

{com}. replace nationalfiscalrule=. if year<1985 | year>2015
{txt}(3,582 real changes made, 3,582 to missing)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. *Alternative fiscal rules strenght indexes: Without ceilings and fiscal responsibility law:
. 
. *National fiscal rules*
. *generation of Expenditure rules strenght index* 
. generate ER_n_strengh2 = cover_n_er2 + legal_n_er2 + enforce_n_ER  + suport_budg_n + suport_impl_n
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. *generation of revenue rules strenght index*
. generate RR_n_strengh2= cover_n_rr2 + legal_n_rr2 + enforce_n_RR +  suport_budg_n + suport_impl_n
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *generation of balanced budget rules strenght index*
. generate BBR_n_strengh2= cover_n_bbr2 + legal_n_bbr2 + enforce_n_BBR +  suport_budg_n + suport_impl_n
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *generation of debt rule strenght index*
. generate DR_n_strengh2= cover_n_dr2 + legal_n_dr2 + enforce_n_DR + suport_budg_n + suport_impl_n
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. *Generation of overal fiscal rules index*
. generate nationalfiscalrulesindex2=((DR_n_strengh2*5/5) + (BBR_n_strengh2*5/5) + (RR_n_strengh2*5/5) + (ER_n_strengh2*5/5))/4
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
.  
.  *Anoother alternative fiscal rules strenght indexes: Without any auxilliary institutions:
. 
. *National fiscal rules*
. *generation of Expenditure rules strenght index* 
. generate ER_n_strengh3 = cover_n_er2 + legal_n_er2 + enforce_n_ER 
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. *generation of revenue rules strenght index*
. generate RR_n_strengh3= cover_n_rr2 + legal_n_rr2 + enforce_n_RR 
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *generation of balanced budget rules strenght index*
. generate BBR_n_strengh3= cover_n_bbr2 + legal_n_bbr2 + enforce_n_BBR 
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. *generation of debt rule strenght index*
. generate DR_n_strengh3= cover_n_dr2 + legal_n_dr2 + enforce_n_DR 
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. *Generation of overal fiscal rules index*
. generate nationalfiscalrulesindex3=((DR_n_strengh3*3/3) + (BBR_n_strengh3*3/3) + (RR_n_strengh3*3/3) + (ER_n_strengh3*3/3))/4
{txt}(4,309 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
.  
.  
.  xtset ccode time
{res}
{col 1}{txt:Panel variable: }{res:ccode}{txt: (unbalanced)}
{p 1 16 2}{txt:Time variable: }{res:time}{txt:, }{res:{bind:1}}{txt: to }{res:{bind:324}}{p_end}
{txt}{col 10}Delta: {res}1 unit
{txt}
{com}.  rename anyIssue_UT_gt6mo issuanceOutcome
{res}{txt}
{com}. rename alreadyIssuedThisYear_UT_gt6mo alreadyIssued
{res}{txt}
{com}. gen amountOutcome = totalAmt_UT_gt6mo
{txt}(4,983 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Figure 1*
. 
. generate autocratic=0
{txt}
{com}. replace autocratic= 1 if democracy==0
{txt}(14,851 real changes made)

{com}. replace autocratic=. if democracy==.
{txt}(5,614 real changes made, 5,614 to missing)

{com}. generate laggeddemocracy= l12.democracy
{txt}(5,802 missing values generated)

{com}. generate laggedautocracy= l12.autocratic 
{txt}(5,802 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. generate reversepolyarchy= 1-v2x_polyarchymerged
{txt}(7,026 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. bysort year : egen year_mean = mean(nationalfiscalrule)
{txt}(3,582 missing values generated)

{com}. bysort year : egen autocracy_year_mean = mean(nationalfiscalrule) if laggeddemocracy!=1 & laggeddemocracy!=.
{txt}(33,433 missing values generated)

{com}. bysort year : egen democracy_year_mean = mean(nationalfiscalrule) if laggeddemocracy==1 & laggeddemocracy!=.
{txt}(21,656 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. twoway (line year_mean year,lcolor(black) )  (line democracy_year_mean year, lpattern(shortdash) lcolor(black) )  (line autocracy_year_mean year, lpattern(longdash) lcolor(black) )  ,graphregion(color(white)) ytitle(Share of countries with national fiscal rules) ylabel(, format(%9.1f)) xlabel(1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015)  legend(label(1 "All countries") label(2 "Democracies") label (3 "Autocracies")), if year > 1984 & year<2016
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
.  xtset ccode time
{res}
{col 1}{txt:Panel variable: }{res:ccode}{txt: (unbalanced)}
{p 1 16 2}{txt:Time variable: }{res:time}{txt:, }{res:{bind:1}}{txt: to }{res:{bind:324}}{p_end}
{txt}{col 10}Delta: {res}1 unit
{txt}
{com}. 
.  
. 
. *Collapsing to year level*
. drop if year<1990
{txt}(3,022 observations deleted)

{com}.  collapse  (mean) oecd issuanceOutcome log_totalAmt_UT democracy v2x_polyarchymerged  nationalfiscalrule gov_grossdebt curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region  v2x_polyarchy imfprogram treasury10yr  lvaw_garriga_2012 inflation_annual  nationalfiscalrulesindex  nationalfiscalrulesindex2 nationalfiscalrulesindex3 elect_dum  exportsToUS leader_elect SPnum MoodysNUM FitchNUM avgRating hasRating crisis_sovdebt hrv, by( ccode year)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
.  
.  *Rounding democracy up and down (trouble from collapsing)
. replace democracy=round(democracy, 1.0)
{txt}(92 real changes made)

{com}. 
.  *Core results*
.  xtset ccode year
{res}
{col 1}{txt:Panel variable: }{res:ccode}{txt: (unbalanced)}
{p 1 16 2}{txt:Time variable: }{res:year}{txt:, }{res:{bind:1990}}{txt: to }{res:{bind:2016}}{p_end}
{txt}{col 10}Delta: {res}1 unit
{txt}
{com}.  
.  
.  *Lagging the democracy/autocracy variable*
. generate autocratic=0
{txt}
{com}. replace autocratic= 1 if democracy==0
{txt}(1,944 real changes made)

{com}. replace autocratic=. if democracy==.
{txt}(512 real changes made, 512 to missing)

{com}. generate laggeddemocracy= l1.democracy
{txt}(569 missing values generated)

{com}. generate laggedautocracy= l1.autocratic 
{txt}(569 missing values generated)

{com}.  
.  
.  *Inserting autocracy scores for 1990*
.  replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==2
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==3
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==4
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==5
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==7
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==8
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==10
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==10
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==12
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==13
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==14
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==15
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==16
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==19
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==20
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==21
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==22
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==23
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==24
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==25
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==26
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==27
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.   replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==28
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==29
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==30
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==31
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==32
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==33
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==34
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==36
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==37
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==38
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==39
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==40
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==41
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==44
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==45
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==46
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==47
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==48
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==50
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==51
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==52
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==53
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==55
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==57
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==58
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==59
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==60
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==61
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==62
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==63
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==64
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==65
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==66
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==67
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==69
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==70
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==72
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==73
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==74
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==75
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==77
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==79
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==81
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==83
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==85
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==86
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==87
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==88
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==90
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==91
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==92
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==93
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==94
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==95
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==96
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==97
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==98
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==99
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==100
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==101
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==102
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==103
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==104
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==105
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==106
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==107
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==108
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==109
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==110
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==111
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==112
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==113
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==116
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==117
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==118
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==119
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==120
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==121
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==122
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==123
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==125
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==126
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=0 if year==1990 & ccode==127
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==128
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==129
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==130
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==131
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}.     replace laggedautocracy=1 if year==1990 & ccode==132
{txt}(1 real change made)

{com}. 
. 
.   
.  *Recoding ""leader election" into dummy (needed after collapsing to year level)*
.  generate leader_election_new=.
{txt}(5,227 missing values generated)

{com}. replace leader_election_new=1 if leader_elect>0
{txt}(2,364 real changes made)

{com}. replace leader_election_new=0 if leader_elect==0
{txt}(2,863 real changes made)

{com}. replace leader_election_new=. if leader_elect==.
{txt}(1,663 real changes made, 1,663 to missing)

{com}. 
. 
. *Recoding so that countries with slightly less than 1 on the national fiscal rules variable gets coded to 1 (needed after collapsing to year level)
. replace nationalfiscalrule=1 if nationalfiscalrule>0 & nationalfiscalrule<1
{txt}(32 real changes made)

{com}. 
.  *Appendix A: List of autocracies with fiscal rules*
. 
. list ccode year nationalfiscalrulesindex if nationalfiscalrule==1 &  laggedautocracy==1 & issuanceOutcome!=.
{txt}
      {c TLC}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c TRC}
      {c |} {res}ccode   year   nation~x {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
 154. {c |} {res}  ARM   2008       .125 {txt}{c |}
 155. {c |} {res}  ARM   2009       .125 {txt}{c |}
 156. {c |} {res}  ARM   2010       .125 {txt}{c |}
 157. {c |} {res}  ARM   2011       .125 {txt}{c |}
 158. {c |} {res}  ARM   2012       .125 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
 159. {c |} {res}  ARM   2013       .125 {txt}{c |}
 160. {c |} {res}  ARM   2014       .125 {txt}{c |}
 161. {c |} {res}  ARM   2015       .125 {txt}{c |}
1040. {c |} {res}  ECU   2003   1.583333 {txt}{c |}
1540. {c |} {res}  IDN   1990        .25 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
1541. {c |} {res}  IDN   1991        .25 {txt}{c |}
1542. {c |} {res}  IDN   1992        .25 {txt}{c |}
1543. {c |} {res}  IDN   1993        .25 {txt}{c |}
1544. {c |} {res}  IDN   1994        .25 {txt}{c |}
1545. {c |} {res}  IDN   1995        .25 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
1546. {c |} {res}  IDN   1996        .25 {txt}{c |}
1547. {c |} {res}  IDN   1997        .25 {txt}{c |}
1548. {c |} {res}  IDN   1998        .25 {txt}{c |}
1549. {c |} {res}  IDN   1999        .25 {txt}{c |}
1844. {c |} {res}  KEN   1997   .2708333 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
1845. {c |} {res}  KEN   1998   .2708333 {txt}{c |}
1846. {c |} {res}  KEN   1999   .2708333 {txt}{c |}
1847. {c |} {res}  KEN   2000   .2708333 {txt}{c |}
1848. {c |} {res}  KEN   2001   .2708333 {txt}{c |}
1849. {c |} {res}  KEN   2002   .2708333 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
1993. {c |} {res}  LKA   2011   1.136905 {txt}{c |}
1994. {c |} {res}  LKA   2012   1.136905 {txt}{c |}
1995. {c |} {res}  LKA   2013   1.136905 {txt}{c |}
1996. {c |} {res}  LKA   2014   1.136905 {txt}{c |}
1997. {c |} {res}  LKA   2015   1.136905 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2350. {c |} {res}  MYS   1990   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2351. {c |} {res}  MYS   1991   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2352. {c |} {res}  MYS   1992   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2353. {c |} {res}  MYS   1993   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2354. {c |} {res}  MYS   1994   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2355. {c |} {res}  MYS   1995   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2356. {c |} {res}  MYS   1996   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2357. {c |} {res}  MYS   1997   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2358. {c |} {res}  MYS   1998   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2359. {c |} {res}  MYS   1999   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2360. {c |} {res}  MYS   2000   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2361. {c |} {res}  MYS   2001   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2362. {c |} {res}  MYS   2002   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2363. {c |} {res}  MYS   2003   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2364. {c |} {res}  MYS   2004   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2365. {c |} {res}  MYS   2005   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2366. {c |} {res}  MYS   2006   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2367. {c |} {res}  MYS   2007   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2368. {c |} {res}  MYS   2008   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2369. {c |} {res}  MYS   2009   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2370. {c |} {res}  MYS   2010   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2371. {c |} {res}  MYS   2011   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2372. {c |} {res}  MYS   2012   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2373. {c |} {res}  MYS   2013   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2374. {c |} {res}  MYS   2014   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2375. {c |} {res}  MYS   2015   .3928572 {txt}{c |}
2388. {c |} {res}  NAM   2001   .1607143 {txt}{c |}
2389. {c |} {res}  NAM   2002   .1607143 {txt}{c |}
2390. {c |} {res}  NAM   2003   .1607143 {txt}{c |}
2391. {c |} {res}  NAM   2004   .1607143 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2392. {c |} {res}  NAM   2005   .1607143 {txt}{c |}
2393. {c |} {res}  NAM   2006   .1607143 {txt}{c |}
2394. {c |} {res}  NAM   2007   .1607143 {txt}{c |}
2395. {c |} {res}  NAM   2008   .1607143 {txt}{c |}
2396. {c |} {res}  NAM   2009   .1607143 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2397. {c |} {res}  NAM   2010   .8571429 {txt}{c |}
2398. {c |} {res}  NAM   2011   .8571429 {txt}{c |}
2399. {c |} {res}  NAM   2012   .8571429 {txt}{c |}
2400. {c |} {res}  NAM   2013   .8571429 {txt}{c |}
2401. {c |} {res}  NAM   2014   .8571429 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2402. {c |} {res}  NAM   2015   .8571429 {txt}{c |}
2421. {c |} {res}  NGA   2007   .9404762 {txt}{c |}
2422. {c |} {res}  NGA   2008   .9404762 {txt}{c |}
2423. {c |} {res}  NGA   2009   .9404762 {txt}{c |}
2424. {c |} {res}  NGA   2010   .9404762 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2425. {c |} {res}  NGA   2011   .9404762 {txt}{c |}
2426. {c |} {res}  NGA   2012   .9404762 {txt}{c |}
2427. {c |} {res}  NGA   2013   .9404762 {txt}{c |}
2428. {c |} {res}  NGA   2014   .9404762 {txt}{c |}
2429. {c |} {res}  NGA   2015   .9404762 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2581. {c |} {res}  PAK   2005   1.049451 {txt}{c |}
2582. {c |} {res}  PAK   2006   1.049451 {txt}{c |}
2583. {c |} {res}  PAK   2007   1.049451 {txt}{c |}
2584. {c |} {res}  PAK   2008   1.049451 {txt}{c |}
2630. {c |} {res}  PER   2000   1.315476 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2631. {c |} {res}  PER   2001   1.315476 {txt}{c |}
2853. {c |} {res}  RUS   2007   .4642857 {txt}{c |}
2854. {c |} {res}  RUS   2008   .4642857 {txt}{c |}
2859. {c |} {res}  RUS   2013   2.398809 {txt}{c |}
2860. {c |} {res}  RUS   2014   2.398809 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2861. {c |} {res}  RUS   2015   2.398809 {txt}{c |}
2944. {c |} {res}  SGP   1990   .4464286 {txt}{c |}
2945. {c |} {res}  SGP   1991   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2946. {c |} {res}  SGP   1992   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2947. {c |} {res}  SGP   1993   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2948. {c |} {res}  SGP   1994   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2949. {c |} {res}  SGP   1995   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2950. {c |} {res}  SGP   1996   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2951. {c |} {res}  SGP   1997   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2952. {c |} {res}  SGP   1998   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2953. {c |} {res}  SGP   1999   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2954. {c |} {res}  SGP   2000   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2955. {c |} {res}  SGP   2001   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2956. {c |} {res}  SGP   2002   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2957. {c |} {res}  SGP   2003   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2958. {c |} {res}  SGP   2004   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2959. {c |} {res}  SGP   2005   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2960. {c |} {res}  SGP   2006   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2961. {c |} {res}  SGP   2007   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2962. {c |} {res}  SGP   2008   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2963. {c |} {res}  SGP   2009   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2964. {c |} {res}  SGP   2010   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2965. {c |} {res}  SGP   2011   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2966. {c |} {res}  SGP   2012   .8928571 {txt}{c |}
2967. {c |} {res}  SGP   2013   1.636905 {txt}{c |}
      {c LT}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c RT}
2968. {c |} {res}  SGP   2014   1.636905 {txt}{c |}
2969. {c |} {res}  SGP   2015   1.636905 {txt}{c |}
      {c BLC}{hline 7}{c -}{hline 6}{c -}{hline 10}{c BRC}

{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. * Appendix B: Descriptive statistics: Linear probability models/
. xtsum issuanceOutcome  laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule gov_grossdebt curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region  leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt hrv imfprogram  if issuanceOutcome!=. &  laggeddemocracy!=. &  nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & curr_act_gdp!=. &  wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. &  wdi_gdpcapgr!=. & issue_region!=. & leader_election_new!=. &   exportsToUS!=. & crisis_sovdebt!=.  & imfprogram!=.  

{txt}Variable         {c |}      Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max {c |}    Observations
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 44}{c +}{hline 16}
issuan~e{col 10}overall {c |} {res}  .440263   .3894479          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res}   .28532          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .2725882  -.3826537   1.214569{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
l~demo~y{col 10}overall {c |} {res} .6921109   .4617189          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} .4373848          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .1716845  -.2678891   1.650444{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
l~auto~y{col 10}overall {c |} {res} .3078891   .4617189          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} .4373848          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .1716845  -.6504442   1.267889{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
nation~e{col 10}overall {c |} {res} .3134328   .4639876          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} .3782544          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .2728075  -.6339356   1.273433{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
gov_gr~t{col 10}overall {c |} {res} 50.84075   33.08453          0    260.964{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} 27.28656    6.41035     175.24{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} 19.38835   -23.3652   230.9418{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
curr_a~p{col 10}overall {c |} {res}-1.681851   8.977103    -44.841   45.45416{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} 7.145148  -22.50245   29.03846{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} 5.918521   -37.6424   30.78081{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
wdi_oi~t{col 10}overall {c |} {res} 3.723625   9.644888          0     64.013{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} 9.727663          0   47.87565{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} 2.836719  -27.12888   34.19571{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
loggdp{col 10}overall {c |} {res} 8.826273   1.341262   5.636372   11.62597{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} 1.345729   5.837617   11.52885{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .1923563   7.933594   9.658902{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
wdi_gd~r{col 10}overall {c |} {res} 2.583638    3.94142  -14.55986    36.9809{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} 1.773521  -.9161808   8.753241{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} 3.533268  -18.04735   33.20065{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
issue_~n{col 10}overall {c |} {res}  .612316    .227056   .0108696          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} .1600014   .1253623          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .1667311  -.0254618    1.07449{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
leader~w{col 10}overall {c |} {res} .2208955   .4149387          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} .1005957          0   .4705882{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .4025937  -.2496927   1.180896{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
export~S{col 10}overall {c |} {res} 928.7065   2964.106          0   40265.72{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} 2556.225   .1650349   20071.62{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} 1375.803  -15347.65   21122.81{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
crisis~t{col 10}overall {c |} {res} .0119403   .1086405          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} .0503576          0       .375{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .0946982  -.3630597   .9719403{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
hrv{col 10}overall {c |} {res} 2.722764   2.332481  -1.216952   9.981103{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    1349
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} 2.225003  -.8467685   8.225432{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =      90
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .8022253  -1.343478   4.803298{txt} {c |}     T = 14.9889
{col 18}{c |}{col 63}{c |}
imfpro~m{col 10}overall {c |} {res} .3028375   .4586268          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2345
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} .3145753          0          1{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     121
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .3380421  -.6471625   1.255218{txt} {c |}     T = 19.3802

{com}. 
. xtsum  v2x_polyarchymerged if issuanceOutcome!=. & v2x_polyarchymerged!=. &  nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & curr_act_gdp!=. &  wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. &  wdi_gdpcapgr!=. & issue_region!=. & leader_election_new!=. &   exportsToUS!=. & crisis_sovdebt!=.  & imfprogram!=.  

{txt}Variable         {c |}      Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max {c |}    Observations
{hline 17}{c +}{hline 44}{c +}{hline 16}
v2x_po~d{col 10}overall {c |} {res} .6166529   .2516918       .017       .948{txt} {c |}{col 69}N =    2306
{col 10}between {c |}{col 31}{res} .2429688   .0403108   .9105417{txt} {c |}{col 69}n =     118
{col 10}within  {c |}{col 31}{res} .0601589   .0950279    1.06782{txt} {c |}     T = 19.5424

{com}. 
. 
. *Figure 2a/b and associated tests. 
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram   i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,345
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1637{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0009{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.4
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0076{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}37{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.34
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8341{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1878349{col 52}{space 2} .0666891{col 63}{space 1}   -2.82{col 72}{space 3}0.006{col 80}{space 4}-.3198747{col 93}{space 3} -.055795
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1335126{col 52}{space 2} .0528818{col 63}{space 1}   -2.52{col 72}{space 3}0.013{col 80}{space 4}-.2382149{col 93}{space 3}-.0288103
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3058572{col 52}{space 2} .1181174{col 63}{space 1}    2.59{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4} .0719929{col 93}{space 3} .5397215
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0010665{col 52}{space 2}  .000611{col 63}{space 1}   -1.75{col 72}{space 3}0.083{col 80}{space 4}-.0022762{col 93}{space 3} .0001432
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0032753{col 52}{space 2} .0019151{col 63}{space 1}    1.71{col 72}{space 3}0.090{col 80}{space 4}-.0005164{col 93}{space 3} .0070671
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  -.00149{col 52}{space 2} .0028588{col 63}{space 1}   -0.52{col 72}{space 3}0.603{col 80}{space 4}-.0071501{col 93}{space 3} .0041702
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3025451{col 52}{space 2} .1066856{col 63}{space 1}    2.84{col 72}{space 3}0.005{col 80}{space 4} .0913151{col 93}{space 3} .5137751
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0005249{col 52}{space 2} .0024732{col 63}{space 1}    0.21{col 72}{space 3}0.832{col 80}{space 4}-.0043718{col 93}{space 3} .0054217
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5477074{col 52}{space 2} .1607309{col 63}{space 1}    3.41{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} .2294713{col 93}{space 3} .8659435
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0037186{col 52}{space 2} .0087005{col 63}{space 1}    0.43{col 72}{space 3}0.670{col 80}{space 4}-.0135078{col 93}{space 3} .0209449
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-5.67e-06{col 52}{space 2} 6.80e-06{col 63}{space 1}   -0.83{col 72}{space 3}0.406{col 80}{space 4}-.0000191{col 93}{space 3} 7.80e-06
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.2398281{col 52}{space 2} .0700049{col 63}{space 1}   -3.43{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} -.378433{col 93}{space 3}-.1012232
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0607846{col 52}{space 2} .0318208{col 63}{space 1}   -1.91{col 72}{space 3}0.058{col 80}{space 4}-.1237876{col 93}{space 3} .0022184
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2242783{col 52}{space 2} .1273412{col 63}{space 1}    1.76{col 72}{space 3}0.081{col 80}{space 4}-.0278484{col 93}{space 3}  .476405
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2531586{col 52}{space 2} .1228417{col 63}{space 1}    2.06{col 72}{space 3}0.041{col 80}{space 4} .0099407{col 93}{space 3} .4963765
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2823456{col 52}{space 2} .1154219{col 63}{space 1}    2.45{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4} .0538183{col 93}{space 3} .5108729
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2527636{col 52}{space 2} .1126259{col 63}{space 1}    2.24{col 72}{space 3}0.027{col 80}{space 4} .0297721{col 93}{space 3}  .475755
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2432689{col 52}{space 2} .1039962{col 63}{space 1}    2.34{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .0373637{col 93}{space 3} .4491741
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2370109{col 52}{space 2} .0972296{col 63}{space 1}    2.44{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4}  .044503{col 93}{space 3} .4295187
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2300178{col 52}{space 2}  .084454{col 63}{space 1}    2.72{col 72}{space 3}0.007{col 80}{space 4} .0628048{col 93}{space 3} .3972309
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1858759{col 52}{space 2} .0792571{col 63}{space 1}    2.35{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .0289524{col 93}{space 3} .3427993
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1885521{col 52}{space 2} .0788323{col 63}{space 1}    2.39{col 72}{space 3}0.018{col 80}{space 4} .0324696{col 93}{space 3} .3446346
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1282911{col 52}{space 2}  .070731{col 63}{space 1}    1.81{col 72}{space 3}0.072{col 80}{space 4}-.0117513{col 93}{space 3} .2683336
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1483406{col 52}{space 2} .0641364{col 63}{space 1}    2.31{col 72}{space 3}0.022{col 80}{space 4}  .021355{col 93}{space 3} .2753263
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1327406{col 52}{space 2} .0617645{col 63}{space 1}    2.15{col 72}{space 3}0.034{col 80}{space 4} .0104511{col 93}{space 3} .2550301
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1139351{col 52}{space 2} .0590044{col 63}{space 1}    1.93{col 72}{space 3}0.056{col 80}{space 4}-.0028895{col 93}{space 3} .2307597
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0798297{col 52}{space 2} .0557754{col 63}{space 1}    1.43{col 72}{space 3}0.155{col 80}{space 4}-.0306018{col 93}{space 3} .1902611
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0517132{col 52}{space 2} .0499814{col 63}{space 1}    1.03{col 72}{space 3}0.303{col 80}{space 4}-.0472466{col 93}{space 3} .1506729
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .025566{col 52}{space 2} .0438645{col 63}{space 1}    0.58{col 72}{space 3}0.561{col 80}{space 4}-.0612826{col 93}{space 3} .1124146
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0118578{col 52}{space 2} .0394682{col 63}{space 1}   -0.30{col 72}{space 3}0.764{col 80}{space 4}-.0900021{col 93}{space 3} .0662865
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0049586{col 52}{space 2} .0418457{col 63}{space 1}   -0.12{col 72}{space 3}0.906{col 80}{space 4}-.0878102{col 93}{space 3} .0778931
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0553408{col 52}{space 2}  .038416{col 63}{space 1}    1.44{col 72}{space 3}0.152{col 80}{space 4}-.0207202{col 93}{space 3} .1314018
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0438663{col 52}{space 2} .0336512{col 63}{space 1}    1.30{col 72}{space 3}0.195{col 80}{space 4}-.0227607{col 93}{space 3} .1104933
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0237679{col 52}{space 2} .0293164{col 63}{space 1}    0.81{col 72}{space 3}0.419{col 80}{space 4}-.0342765{col 93}{space 3} .0818123
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0445338{col 52}{space 2}  .025571{col 63}{space 1}    1.74{col 72}{space 3}0.084{col 80}{space 4} -.006095{col 93}{space 3} .0951627
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0363683{col 52}{space 2} .0237229{col 63}{space 1}    1.53{col 72}{space 3}0.128{col 80}{space 4}-.0106015{col 93}{space 3}  .083338
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0281907{col 52}{space 2} .0176277{col 63}{space 1}    1.60{col 72}{space 3}0.112{col 80}{space 4}-.0067109{col 93}{space 3} .0630923
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-2.481682{col 52}{space 2}  .971576{col 63}{space 1}   -2.55{col 72}{space 3}0.012{col 80}{space 4}-4.405335{col 93}{space 3}-.5580295
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .55068474
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25807055
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .81992788{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on bond issuance)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region  leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,345
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1637{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0009{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.4
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0076{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}37{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.34
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8341{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1878349{col 52}{space 2} .0666891{col 63}{space 1}   -2.82{col 72}{space 3}0.006{col 80}{space 4}-.3198747{col 93}{space 3} -.055795
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1335126{col 52}{space 2} .0528818{col 63}{space 1}   -2.52{col 72}{space 3}0.013{col 80}{space 4}-.2382149{col 93}{space 3}-.0288103
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3058572{col 52}{space 2} .1181174{col 63}{space 1}    2.59{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4} .0719929{col 93}{space 3} .5397215
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0010665{col 52}{space 2}  .000611{col 63}{space 1}   -1.75{col 72}{space 3}0.083{col 80}{space 4}-.0022762{col 93}{space 3} .0001432
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0032753{col 52}{space 2} .0019151{col 63}{space 1}    1.71{col 72}{space 3}0.090{col 80}{space 4}-.0005164{col 93}{space 3} .0070671
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  -.00149{col 52}{space 2} .0028588{col 63}{space 1}   -0.52{col 72}{space 3}0.603{col 80}{space 4}-.0071501{col 93}{space 3} .0041702
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3025451{col 52}{space 2} .1066856{col 63}{space 1}    2.84{col 72}{space 3}0.005{col 80}{space 4} .0913151{col 93}{space 3} .5137751
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0005249{col 52}{space 2} .0024732{col 63}{space 1}    0.21{col 72}{space 3}0.832{col 80}{space 4}-.0043718{col 93}{space 3} .0054217
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5477074{col 52}{space 2} .1607309{col 63}{space 1}    3.41{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} .2294713{col 93}{space 3} .8659435
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0037186{col 52}{space 2} .0087005{col 63}{space 1}    0.43{col 72}{space 3}0.670{col 80}{space 4}-.0135078{col 93}{space 3} .0209449
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-5.67e-06{col 52}{space 2} 6.80e-06{col 63}{space 1}   -0.83{col 72}{space 3}0.406{col 80}{space 4}-.0000191{col 93}{space 3} 7.80e-06
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.2398281{col 52}{space 2} .0700049{col 63}{space 1}   -3.43{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} -.378433{col 93}{space 3}-.1012232
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0607846{col 52}{space 2} .0318208{col 63}{space 1}   -1.91{col 72}{space 3}0.058{col 80}{space 4}-.1237876{col 93}{space 3} .0022184
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2242783{col 52}{space 2} .1273412{col 63}{space 1}    1.76{col 72}{space 3}0.081{col 80}{space 4}-.0278484{col 93}{space 3}  .476405
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2531586{col 52}{space 2} .1228417{col 63}{space 1}    2.06{col 72}{space 3}0.041{col 80}{space 4} .0099407{col 93}{space 3} .4963765
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2823456{col 52}{space 2} .1154219{col 63}{space 1}    2.45{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4} .0538183{col 93}{space 3} .5108729
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2527636{col 52}{space 2} .1126259{col 63}{space 1}    2.24{col 72}{space 3}0.027{col 80}{space 4} .0297721{col 93}{space 3}  .475755
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2432689{col 52}{space 2} .1039962{col 63}{space 1}    2.34{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .0373637{col 93}{space 3} .4491741
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2370109{col 52}{space 2} .0972296{col 63}{space 1}    2.44{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4}  .044503{col 93}{space 3} .4295187
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2300178{col 52}{space 2}  .084454{col 63}{space 1}    2.72{col 72}{space 3}0.007{col 80}{space 4} .0628048{col 93}{space 3} .3972309
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1858759{col 52}{space 2} .0792571{col 63}{space 1}    2.35{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .0289524{col 93}{space 3} .3427993
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1885521{col 52}{space 2} .0788323{col 63}{space 1}    2.39{col 72}{space 3}0.018{col 80}{space 4} .0324696{col 93}{space 3} .3446346
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1282911{col 52}{space 2}  .070731{col 63}{space 1}    1.81{col 72}{space 3}0.072{col 80}{space 4}-.0117513{col 93}{space 3} .2683336
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1483406{col 52}{space 2} .0641364{col 63}{space 1}    2.31{col 72}{space 3}0.022{col 80}{space 4}  .021355{col 93}{space 3} .2753263
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1327406{col 52}{space 2} .0617645{col 63}{space 1}    2.15{col 72}{space 3}0.034{col 80}{space 4} .0104511{col 93}{space 3} .2550301
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1139351{col 52}{space 2} .0590044{col 63}{space 1}    1.93{col 72}{space 3}0.056{col 80}{space 4}-.0028895{col 93}{space 3} .2307597
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0798297{col 52}{space 2} .0557754{col 63}{space 1}    1.43{col 72}{space 3}0.155{col 80}{space 4}-.0306018{col 93}{space 3} .1902611
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0517132{col 52}{space 2} .0499814{col 63}{space 1}    1.03{col 72}{space 3}0.303{col 80}{space 4}-.0472466{col 93}{space 3} .1506729
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .025566{col 52}{space 2} .0438645{col 63}{space 1}    0.58{col 72}{space 3}0.561{col 80}{space 4}-.0612826{col 93}{space 3} .1124146
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0118578{col 52}{space 2} .0394682{col 63}{space 1}   -0.30{col 72}{space 3}0.764{col 80}{space 4}-.0900021{col 93}{space 3} .0662865
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0049586{col 52}{space 2} .0418457{col 63}{space 1}   -0.12{col 72}{space 3}0.906{col 80}{space 4}-.0878102{col 93}{space 3} .0778931
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0553408{col 52}{space 2}  .038416{col 63}{space 1}    1.44{col 72}{space 3}0.152{col 80}{space 4}-.0207202{col 93}{space 3} .1314018
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0438663{col 52}{space 2} .0336512{col 63}{space 1}    1.30{col 72}{space 3}0.195{col 80}{space 4}-.0227607{col 93}{space 3} .1104933
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0237679{col 52}{space 2} .0293164{col 63}{space 1}    0.81{col 72}{space 3}0.419{col 80}{space 4}-.0342765{col 93}{space 3} .0818123
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0445338{col 52}{space 2}  .025571{col 63}{space 1}    1.74{col 72}{space 3}0.084{col 80}{space 4} -.006095{col 93}{space 3} .0951627
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0363683{col 52}{space 2} .0237229{col 63}{space 1}    1.53{col 72}{space 3}0.128{col 80}{space 4}-.0106015{col 93}{space 3}  .083338
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0281907{col 52}{space 2} .0176277{col 63}{space 1}    1.60{col 72}{space 3}0.112{col 80}{space 4}-.0067109{col 93}{space 3} .0630923
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-2.481682{col 52}{space 2}  .971576{col 63}{space 1}   -2.55{col 72}{space 3}0.012{col 80}{space 4}-4.405335{col 93}{space 3}-.5580295
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .55068474
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25807055
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .81992788{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(laggedautocracy) by(nationalfiscalrule)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,345}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:laggedautocracy}{p_end}
{p2col:Over:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}laggedautocracy    {txt}{c |}
nationalfiscalrule {c |}
{space 16}0  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1878349{col 32}{space 2} .0666891{col 43}{space 1}   -2.82{col 52}{space 3}0.005{col 60}{space 4}-.3185432{col 73}{space 3}-.0571266
{txt}{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1180224{col 32}{space 2} .1076032{col 43}{space 1}    1.10{col 52}{space 3}0.273{col 60}{space 4} -.092876{col 73}{space 3} .3289207
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, level(95) ytitle(Effect of autocracy on bond issuance)yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) xtitle(Fiscal rule in place)scheme(s2mono) xlabel(0 "No" 1 "Yes")  graphregion(color(white))legend (off) ylabel(-0.4(0.2)0.4,format(%9.1f))
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region  leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,345
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1637{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0009{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.4
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0076{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}37{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.34
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8341{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1878349{col 52}{space 2} .0666891{col 63}{space 1}   -2.82{col 72}{space 3}0.006{col 80}{space 4}-.3198747{col 93}{space 3} -.055795
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1335126{col 52}{space 2} .0528818{col 63}{space 1}   -2.52{col 72}{space 3}0.013{col 80}{space 4}-.2382149{col 93}{space 3}-.0288103
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3058572{col 52}{space 2} .1181174{col 63}{space 1}    2.59{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4} .0719929{col 93}{space 3} .5397215
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0010665{col 52}{space 2}  .000611{col 63}{space 1}   -1.75{col 72}{space 3}0.083{col 80}{space 4}-.0022762{col 93}{space 3} .0001432
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0032753{col 52}{space 2} .0019151{col 63}{space 1}    1.71{col 72}{space 3}0.090{col 80}{space 4}-.0005164{col 93}{space 3} .0070671
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  -.00149{col 52}{space 2} .0028588{col 63}{space 1}   -0.52{col 72}{space 3}0.603{col 80}{space 4}-.0071501{col 93}{space 3} .0041702
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3025451{col 52}{space 2} .1066856{col 63}{space 1}    2.84{col 72}{space 3}0.005{col 80}{space 4} .0913151{col 93}{space 3} .5137751
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0005249{col 52}{space 2} .0024732{col 63}{space 1}    0.21{col 72}{space 3}0.832{col 80}{space 4}-.0043718{col 93}{space 3} .0054217
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5477074{col 52}{space 2} .1607309{col 63}{space 1}    3.41{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} .2294713{col 93}{space 3} .8659435
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0037186{col 52}{space 2} .0087005{col 63}{space 1}    0.43{col 72}{space 3}0.670{col 80}{space 4}-.0135078{col 93}{space 3} .0209449
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-5.67e-06{col 52}{space 2} 6.80e-06{col 63}{space 1}   -0.83{col 72}{space 3}0.406{col 80}{space 4}-.0000191{col 93}{space 3} 7.80e-06
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.2398281{col 52}{space 2} .0700049{col 63}{space 1}   -3.43{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} -.378433{col 93}{space 3}-.1012232
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0607846{col 52}{space 2} .0318208{col 63}{space 1}   -1.91{col 72}{space 3}0.058{col 80}{space 4}-.1237876{col 93}{space 3} .0022184
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2242783{col 52}{space 2} .1273412{col 63}{space 1}    1.76{col 72}{space 3}0.081{col 80}{space 4}-.0278484{col 93}{space 3}  .476405
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2531586{col 52}{space 2} .1228417{col 63}{space 1}    2.06{col 72}{space 3}0.041{col 80}{space 4} .0099407{col 93}{space 3} .4963765
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2823456{col 52}{space 2} .1154219{col 63}{space 1}    2.45{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4} .0538183{col 93}{space 3} .5108729
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2527636{col 52}{space 2} .1126259{col 63}{space 1}    2.24{col 72}{space 3}0.027{col 80}{space 4} .0297721{col 93}{space 3}  .475755
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2432689{col 52}{space 2} .1039962{col 63}{space 1}    2.34{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .0373637{col 93}{space 3} .4491741
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2370109{col 52}{space 2} .0972296{col 63}{space 1}    2.44{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4}  .044503{col 93}{space 3} .4295187
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2300178{col 52}{space 2}  .084454{col 63}{space 1}    2.72{col 72}{space 3}0.007{col 80}{space 4} .0628048{col 93}{space 3} .3972309
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1858759{col 52}{space 2} .0792571{col 63}{space 1}    2.35{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .0289524{col 93}{space 3} .3427993
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1885521{col 52}{space 2} .0788323{col 63}{space 1}    2.39{col 72}{space 3}0.018{col 80}{space 4} .0324696{col 93}{space 3} .3446346
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1282911{col 52}{space 2}  .070731{col 63}{space 1}    1.81{col 72}{space 3}0.072{col 80}{space 4}-.0117513{col 93}{space 3} .2683336
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1483406{col 52}{space 2} .0641364{col 63}{space 1}    2.31{col 72}{space 3}0.022{col 80}{space 4}  .021355{col 93}{space 3} .2753263
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1327406{col 52}{space 2} .0617645{col 63}{space 1}    2.15{col 72}{space 3}0.034{col 80}{space 4} .0104511{col 93}{space 3} .2550301
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1139351{col 52}{space 2} .0590044{col 63}{space 1}    1.93{col 72}{space 3}0.056{col 80}{space 4}-.0028895{col 93}{space 3} .2307597
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0798297{col 52}{space 2} .0557754{col 63}{space 1}    1.43{col 72}{space 3}0.155{col 80}{space 4}-.0306018{col 93}{space 3} .1902611
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0517132{col 52}{space 2} .0499814{col 63}{space 1}    1.03{col 72}{space 3}0.303{col 80}{space 4}-.0472466{col 93}{space 3} .1506729
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .025566{col 52}{space 2} .0438645{col 63}{space 1}    0.58{col 72}{space 3}0.561{col 80}{space 4}-.0612826{col 93}{space 3} .1124146
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0118578{col 52}{space 2} .0394682{col 63}{space 1}   -0.30{col 72}{space 3}0.764{col 80}{space 4}-.0900021{col 93}{space 3} .0662865
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0049586{col 52}{space 2} .0418457{col 63}{space 1}   -0.12{col 72}{space 3}0.906{col 80}{space 4}-.0878102{col 93}{space 3} .0778931
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0553408{col 52}{space 2}  .038416{col 63}{space 1}    1.44{col 72}{space 3}0.152{col 80}{space 4}-.0207202{col 93}{space 3} .1314018
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0438663{col 52}{space 2} .0336512{col 63}{space 1}    1.30{col 72}{space 3}0.195{col 80}{space 4}-.0227607{col 93}{space 3} .1104933
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0237679{col 52}{space 2} .0293164{col 63}{space 1}    0.81{col 72}{space 3}0.419{col 80}{space 4}-.0342765{col 93}{space 3} .0818123
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0445338{col 52}{space 2}  .025571{col 63}{space 1}    1.74{col 72}{space 3}0.084{col 80}{space 4} -.006095{col 93}{space 3} .0951627
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0363683{col 52}{space 2} .0237229{col 63}{space 1}    1.53{col 72}{space 3}0.128{col 80}{space 4}-.0106015{col 93}{space 3}  .083338
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0281907{col 52}{space 2} .0176277{col 63}{space 1}    1.60{col 72}{space 3}0.112{col 80}{space 4}-.0067109{col 93}{space 3} .0630923
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-2.481682{col 52}{space 2}  .971576{col 63}{space 1}   -2.55{col 72}{space 3}0.012{col 80}{space 4}-4.405335{col 93}{space 3}-.5580295
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .55068474
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25807055
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .81992788{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) by(laggedautocracy)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,345}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2col:Over:}{res:laggedautocracy}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 3}laggedautocracy {c |}
{space 16}0  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1335126{col 32}{space 2} .0528818{col 43}{space 1}   -2.52{col 52}{space 3}0.012{col 60}{space 4} -.237159{col 73}{space 3}-.0298661
{txt}{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1723447{col 32}{space 2} .1144113{col 43}{space 1}    1.51{col 52}{space 3}0.132{col 60}{space 4}-.0518973{col 73}{space 3} .3965866
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, level(95) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on bond issuance)yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) xtitle(Autocracy)scheme(s2mono) xlabel(0 "No" 1 "Yes")  graphregion(color(white))legend (off) ylabel(-0.4(0.2)0.4,format(%9.1f))
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:laggedautocracy}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region  leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,345
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1637{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0009{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.4
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0076{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}37{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.34
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8341{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1878349{col 52}{space 2} .0666891{col 63}{space 1}   -2.82{col 72}{space 3}0.006{col 80}{space 4}-.3198747{col 93}{space 3} -.055795
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1335126{col 52}{space 2} .0528818{col 63}{space 1}   -2.52{col 72}{space 3}0.013{col 80}{space 4}-.2382149{col 93}{space 3}-.0288103
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3058572{col 52}{space 2} .1181174{col 63}{space 1}    2.59{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4} .0719929{col 93}{space 3} .5397215
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0010665{col 52}{space 2}  .000611{col 63}{space 1}   -1.75{col 72}{space 3}0.083{col 80}{space 4}-.0022762{col 93}{space 3} .0001432
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0032753{col 52}{space 2} .0019151{col 63}{space 1}    1.71{col 72}{space 3}0.090{col 80}{space 4}-.0005164{col 93}{space 3} .0070671
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  -.00149{col 52}{space 2} .0028588{col 63}{space 1}   -0.52{col 72}{space 3}0.603{col 80}{space 4}-.0071501{col 93}{space 3} .0041702
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3025451{col 52}{space 2} .1066856{col 63}{space 1}    2.84{col 72}{space 3}0.005{col 80}{space 4} .0913151{col 93}{space 3} .5137751
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0005249{col 52}{space 2} .0024732{col 63}{space 1}    0.21{col 72}{space 3}0.832{col 80}{space 4}-.0043718{col 93}{space 3} .0054217
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5477074{col 52}{space 2} .1607309{col 63}{space 1}    3.41{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} .2294713{col 93}{space 3} .8659435
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0037186{col 52}{space 2} .0087005{col 63}{space 1}    0.43{col 72}{space 3}0.670{col 80}{space 4}-.0135078{col 93}{space 3} .0209449
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-5.67e-06{col 52}{space 2} 6.80e-06{col 63}{space 1}   -0.83{col 72}{space 3}0.406{col 80}{space 4}-.0000191{col 93}{space 3} 7.80e-06
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.2398281{col 52}{space 2} .0700049{col 63}{space 1}   -3.43{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} -.378433{col 93}{space 3}-.1012232
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0607846{col 52}{space 2} .0318208{col 63}{space 1}   -1.91{col 72}{space 3}0.058{col 80}{space 4}-.1237876{col 93}{space 3} .0022184
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2242783{col 52}{space 2} .1273412{col 63}{space 1}    1.76{col 72}{space 3}0.081{col 80}{space 4}-.0278484{col 93}{space 3}  .476405
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2531586{col 52}{space 2} .1228417{col 63}{space 1}    2.06{col 72}{space 3}0.041{col 80}{space 4} .0099407{col 93}{space 3} .4963765
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2823456{col 52}{space 2} .1154219{col 63}{space 1}    2.45{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4} .0538183{col 93}{space 3} .5108729
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2527636{col 52}{space 2} .1126259{col 63}{space 1}    2.24{col 72}{space 3}0.027{col 80}{space 4} .0297721{col 93}{space 3}  .475755
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2432689{col 52}{space 2} .1039962{col 63}{space 1}    2.34{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .0373637{col 93}{space 3} .4491741
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2370109{col 52}{space 2} .0972296{col 63}{space 1}    2.44{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4}  .044503{col 93}{space 3} .4295187
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2300178{col 52}{space 2}  .084454{col 63}{space 1}    2.72{col 72}{space 3}0.007{col 80}{space 4} .0628048{col 93}{space 3} .3972309
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1858759{col 52}{space 2} .0792571{col 63}{space 1}    2.35{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .0289524{col 93}{space 3} .3427993
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1885521{col 52}{space 2} .0788323{col 63}{space 1}    2.39{col 72}{space 3}0.018{col 80}{space 4} .0324696{col 93}{space 3} .3446346
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1282911{col 52}{space 2}  .070731{col 63}{space 1}    1.81{col 72}{space 3}0.072{col 80}{space 4}-.0117513{col 93}{space 3} .2683336
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1483406{col 52}{space 2} .0641364{col 63}{space 1}    2.31{col 72}{space 3}0.022{col 80}{space 4}  .021355{col 93}{space 3} .2753263
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1327406{col 52}{space 2} .0617645{col 63}{space 1}    2.15{col 72}{space 3}0.034{col 80}{space 4} .0104511{col 93}{space 3} .2550301
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1139351{col 52}{space 2} .0590044{col 63}{space 1}    1.93{col 72}{space 3}0.056{col 80}{space 4}-.0028895{col 93}{space 3} .2307597
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0798297{col 52}{space 2} .0557754{col 63}{space 1}    1.43{col 72}{space 3}0.155{col 80}{space 4}-.0306018{col 93}{space 3} .1902611
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0517132{col 52}{space 2} .0499814{col 63}{space 1}    1.03{col 72}{space 3}0.303{col 80}{space 4}-.0472466{col 93}{space 3} .1506729
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .025566{col 52}{space 2} .0438645{col 63}{space 1}    0.58{col 72}{space 3}0.561{col 80}{space 4}-.0612826{col 93}{space 3} .1124146
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0118578{col 52}{space 2} .0394682{col 63}{space 1}   -0.30{col 72}{space 3}0.764{col 80}{space 4}-.0900021{col 93}{space 3} .0662865
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0049586{col 52}{space 2} .0418457{col 63}{space 1}   -0.12{col 72}{space 3}0.906{col 80}{space 4}-.0878102{col 93}{space 3} .0778931
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0553408{col 52}{space 2}  .038416{col 63}{space 1}    1.44{col 72}{space 3}0.152{col 80}{space 4}-.0207202{col 93}{space 3} .1314018
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0438663{col 52}{space 2} .0336512{col 63}{space 1}    1.30{col 72}{space 3}0.195{col 80}{space 4}-.0227607{col 93}{space 3} .1104933
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0237679{col 52}{space 2} .0293164{col 63}{space 1}    0.81{col 72}{space 3}0.419{col 80}{space 4}-.0342765{col 93}{space 3} .0818123
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0445338{col 52}{space 2}  .025571{col 63}{space 1}    1.74{col 72}{space 3}0.084{col 80}{space 4} -.006095{col 93}{space 3} .0951627
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0363683{col 52}{space 2} .0237229{col 63}{space 1}    1.53{col 72}{space 3}0.128{col 80}{space 4}-.0106015{col 93}{space 3}  .083338
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0281907{col 52}{space 2} .0176277{col 63}{space 1}    1.60{col 72}{space 3}0.112{col 80}{space 4}-.0067109{col 93}{space 3} .0630923
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-2.481682{col 52}{space 2}  .971576{col 63}{space 1}   -2.55{col 72}{space 3}0.012{col 80}{space 4}-4.405335{col 93}{space 3}-.5580295
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .55068474
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25807055
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .81992788{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. test laggedautocracy -laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule= 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1} {res}laggedautocracy - c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   120) ={res}    9.66
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0023
{txt}
{com}. test laggeddemocracy -laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule= 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1}{space 1}{res}- c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule + o.laggeddemocracy = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   120) ={res}    6.71
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0108
{txt}
{com}. test laggeddemocracy -laggedautocracy= 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1}{space 1}{res}- laggedautocracy + o.laggeddemocracy = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   120) ={res}    7.93
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0057
{txt}
{com}. test laggeddemocracy -nationalfiscalrule= 0 

{p 0 7}{space 1}{text:( 1)}{space 1}{space 1}{res}- nationalfiscalrule + o.laggeddemocracy = 0{p_end}

{txt}       F(  1,   120) ={res}    6.37
{txt}{col 13}Prob > F ={res}    0.0129
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *Appendix F: Robustness tests: Fiscal rule dummy. 
. 
. 
. *Controlling for US treasury rate
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram treasury10yr  i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2014.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,345
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1637{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0009{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.4
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0076{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}37{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.34
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8341{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1878349{col 52}{space 2} .0666891{col 63}{space 1}   -2.82{col 72}{space 3}0.006{col 80}{space 4}-.3198747{col 93}{space 3} -.055795
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1335126{col 52}{space 2} .0528818{col 63}{space 1}   -2.52{col 72}{space 3}0.013{col 80}{space 4}-.2382149{col 93}{space 3}-.0288103
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3058572{col 52}{space 2} .1181174{col 63}{space 1}    2.59{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4} .0719929{col 93}{space 3} .5397215
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0010665{col 52}{space 2}  .000611{col 63}{space 1}   -1.75{col 72}{space 3}0.083{col 80}{space 4}-.0022762{col 93}{space 3} .0001432
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0032753{col 52}{space 2} .0019151{col 63}{space 1}    1.71{col 72}{space 3}0.090{col 80}{space 4}-.0005164{col 93}{space 3} .0070671
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  -.00149{col 52}{space 2} .0028588{col 63}{space 1}   -0.52{col 72}{space 3}0.603{col 80}{space 4}-.0071501{col 93}{space 3} .0041702
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3025451{col 52}{space 2} .1066856{col 63}{space 1}    2.84{col 72}{space 3}0.005{col 80}{space 4} .0913151{col 93}{space 3} .5137751
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0005249{col 52}{space 2} .0024732{col 63}{space 1}    0.21{col 72}{space 3}0.832{col 80}{space 4}-.0043718{col 93}{space 3} .0054217
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5477074{col 52}{space 2} .1607309{col 63}{space 1}    3.41{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} .2294713{col 93}{space 3} .8659435
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0037186{col 52}{space 2} .0087005{col 63}{space 1}    0.43{col 72}{space 3}0.670{col 80}{space 4}-.0135078{col 93}{space 3} .0209449
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-5.67e-06{col 52}{space 2} 6.80e-06{col 63}{space 1}   -0.83{col 72}{space 3}0.406{col 80}{space 4}-.0000191{col 93}{space 3} 7.80e-06
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.2398281{col 52}{space 2} .0700049{col 63}{space 1}   -3.43{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} -.378433{col 93}{space 3}-.1012232
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0607846{col 52}{space 2} .0318208{col 63}{space 1}   -1.91{col 72}{space 3}0.058{col 80}{space 4}-.1237876{col 93}{space 3} .0022184
{txt}{space 26}treasury10yr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0696067{col 52}{space 2} .0435251{col 63}{space 1}    1.60{col 72}{space 3}0.112{col 80}{space 4}  -.01657{col 93}{space 3} .1557834
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1740459{col 52}{space 2} .2799405{col 63}{space 1}   -0.62{col 72}{space 3}0.535{col 80}{space 4}-.7283086{col 93}{space 3} .3802168
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0861159{col 52}{space 2} .2457254{col 63}{space 1}   -0.35{col 72}{space 3}0.727{col 80}{space 4}-.5726352{col 93}{space 3} .4004033
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0221906{col 52}{space 2} .1968062{col 63}{space 1}    0.11{col 72}{space 3}0.910{col 80}{space 4}-.3674719{col 93}{space 3} .4118532
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0913834{col 52}{space 2} .2341924{col 63}{space 1}   -0.39{col 72}{space 3}0.697{col 80}{space 4}-.5550682{col 93}{space 3} .3723013
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0660747{col 52}{space 2} .2138726{col 63}{space 1}   -0.31{col 72}{space 3}0.758{col 80}{space 4}-.4895277{col 93}{space 3} .3573782
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0624719{col 52}{space 2} .2009788{col 63}{space 1}   -0.31{col 72}{space 3}0.756{col 80}{space 4} -.460396{col 93}{space 3} .3354523
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0634903{col 52}{space 2} .1874749{col 63}{space 1}   -0.34{col 72}{space 3}0.735{col 80}{space 4}-.4346776{col 93}{space 3} .3076969
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.031877{col 52}{space 2} .1429451{col 63}{space 1}   -0.22{col 72}{space 3}0.824{col 80}{space 4}-.3148983{col 93}{space 3} .2511443
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0551293{col 52}{space 2} .1592632{col 63}{space 1}   -0.35{col 72}{space 3}0.730{col 80}{space 4}-.3704594{col 93}{space 3} .2602008
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1427109{col 52}{space 2} .1720477{col 63}{space 1}   -0.83{col 72}{space 3}0.408{col 80}{space 4}-.4833534{col 93}{space 3} .1979316
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0522426{col 52}{space 2} .1353717{col 63}{space 1}   -0.39{col 72}{space 3}0.700{col 80}{space 4}-.3202691{col 93}{space 3} .2157839
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0395359{col 52}{space 2} .1187461{col 63}{space 1}   -0.33{col 72}{space 3}0.740{col 80}{space 4}-.2746449{col 93}{space 3} .1955732
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0168675{col 52}{space 2} .0944987{col 63}{space 1}   -0.18{col 72}{space 3}0.859{col 80}{space 4}-.2039683{col 93}{space 3} .1702334
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0690126{col 52}{space 2} .0979285{col 63}{space 1}   -0.70{col 72}{space 3}0.482{col 80}{space 4}-.2629042{col 93}{space 3}  .124879
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0982312{col 52}{space 2} .0912578{col 63}{space 1}   -1.08{col 72}{space 3}0.284{col 80}{space 4}-.2789153{col 93}{space 3} .0824529
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1592977{col 52}{space 2} .1100611{col 63}{space 1}   -1.45{col 72}{space 3}0.150{col 80}{space 4}-.3772111{col 93}{space 3} .0586156
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1854104{col 52}{space 2} .0985715{col 63}{space 1}   -1.88{col 72}{space 3}0.062{col 80}{space 4}-.3805751{col 93}{space 3} .0097542
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1115148{col 52}{space 2} .0629829{col 63}{space 1}   -1.77{col 72}{space 3}0.079{col 80}{space 4}-.2362165{col 93}{space 3} .0131869
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0226767{col 52}{space 2} .0469161{col 63}{space 1}   -0.48{col 72}{space 3}0.630{col 80}{space 4}-.1155673{col 93}{space 3} .0702139
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0311929{col 52}{space 2} .0434204{col 63}{space 1}   -0.72{col 72}{space 3}0.474{col 80}{space 4}-.1171622{col 93}{space 3} .0547764
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0214765{col 52}{space 2} .0261093{col 63}{space 1}   -0.82{col 72}{space 3}0.412{col 80}{space 4} -.073171{col 93}{space 3}  .030218
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0677361{col 52}{space 2} .0362422{col 63}{space 1}    1.87{col 72}{space 3}0.064{col 80}{space 4} -.004021{col 93}{space 3} .1394931
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0214028{col 52}{space 2} .0183318{col 63}{space 1}    1.17{col 72}{space 3}0.245{col 80}{space 4}-.0148928{col 93}{space 3} .0576985
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-2.630351{col 52}{space 2} .9805357{col 63}{space 1}   -2.68{col 72}{space 3}0.008{col 80}{space 4}-4.571743{col 93}{space 3}-.6889581
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .55068474
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25807055
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .81992788{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on bond issuance)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Controlling for central bank independence
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region lvaw_garriga_2012 leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2012.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,940
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       120

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1398{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         2
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0062{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      16.2
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0099{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        22

{txt}{col 49}F({res}35{txt},{res}119{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     4.94
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8925{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:120} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1655253{col 52}{space 2} .0755398{col 63}{space 1}   -2.19{col 72}{space 3}0.030{col 80}{space 4}-.3151017{col 93}{space 3}-.0159489
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0932086{col 52}{space 2} .0608965{col 63}{space 1}   -1.53{col 72}{space 3}0.129{col 80}{space 4}-.2137897{col 93}{space 3} .0273725
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2494111{col 52}{space 2} .1055025{col 63}{space 1}    2.36{col 72}{space 3}0.020{col 80}{space 4} .0405056{col 93}{space 3} .4583167
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.000861{col 52}{space 2} .0006272{col 63}{space 1}   -1.37{col 72}{space 3}0.172{col 80}{space 4}-.0021029{col 93}{space 3} .0003809
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0056717{col 52}{space 2} .0021836{col 63}{space 1}    2.60{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4} .0013479{col 93}{space 3} .0099955
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0030562{col 52}{space 2} .0030108{col 63}{space 1}   -1.02{col 72}{space 3}0.312{col 80}{space 4} -.009018{col 93}{space 3} .0029055
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4153907{col 52}{space 2} .1103498{col 63}{space 1}    3.76{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4} .1968871{col 93}{space 3} .6338943
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0011544{col 52}{space 2} .0026779{col 63}{space 1}   -0.43{col 72}{space 3}0.667{col 80}{space 4} -.006457{col 93}{space 3} .0041482
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .437926{col 52}{space 2} .1719103{col 63}{space 1}    2.55{col 72}{space 3}0.012{col 80}{space 4} .0975264{col 93}{space 3} .7783256
{txt}{space 21}lvaw_garriga_2012 {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1721591{col 52}{space 2} .1342095{col 63}{space 1}   -1.28{col 72}{space 3}0.202{col 80}{space 4}-.4379073{col 93}{space 3} .0935891
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0068673{col 52}{space 2} .0100909{col 63}{space 1}    0.68{col 72}{space 3}0.497{col 80}{space 4}-.0131137{col 93}{space 3} .0268484
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-6.81e-06{col 52}{space 2} 8.07e-06{col 63}{space 1}   -0.84{col 72}{space 3}0.400{col 80}{space 4}-.0000228{col 93}{space 3} 9.17e-06
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.2578035{col 52}{space 2}  .076479{col 63}{space 1}   -3.37{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4}-.4092396{col 93}{space 3}-.1063674
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0514951{col 52}{space 2}  .034214{col 63}{space 1}   -1.51{col 72}{space 3}0.135{col 80}{space 4}-.1192423{col 93}{space 3} .0162521
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1361345{col 52}{space 2}  .133937{col 63}{space 1}    1.02{col 72}{space 3}0.311{col 80}{space 4}-.1290742{col 93}{space 3} .4013432
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1758537{col 52}{space 2} .1312341{col 63}{space 1}    1.34{col 72}{space 3}0.183{col 80}{space 4}-.0840028{col 93}{space 3} .4357103
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2327089{col 52}{space 2}  .123114{col 63}{space 1}    1.89{col 72}{space 3}0.061{col 80}{space 4}-.0110691{col 93}{space 3} .4764868
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2170585{col 52}{space 2} .1148468{col 63}{space 1}    1.89{col 72}{space 3}0.061{col 80}{space 4}-.0103497{col 93}{space 3} .4444666
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2135637{col 52}{space 2} .1066755{col 63}{space 1}    2.00{col 72}{space 3}0.048{col 80}{space 4} .0023356{col 93}{space 3} .4247918
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2150893{col 52}{space 2} .0974325{col 63}{space 1}    2.21{col 72}{space 3}0.029{col 80}{space 4} .0221633{col 93}{space 3} .4080154
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1939293{col 52}{space 2} .0827051{col 63}{space 1}    2.34{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .0301649{col 93}{space 3} .3576937
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1466727{col 52}{space 2}  .078124{col 63}{space 1}    1.88{col 72}{space 3}0.063{col 80}{space 4}-.0080206{col 93}{space 3}  .301366
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1533774{col 52}{space 2}  .076609{col 63}{space 1}    2.00{col 72}{space 3}0.048{col 80}{space 4}  .001684{col 93}{space 3} .3050707
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0880164{col 52}{space 2} .0692334{col 63}{space 1}    1.27{col 72}{space 3}0.206{col 80}{space 4}-.0490726{col 93}{space 3} .2251054
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1051105{col 52}{space 2} .0642083{col 63}{space 1}    1.64{col 72}{space 3}0.104{col 80}{space 4}-.0220283{col 93}{space 3} .2322493
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0936202{col 52}{space 2} .0623415{col 63}{space 1}    1.50{col 72}{space 3}0.136{col 80}{space 4}-.0298221{col 93}{space 3} .2170625
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .073407{col 52}{space 2} .0598944{col 63}{space 1}    1.23{col 72}{space 3}0.223{col 80}{space 4}-.0451898{col 93}{space 3} .1920039
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0415803{col 52}{space 2} .0553744{col 63}{space 1}    0.75{col 72}{space 3}0.454{col 80}{space 4}-.0680665{col 93}{space 3} .1512272
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0091476{col 52}{space 2} .0463782{col 63}{space 1}    0.20{col 72}{space 3}0.844{col 80}{space 4}-.0826858{col 93}{space 3} .1009811
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0177192{col 52}{space 2} .0401296{col 63}{space 1}   -0.44{col 72}{space 3}0.660{col 80}{space 4}-.0971798{col 93}{space 3} .0617414
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0538239{col 52}{space 2} .0330744{col 63}{space 1}   -1.63{col 72}{space 3}0.106{col 80}{space 4}-.1193146{col 93}{space 3} .0116668
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0495428{col 52}{space 2} .0353453{col 63}{space 1}   -1.40{col 72}{space 3}0.164{col 80}{space 4}  -.11953{col 93}{space 3} .0204444
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0005516{col 52}{space 2} .0315371{col 63}{space 1}   -0.02{col 72}{space 3}0.986{col 80}{space 4}-.0629982{col 93}{space 3}  .061895
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.004268{col 52}{space 2} .0279333{col 63}{space 1}   -0.15{col 72}{space 3}0.879{col 80}{space 4}-.0595788{col 93}{space 3} .0510427
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0212236{col 52}{space 2} .0227913{col 63}{space 1}   -0.93{col 72}{space 3}0.354{col 80}{space 4}-.0663527{col 93}{space 3} .0239055
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-3.285907{col 52}{space 2} .9785772{col 63}{space 1}   -3.36{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4}-5.223588{col 93}{space 3}-1.348227
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .67895357
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25517818
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .87622759{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on bond issuance)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *Controlling for inflation
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region inflation_annual leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram   i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,345
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1639{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0009{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.4
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0078{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.75
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8307{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1879144{col 52}{space 2} .0668566{col 63}{space 1}   -2.81{col 72}{space 3}0.006{col 80}{space 4}-.3202859{col 93}{space 3} -.055543
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  -.13368{col 52}{space 2} .0529249{col 63}{space 1}   -2.53{col 72}{space 3}0.013{col 80}{space 4}-.2384676{col 93}{space 3}-.0288924
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3066031{col 52}{space 2} .1186097{col 63}{space 1}    2.58{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4} .0717642{col 93}{space 3}  .541442
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0010562{col 52}{space 2} .0006123{col 63}{space 1}   -1.72{col 72}{space 3}0.087{col 80}{space 4}-.0022685{col 93}{space 3} .0001561
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0032578{col 52}{space 2} .0019149{col 63}{space 1}    1.70{col 72}{space 3}0.091{col 80}{space 4}-.0005336{col 93}{space 3} .0070492
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0012805{col 52}{space 2} .0028043{col 63}{space 1}   -0.46{col 72}{space 3}0.649{col 80}{space 4}-.0068328{col 93}{space 3} .0042717
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2976251{col 52}{space 2} .1077331{col 63}{space 1}    2.76{col 72}{space 3}0.007{col 80}{space 4} .0843212{col 93}{space 3} .5109291
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .000355{col 52}{space 2} .0025037{col 63}{space 1}    0.14{col 72}{space 3}0.887{col 80}{space 4}-.0046021{col 93}{space 3} .0053121
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5461827{col 52}{space 2} .1601696{col 63}{space 1}    3.41{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4}  .229058{col 93}{space 3} .8633073
{txt}{space 22}inflation_annual {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0002832{col 52}{space 2} .0003597{col 63}{space 1}   -0.79{col 72}{space 3}0.433{col 80}{space 4}-.0009955{col 93}{space 3} .0004291
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0035835{col 52}{space 2} .0087097{col 63}{space 1}    0.41{col 72}{space 3}0.681{col 80}{space 4}-.0136612{col 93}{space 3} .0208281
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-5.56e-06{col 52}{space 2} 6.90e-06{col 63}{space 1}   -0.80{col 72}{space 3}0.423{col 80}{space 4}-.0000192{col 93}{space 3} 8.11e-06
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.231973{col 52}{space 2} .0723981{col 63}{space 1}   -3.20{col 72}{space 3}0.002{col 80}{space 4}-.3753161{col 93}{space 3}-.0886299
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0613407{col 52}{space 2} .0317709{col 63}{space 1}   -1.93{col 72}{space 3}0.056{col 80}{space 4}-.1242448{col 93}{space 3} .0015635
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .223112{col 52}{space 2} .1266524{col 63}{space 1}    1.76{col 72}{space 3}0.081{col 80}{space 4}-.0276509{col 93}{space 3}  .473875
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2518699{col 52}{space 2} .1221808{col 63}{space 1}    2.06{col 72}{space 3}0.041{col 80}{space 4} .0099604{col 93}{space 3} .4937795
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2804161{col 52}{space 2} .1146074{col 63}{space 1}    2.45{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4} .0535015{col 93}{space 3} .5073307
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .252284{col 52}{space 2} .1120765{col 63}{space 1}    2.25{col 72}{space 3}0.026{col 80}{space 4} .0303803{col 93}{space 3} .4741877
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2461006{col 52}{space 2}  .104455{col 63}{space 1}    2.36{col 72}{space 3}0.020{col 80}{space 4}  .039287{col 93}{space 3} .4529142
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2365416{col 52}{space 2} .0967801{col 63}{space 1}    2.44{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4} .0449238{col 93}{space 3} .4281594
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2291294{col 52}{space 2}  .084057{col 63}{space 1}    2.73{col 72}{space 3}0.007{col 80}{space 4} .0627024{col 93}{space 3} .3955565
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1846589{col 52}{space 2} .0788971{col 63}{space 1}    2.34{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .0284481{col 93}{space 3} .3408698
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1877162{col 52}{space 2} .0784986{col 63}{space 1}    2.39{col 72}{space 3}0.018{col 80}{space 4} .0322944{col 93}{space 3} .3431379
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1293313{col 52}{space 2} .0706367{col 63}{space 1}    1.83{col 72}{space 3}0.070{col 80}{space 4}-.0105246{col 93}{space 3} .2691871
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1471154{col 52}{space 2} .0639061{col 63}{space 1}    2.30{col 72}{space 3}0.023{col 80}{space 4} .0205857{col 93}{space 3}  .273645
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1321334{col 52}{space 2} .0616042{col 63}{space 1}    2.14{col 72}{space 3}0.034{col 80}{space 4} .0101614{col 93}{space 3} .2541054
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1135489{col 52}{space 2} .0589153{col 63}{space 1}    1.93{col 72}{space 3}0.056{col 80}{space 4}-.0030993{col 93}{space 3}  .230197
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0799179{col 52}{space 2} .0556747{col 63}{space 1}    1.44{col 72}{space 3}0.154{col 80}{space 4}-.0303142{col 93}{space 3} .1901499
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0517954{col 52}{space 2} .0498676{col 63}{space 1}    1.04{col 72}{space 3}0.301{col 80}{space 4}-.0469389{col 93}{space 3} .1505297
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0263153{col 52}{space 2} .0437527{col 63}{space 1}    0.60{col 72}{space 3}0.549{col 80}{space 4} -.060312{col 93}{space 3} .1129425
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0111247{col 52}{space 2} .0393909{col 63}{space 1}   -0.28{col 72}{space 3}0.778{col 80}{space 4} -.089116{col 93}{space 3} .0668666
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0038283{col 52}{space 2} .0417281{col 63}{space 1}   -0.09{col 72}{space 3}0.927{col 80}{space 4}-.0864471{col 93}{space 3} .0787905
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0540306{col 52}{space 2} .0382644{col 63}{space 1}    1.41{col 72}{space 3}0.161{col 80}{space 4}-.0217301{col 93}{space 3} .1297914
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}   .04474{col 52}{space 2} .0334982{col 63}{space 1}    1.34{col 72}{space 3}0.184{col 80}{space 4}-.0215842{col 93}{space 3} .1110642
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0247945{col 52}{space 2} .0291153{col 63}{space 1}    0.85{col 72}{space 3}0.396{col 80}{space 4}-.0328518{col 93}{space 3} .0824408
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0447841{col 52}{space 2} .0255054{col 63}{space 1}    1.76{col 72}{space 3}0.082{col 80}{space 4}-.0057148{col 93}{space 3}  .095283
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0363439{col 52}{space 2} .0237626{col 63}{space 1}    1.53{col 72}{space 3}0.129{col 80}{space 4}-.0107044{col 93}{space 3} .0833921
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0283789{col 52}{space 2} .0176094{col 63}{space 1}    1.61{col 72}{space 3}0.110{col 80}{space 4}-.0064864{col 93}{space 3} .0632443
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-2.436283{col 52}{space 2} .9795434{col 63}{space 1}   -2.49{col 72}{space 3}0.014{col 80}{space 4}-4.375711{col 93}{space 3}-.4968553
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .54573215
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25809434
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .81721718{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on bond issuance )
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Controlling for government transparency
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region hrv leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram   i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2010.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,349
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}        90

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1234{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         6
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0295{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      15.0
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0232{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        20

{txt}{col 49}F({res}33{txt},{res}89{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     3.50
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.9034{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:90} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1309468{col 52}{space 2} .0834604{col 63}{space 1}   -1.57{col 72}{space 3}0.120{col 80}{space 4}-.2967809{col 93}{space 3} .0348872
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1104555{col 52}{space 2} .0638093{col 63}{space 1}   -1.73{col 72}{space 3}0.087{col 80}{space 4}-.2372433{col 93}{space 3} .0163322
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2013692{col 52}{space 2} .1318033{col 63}{space 1}    1.53{col 72}{space 3}0.130{col 80}{space 4}-.0605211{col 93}{space 3} .4632596
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0007111{col 52}{space 2} .0007557{col 63}{space 1}   -0.94{col 72}{space 3}0.349{col 80}{space 4}-.0022127{col 93}{space 3} .0007904
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0054489{col 52}{space 2} .0027304{col 63}{space 1}    2.00{col 72}{space 3}0.049{col 80}{space 4} .0000238{col 93}{space 3} .0108741
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0037587{col 52}{space 2} .0033273{col 63}{space 1}   -1.13{col 72}{space 3}0.262{col 80}{space 4}-.0103701{col 93}{space 3} .0028526
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4679717{col 52}{space 2} .2302812{col 63}{space 1}    2.03{col 72}{space 3}0.045{col 80}{space 4} .0104079{col 93}{space 3} .9255355
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0003357{col 52}{space 2} .0034454{col 63}{space 1}   -0.10{col 72}{space 3}0.923{col 80}{space 4}-.0071816{col 93}{space 3} .0065101
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3365179{col 52}{space 2} .2080051{col 63}{space 1}    1.62{col 72}{space 3}0.109{col 80}{space 4}-.0767839{col 93}{space 3} .7498197
{txt}{space 35}hrv {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0249339{col 52}{space 2} .0290636{col 63}{space 1}   -0.86{col 72}{space 3}0.393{col 80}{space 4}-.0826827{col 93}{space 3} .0328148
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0058797{col 52}{space 2} .0106078{col 63}{space 1}    0.55{col 72}{space 3}0.581{col 80}{space 4}-.0151977{col 93}{space 3} .0269571
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-6.34e-06{col 52}{space 2} .0000127{col 63}{space 1}   -0.50{col 72}{space 3}0.618{col 80}{space 4}-.0000315{col 93}{space 3} .0000188
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.2465771{col 52}{space 2} .0766516{col 63}{space 1}   -3.22{col 72}{space 3}0.002{col 80}{space 4}-.3988822{col 93}{space 3}-.0942719
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0601252{col 52}{space 2}  .040394{col 63}{space 1}   -1.49{col 72}{space 3}0.140{col 80}{space 4}-.1403873{col 93}{space 3} .0201368
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1339089{col 52}{space 2} .1553176{col 63}{space 1}    0.86{col 72}{space 3}0.391{col 80}{space 4}-.1747038{col 93}{space 3} .4425217
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1725549{col 52}{space 2} .1491503{col 63}{space 1}    1.16{col 72}{space 3}0.250{col 80}{space 4}-.1238035{col 93}{space 3} .4689133
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2317555{col 52}{space 2} .1384633{col 63}{space 1}    1.67{col 72}{space 3}0.098{col 80}{space 4} -.043368{col 93}{space 3} .5068791
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2052581{col 52}{space 2} .1393671{col 63}{space 1}    1.47{col 72}{space 3}0.144{col 80}{space 4}-.0716614{col 93}{space 3} .4821776
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2214516{col 52}{space 2} .1300007{col 63}{space 1}    1.70{col 72}{space 3}0.092{col 80}{space 4}-.0368569{col 93}{space 3} .4797602
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2276687{col 52}{space 2} .1180901{col 63}{space 1}    1.93{col 72}{space 3}0.057{col 80}{space 4}-.0069737{col 93}{space 3} .4623111
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .219428{col 52}{space 2} .1031451{col 63}{space 1}    2.13{col 72}{space 3}0.036{col 80}{space 4} .0144809{col 93}{space 3} .4243751
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1539423{col 52}{space 2} .1025012{col 63}{space 1}    1.50{col 72}{space 3}0.137{col 80}{space 4}-.0497253{col 93}{space 3} .3576099
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1805043{col 52}{space 2}   .09937{col 63}{space 1}    1.82{col 72}{space 3}0.073{col 80}{space 4}-.0169417{col 93}{space 3} .3779504
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1314387{col 52}{space 2} .0921433{col 63}{space 1}    1.43{col 72}{space 3}0.157{col 80}{space 4}-.0516481{col 93}{space 3} .3145254
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1550772{col 52}{space 2} .0924109{col 63}{space 1}    1.68{col 72}{space 3}0.097{col 80}{space 4}-.0285412{col 93}{space 3} .3386956
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1213185{col 52}{space 2} .0924528{col 63}{space 1}    1.31{col 72}{space 3}0.193{col 80}{space 4}-.0623833{col 93}{space 3} .3050203
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0959402{col 52}{space 2} .0887125{col 63}{space 1}    1.08{col 72}{space 3}0.282{col 80}{space 4}-.0803296{col 93}{space 3} .2722101
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0605329{col 52}{space 2} .0833489{col 63}{space 1}    0.73{col 72}{space 3}0.470{col 80}{space 4}-.1050795{col 93}{space 3} .2261454
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0349459{col 52}{space 2} .0728494{col 63}{space 1}    0.48{col 72}{space 3}0.633{col 80}{space 4}-.1098043{col 93}{space 3} .1796962
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0195118{col 52}{space 2} .0630118{col 63}{space 1}    0.31{col 72}{space 3}0.758{col 80}{space 4}-.1056912{col 93}{space 3} .1447149
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0086726{col 52}{space 2} .0523384{col 63}{space 1}   -0.17{col 72}{space 3}0.869{col 80}{space 4}-.1126678{col 93}{space 3} .0953226
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0262724{col 52}{space 2} .0449153{col 63}{space 1}   -0.58{col 72}{space 3}0.560{col 80}{space 4}-.1155182{col 93}{space 3} .0629733
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0140932{col 52}{space 2} .0271394{col 63}{space 1}    0.52{col 72}{space 3}0.605{col 80}{space 4}-.0398321{col 93}{space 3} .0680186
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-3.702129{col 52}{space 2} 2.020872{col 63}{space 1}   -1.83{col 72}{space 3}0.070{col 80}{space 4}-7.717559{col 93}{space 3} .3133018
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .70759593
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .26094651
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .88028329{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on bond issuance)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Excluding OECD countries
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram   i.year, fe cluster(ccode), if oecd!=1 
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,891
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       100

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1886{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0038{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      18.9
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0244{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}37{txt},{res}99{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     4.84
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.6904{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:100} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1609122{col 52}{space 2} .0681303{col 63}{space 1}   -2.36{col 72}{space 3}0.020{col 80}{space 4}-.2960975{col 93}{space 3}-.0257269
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1124979{col 52}{space 2} .0727502{col 63}{space 1}   -1.55{col 72}{space 3}0.125{col 80}{space 4}-.2568501{col 93}{space 3} .0318543
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2607846{col 52}{space 2} .1186727{col 63}{space 1}    2.20{col 72}{space 3}0.030{col 80}{space 4} .0253121{col 93}{space 3} .4962571
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0010884{col 52}{space 2} .0006517{col 63}{space 1}   -1.67{col 72}{space 3}0.098{col 80}{space 4}-.0023816{col 93}{space 3} .0002047
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0026064{col 52}{space 2} .0019403{col 63}{space 1}    1.34{col 72}{space 3}0.182{col 80}{space 4}-.0012437{col 93}{space 3} .0064564
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0014172{col 52}{space 2} .0028247{col 63}{space 1}   -0.50{col 72}{space 3}0.617{col 80}{space 4} -.007022{col 93}{space 3} .0041876
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2375502{col 52}{space 2} .1119166{col 63}{space 1}    2.12{col 72}{space 3}0.036{col 80}{space 4} .0154834{col 93}{space 3}  .459617
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0000503{col 52}{space 2} .0025858{col 63}{space 1}    0.02{col 72}{space 3}0.985{col 80}{space 4}-.0050804{col 93}{space 3}  .005181
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5257753{col 52}{space 2} .1792533{col 63}{space 1}    2.93{col 72}{space 3}0.004{col 80}{space 4} .1700979{col 93}{space 3} .8814527
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0088009{col 52}{space 2} .0105219{col 63}{space 1}    0.84{col 72}{space 3}0.405{col 80}{space 4}-.0120768{col 93}{space 3} .0296786
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-5.32e-06{col 52}{space 2} 7.25e-06{col 63}{space 1}   -0.73{col 72}{space 3}0.465{col 80}{space 4}-.0000197{col 93}{space 3} 9.07e-06
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.224855{col 52}{space 2}  .069516{col 63}{space 1}   -3.23{col 72}{space 3}0.002{col 80}{space 4}-.3627898{col 93}{space 3}-.0869202
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.048865{col 52}{space 2} .0333264{col 63}{space 1}   -1.47{col 72}{space 3}0.146{col 80}{space 4}-.1149919{col 93}{space 3} .0172619
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0949995{col 52}{space 2} .1415028{col 63}{space 1}    0.67{col 72}{space 3}0.504{col 80}{space 4}-.1857728{col 93}{space 3} .3757717
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1399176{col 52}{space 2} .1365858{col 63}{space 1}    1.02{col 72}{space 3}0.308{col 80}{space 4}-.1310984{col 93}{space 3} .4109335
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1212635{col 52}{space 2} .1261718{col 63}{space 1}    0.96{col 72}{space 3}0.339{col 80}{space 4}-.1290887{col 93}{space 3} .3716156
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1184491{col 52}{space 2} .1216741{col 63}{space 1}    0.97{col 72}{space 3}0.333{col 80}{space 4}-.1229786{col 93}{space 3} .3598769
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0972224{col 52}{space 2} .1170697{col 63}{space 1}    0.83{col 72}{space 3}0.408{col 80}{space 4}-.1350692{col 93}{space 3}  .329514
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .106347{col 52}{space 2} .1096053{col 63}{space 1}    0.97{col 72}{space 3}0.334{col 80}{space 4}-.1111336{col 93}{space 3} .3238277
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1238011{col 52}{space 2} .0983617{col 63}{space 1}    1.26{col 72}{space 3}0.211{col 80}{space 4}-.0713699{col 93}{space 3} .3189721
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1177703{col 52}{space 2} .0926368{col 63}{space 1}    1.27{col 72}{space 3}0.207{col 80}{space 4}-.0660413{col 93}{space 3} .3015819
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1229722{col 52}{space 2} .0930477{col 63}{space 1}    1.32{col 72}{space 3}0.189{col 80}{space 4}-.0616546{col 93}{space 3} .3075991
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}    .0617{col 52}{space 2} .0827825{col 63}{space 1}    0.75{col 72}{space 3}0.458{col 80}{space 4}-.1025585{col 93}{space 3} .2259585
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1053147{col 52}{space 2} .0776659{col 63}{space 1}    1.36{col 72}{space 3}0.178{col 80}{space 4}-.0487913{col 93}{space 3} .2594208
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0859091{col 52}{space 2} .0754802{col 63}{space 1}    1.14{col 72}{space 3}0.258{col 80}{space 4}  -.06386{col 93}{space 3} .2356783
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0580287{col 52}{space 2} .0716107{col 63}{space 1}    0.81{col 72}{space 3}0.420{col 80}{space 4}-.0840624{col 93}{space 3} .2001198
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0282662{col 52}{space 2} .0669794{col 63}{space 1}    0.42{col 72}{space 3}0.674{col 80}{space 4}-.1046354{col 93}{space 3} .1611677
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0177665{col 52}{space 2} .0591672{col 63}{space 1}    0.30{col 72}{space 3}0.765{col 80}{space 4}-.0996341{col 93}{space 3}  .135167
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0038448{col 52}{space 2} .0514339{col 63}{space 1}   -0.07{col 72}{space 3}0.941{col 80}{space 4}-.1059008{col 93}{space 3} .0982113
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0296075{col 52}{space 2} .0459208{col 63}{space 1}   -0.64{col 72}{space 3}0.521{col 80}{space 4}-.1207243{col 93}{space 3} .0615094
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0231694{col 52}{space 2} .0480747{col 63}{space 1}   -0.48{col 72}{space 3}0.631{col 80}{space 4}  -.11856{col 93}{space 3} .0722211
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0286634{col 52}{space 2} .0435294{col 63}{space 1}    0.66{col 72}{space 3}0.512{col 80}{space 4}-.0577083{col 93}{space 3} .1150351
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .026659{col 52}{space 2} .0402513{col 63}{space 1}    0.66{col 72}{space 3}0.509{col 80}{space 4}-.0532083{col 93}{space 3} .1065263
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0146372{col 52}{space 2}  .033889{col 63}{space 1}    0.43{col 72}{space 3}0.667{col 80}{space 4}-.0526058{col 93}{space 3} .0818803
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0402242{col 52}{space 2} .0289661{col 63}{space 1}    1.39{col 72}{space 3}0.168{col 80}{space 4}-.0172509{col 93}{space 3} .0976992
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0294366{col 52}{space 2}  .027282{col 63}{space 1}    1.08{col 72}{space 3}0.283{col 80}{space 4}-.0246969{col 93}{space 3} .0835701
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0258873{col 52}{space 2} .0200103{col 63}{space 1}    1.29{col 72}{space 3}0.199{col 80}{space 4}-.0138175{col 93}{space 3} .0655921
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-1.756603{col 52}{space 2} .9816035{col 63}{space 1}   -1.79{col 72}{space 3}0.077{col 80}{space 4}-3.704318{col 93}{space 3} .1911109
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .42206941
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .26459508
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .71787358{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on bond issuance)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *Appendix E: probit regression fiscal rule dummy. 
. probit issuanceOutcome c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.ccode i.year, cluster(ccode)

{txt}note: {bf:8.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:8.ccode} omitted and 11 obs not used.

note: {bf:10.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:10.ccode} omitted and 14 obs not used.

note: {bf:13.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:13.ccode} omitted and 13 obs not used.

note: {bf:25.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:25.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:27.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:27.ccode} omitted and 21 obs not used.

note: {bf:31.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:31.ccode} omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: {bf:35.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:35.ccode} omitted and 21 obs not used.

note: {bf:36.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:36.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:40.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:40.ccode} omitted and 18 obs not used.

note: {bf:41.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:41.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:44.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:44.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:46.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:46.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:47.ccode} != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      {bf:47.ccode} omitted and 15 obs not used.

note: {bf:48.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:48.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:56.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:56.ccode} omitted and 18 obs not used.

note: {bf:57.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:57.ccode} omitted and 21 obs not used.

note: {bf:58.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:58.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:59.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:59.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:64.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:64.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:65.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:65.ccode} omitted and 17 obs not used.

note: {bf:67.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:67.ccode} omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: {bf:68.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:68.ccode} omitted and 14 obs not used.

note: {bf:71.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:71.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:72.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:72.ccode} omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: {bf:73.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:73.ccode} omitted and 14 obs not used.

note: {bf:76.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:76.ccode} omitted and 18 obs not used.

note: {bf:80.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:80.ccode} omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: {bf:81.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:81.ccode} omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: {bf:86.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:86.ccode} omitted and 11 obs not used.

note: {bf:87.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:87.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:88.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:88.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:96.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:96.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:98.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:98.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:99.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:99.ccode} omitted and 23 obs not used.

note: {bf:101.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:101.ccode} omitted and 21 obs not used.

note: {bf:110.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:110.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:113.ccode} != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      {bf:113.ccode} omitted and 11 obs not used.

note: {bf:121.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:121.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:124.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:124.ccode} omitted and 19 obs not used.

note: {bf:125.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:125.ccode} omitted and 15 obs not used.

note: {bf:127.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:127.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:128.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:128.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:131.ccode} != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      {bf:131.ccode} omitted and 11 obs not used.

note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.
note: {bf:1.year} identifies no observations in the sample.
note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-980.98423}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-614.17356}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-603.69263}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -603.5242}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-603.52413}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-603.52413}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Probit regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,523}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(36)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-603.52413}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.3848}

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:78} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      z{col 72}   P>|z|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -1.17958{col 52}{space 2} .4208909{col 63}{space 1}   -2.80{col 72}{space 3}0.005{col 80}{space 4}-2.004511{col 93}{space 3}-.3546488
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.7651206{col 52}{space 2} .3865575{col 63}{space 1}   -1.98{col 72}{space 3}0.048{col 80}{space 4}-1.522759{col 93}{space 3}-.0074818
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
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{txt}{space 38} {c |}
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{space 34}DEU  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 34}DNK  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-4.170403{col 52}{space 2} 2.685109{col 63}{space 1}   -1.55{col 72}{space 3}0.120{col 80}{space 4} -9.43312{col 93}{space 3} 1.092315
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{space 34}EST  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-5.493564{col 52}{space 2} 1.518396{col 63}{space 1}   -3.62{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4}-8.469566{col 93}{space 3}-2.517561
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{space 34}GAB  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
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{space 34}HUN  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 34}IDN  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
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{space 34}JOR  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-1.275417{col 52}{space 2} .9003304{col 63}{space 1}   -1.42{col 72}{space 3}0.157{col 80}{space 4}-3.040033{col 93}{space 3} .4891978
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{space 34}SVK  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-4.043102{col 52}{space 2} 1.592157{col 63}{space 1}   -2.54{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4}-7.163672{col 93}{space 3}-.9225314
{txt}{space 34}SVN  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-4.812325{col 52}{space 2} 1.888325{col 63}{space 1}   -2.55{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4}-8.513374{col 93}{space 3}-1.111277
{txt}{space 34}SWE  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-3.790316{col 52}{space 2} 2.321258{col 63}{space 1}   -1.63{col 72}{space 3}0.102{col 80}{space 4}-8.339899{col 93}{space 3} .7592662
{txt}{space 34}THA  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -1.66371{col 52}{space 2} 1.221773{col 63}{space 1}   -1.36{col 72}{space 3}0.173{col 80}{space 4} -4.05834{col 93}{space 3} .7309205
{txt}{space 34}TTO  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-3.672264{col 52}{space 2}  1.37067{col 63}{space 1}   -2.68{col 72}{space 3}0.007{col 80}{space 4}-6.358728{col 93}{space 3}-.9857994
{txt}{space 34}TUN  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-2.035854{col 52}{space 2} .8051209{col 63}{space 1}   -2.53{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4}-3.613863{col 93}{space 3}-.4578464
{txt}{space 34}TUR  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 34}UGA  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.053859{col 52}{space 2} 1.669981{col 63}{space 1}    0.63{col 72}{space 3}0.528{col 80}{space 4}-2.219243{col 93}{space 3} 4.326962
{txt}{space 34}UKR  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 34}URY  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 34}VEN  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 34}VNM  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 34}ZAF  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-2.581083{col 52}{space 2} 1.140692{col 63}{space 1}   -2.26{col 72}{space 3}0.024{col 80}{space 4}-4.816798{col 93}{space 3}-.3453669
{txt}{space 34}ZAR  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 34}ZMB  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3756493{col 52}{space 2}   1.0658{col 63}{space 1}    0.35{col 72}{space 3}0.724{col 80}{space 4} -1.71328{col 93}{space 3} 2.464579
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .8451629{col 52}{space 2} .9475591{col 63}{space 1}    0.89{col 72}{space 3}0.372{col 80}{space 4}-1.012019{col 93}{space 3} 2.702345
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .8175602{col 52}{space 2} .9051141{col 63}{space 1}    0.90{col 72}{space 3}0.366{col 80}{space 4}-.9564308{col 93}{space 3} 2.591551
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.007541{col 52}{space 2} .8240094{col 63}{space 1}    1.22{col 72}{space 3}0.221{col 80}{space 4}-.6074881{col 93}{space 3} 2.622569
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .444046{col 52}{space 2} .7922367{col 63}{space 1}    0.56{col 72}{space 3}0.575{col 80}{space 4}-1.108709{col 93}{space 3} 1.996801
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2411617{col 52}{space 2} .7814564{col 63}{space 1}    0.31{col 72}{space 3}0.758{col 80}{space 4}-1.290465{col 93}{space 3} 1.772788
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2009854{col 52}{space 2} .7079902{col 63}{space 1}    0.28{col 72}{space 3}0.777{col 80}{space 4} -1.18665{col 93}{space 3} 1.588621
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0933393{col 52}{space 2} .6607637{col 63}{space 1}    0.14{col 72}{space 3}0.888{col 80}{space 4}-1.201734{col 93}{space 3} 1.388412
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0226086{col 52}{space 2}  .620068{col 63}{space 1}   -0.04{col 72}{space 3}0.971{col 80}{space 4} -1.23792{col 93}{space 3} 1.192702
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3579333{col 52}{space 2} .5489551{col 63}{space 1}    0.65{col 72}{space 3}0.514{col 80}{space 4}-.7179988{col 93}{space 3} 1.433865
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1941986{col 52}{space 2} .4992012{col 63}{space 1}    0.39{col 72}{space 3}0.697{col 80}{space 4}-.7842178{col 93}{space 3} 1.172615
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0643154{col 52}{space 2} .4690717{col 63}{space 1}   -0.14{col 72}{space 3}0.891{col 80}{space 4}-.9836791{col 93}{space 3} .8550483
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4281438{col 52}{space 2} .4830349{col 63}{space 1}    0.89{col 72}{space 3}0.375{col 80}{space 4}-.5185871{col 93}{space 3} 1.374875
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2975831{col 52}{space 2} .4657025{col 63}{space 1}    0.64{col 72}{space 3}0.523{col 80}{space 4}-.6151771{col 93}{space 3} 1.210343
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1681947{col 52}{space 2} .4395636{col 63}{space 1}    0.38{col 72}{space 3}0.702{col 80}{space 4}-.6933342{col 93}{space 3} 1.029724
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0043801{col 52}{space 2} .4293403{col 63}{space 1}    0.01{col 72}{space 3}0.992{col 80}{space 4}-.8371114{col 93}{space 3} .8458716
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1747786{col 52}{space 2} .3885432{col 63}{space 1}   -0.45{col 72}{space 3}0.653{col 80}{space 4}-.9363092{col 93}{space 3}  .586752
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.2481795{col 52}{space 2} .3709292{col 63}{space 1}   -0.67{col 72}{space 3}0.503{col 80}{space 4}-.9751873{col 93}{space 3} .4788283
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.2857704{col 52}{space 2} .3637854{col 63}{space 1}   -0.79{col 72}{space 3}0.432{col 80}{space 4}-.9987767{col 93}{space 3} .4272359
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3199032{col 52}{space 2} .3645468{col 63}{space 1}    0.88{col 72}{space 3}0.380{col 80}{space 4}-.3945954{col 93}{space 3} 1.034402
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2061034{col 52}{space 2} .3229677{col 63}{space 1}    0.64{col 72}{space 3}0.523{col 80}{space 4}-.4269018{col 93}{space 3} .8391085
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1140089{col 52}{space 2} .3234965{col 63}{space 1}    0.35{col 72}{space 3}0.725{col 80}{space 4}-.5200326{col 93}{space 3} .7480503
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4482247{col 52}{space 2} .3161907{col 63}{space 1}    1.42{col 72}{space 3}0.156{col 80}{space 4}-.1714976{col 93}{space 3} 1.067947
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3253853{col 52}{space 2} .3017796{col 63}{space 1}    1.08{col 72}{space 3}0.281{col 80}{space 4}-.2660919{col 93}{space 3} .9168624
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5165929{col 52}{space 2} .3049719{col 63}{space 1}    1.69{col 72}{space 3}0.090{col 80}{space 4} -.081141{col 93}{space 3} 1.114327
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-7.257053{col 52}{space 2} 6.996218{col 63}{space 1}   -1.04{col 72}{space 3}0.300{col 80}{space 4}-20.96939{col 93}{space 3} 6.455282
{txt}{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on bond issuance )
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Figure 3: Polyarchy index*
. 
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule gov_grossdebt wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr curr_act_gdp issue_region  leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,306
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       118

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1701{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0010{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.5
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0087{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}117{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.40
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8417{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:118} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                           issuanceOutcome{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .492566{col 56}{space 2} .1812061{col 67}{space 1}    2.72{col 76}{space 3}0.008{col 84}{space 4} .1336969{col 97}{space 3} .8514352
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3176969{col 56}{space 2} .2008958{col 67}{space 1}    1.58{col 76}{space 3}0.116{col 84}{space 4}-.0801667{col 97}{space 3} .7155605
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.5311264{col 56}{space 2} .2514838{col 67}{space 1}   -2.11{col 76}{space 3}0.037{col 84}{space 4}-1.029177{col 97}{space 3} -.033076
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0010747{col 56}{space 2} .0005905{col 67}{space 1}   -1.82{col 76}{space 3}0.071{col 84}{space 4}-.0022442{col 97}{space 3} .0000948
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0015285{col 56}{space 2} .0028485{col 67}{space 1}   -0.54{col 76}{space 3}0.593{col 84}{space 4}-.0071698{col 97}{space 3} .0041129
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2858077{col 56}{space 2} .1068342{col 67}{space 1}    2.68{col 76}{space 3}0.009{col 84}{space 4} .0742283{col 97}{space 3} .4973872
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0013599{col 56}{space 2} .0025441{col 67}{space 1}    0.53{col 76}{space 3}0.594{col 84}{space 4}-.0036785{col 97}{space 3} .0063983
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0036678{col 56}{space 2}  .001961{col 67}{space 1}    1.87{col 76}{space 3}0.064{col 84}{space 4}-.0002159{col 97}{space 3} .0075515
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5448714{col 56}{space 2} .1626765{col 67}{space 1}    3.35{col 76}{space 3}0.001{col 84}{space 4} .2226991{col 97}{space 3} .8670436
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0004692{col 56}{space 2} .0089531{col 67}{space 1}   -0.05{col 76}{space 3}0.958{col 84}{space 4}-.0182004{col 97}{space 3} .0172619
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-5.04e-06{col 56}{space 2} 6.80e-06{col 67}{space 1}   -0.74{col 76}{space 3}0.460{col 84}{space 4}-.0000185{col 97}{space 3} 8.42e-06
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.2173688{col 56}{space 2} .0722952{col 67}{space 1}   -3.01{col 76}{space 3}0.003{col 84}{space 4}-.3605456{col 97}{space 3} -.074192
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0724178{col 56}{space 2} .0319179{col 67}{space 1}   -2.27{col 76}{space 3}0.025{col 84}{space 4}-.1356294{col 97}{space 3}-.0092061
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1476055{col 56}{space 2} .1361856{col 67}{space 1}    1.08{col 76}{space 3}0.281{col 84}{space 4}-.1221031{col 97}{space 3}  .417314
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2229607{col 56}{space 2}  .132949{col 67}{space 1}    1.68{col 76}{space 3}0.096{col 84}{space 4}-.0403378{col 97}{space 3} .4862592
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2586491{col 56}{space 2} .1281344{col 67}{space 1}    2.02{col 76}{space 3}0.046{col 84}{space 4} .0048857{col 97}{space 3} .5124126
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2735204{col 56}{space 2} .1187944{col 67}{space 1}    2.30{col 76}{space 3}0.023{col 84}{space 4} .0382543{col 97}{space 3} .5087866
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2437566{col 56}{space 2} .1156403{col 67}{space 1}    2.11{col 76}{space 3}0.037{col 84}{space 4} .0147371{col 97}{space 3} .4727762
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2347327{col 56}{space 2} .1060963{col 67}{space 1}    2.21{col 76}{space 3}0.029{col 84}{space 4} .0246144{col 97}{space 3} .4448509
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2290207{col 56}{space 2} .0989702{col 67}{space 1}    2.31{col 76}{space 3}0.022{col 84}{space 4} .0330153{col 97}{space 3}  .425026
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2142515{col 56}{space 2} .0839539{col 67}{space 1}    2.55{col 76}{space 3}0.012{col 84}{space 4} .0479851{col 97}{space 3} .3805179
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1795835{col 56}{space 2} .0807861{col 67}{space 1}    2.22{col 76}{space 3}0.028{col 84}{space 4} .0195908{col 97}{space 3} .3395762
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1856613{col 56}{space 2} .0817047{col 67}{space 1}    2.27{col 76}{space 3}0.025{col 84}{space 4} .0238495{col 97}{space 3} .3474731
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1203215{col 56}{space 2} .0719902{col 67}{space 1}    1.67{col 76}{space 3}0.097{col 84}{space 4}-.0222513{col 97}{space 3} .2628944
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1505821{col 56}{space 2} .0653017{col 67}{space 1}    2.31{col 76}{space 3}0.023{col 84}{space 4} .0212555{col 97}{space 3} .2799087
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1260046{col 56}{space 2} .0633523{col 67}{space 1}    1.99{col 76}{space 3}0.049{col 84}{space 4} .0005387{col 97}{space 3} .2514705
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1046217{col 56}{space 2} .0607733{col 67}{space 1}    1.72{col 76}{space 3}0.088{col 84}{space 4}-.0157366{col 97}{space 3} .2249799
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0701812{col 56}{space 2} .0582866{col 67}{space 1}    1.20{col 76}{space 3}0.231{col 84}{space 4}-.0452524{col 97}{space 3} .1856148
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0427823{col 56}{space 2} .0524584{col 67}{space 1}    0.82{col 76}{space 3}0.416{col 84}{space 4}-.0611089{col 97}{space 3} .1466734
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0132894{col 56}{space 2} .0452644{col 67}{space 1}    0.29{col 76}{space 3}0.770{col 84}{space 4}-.0763545{col 97}{space 3} .1029332
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0235871{col 56}{space 2}  .040124{col 67}{space 1}   -0.59{col 76}{space 3}0.558{col 84}{space 4}-.1030506{col 97}{space 3} .0558765
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0126877{col 56}{space 2} .0419129{col 67}{space 1}   -0.30{col 76}{space 3}0.763{col 84}{space 4}-.0956941{col 97}{space 3} .0703187
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0534671{col 56}{space 2} .0388879{col 67}{space 1}    1.37{col 76}{space 3}0.172{col 84}{space 4}-.0235484{col 97}{space 3} .1304825
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0387179{col 56}{space 2} .0342886{col 67}{space 1}    1.13{col 76}{space 3}0.261{col 84}{space 4}-.0291888{col 97}{space 3} .1066247
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0191441{col 56}{space 2} .0303151{col 67}{space 1}    0.63{col 76}{space 3}0.529{col 84}{space 4}-.0408934{col 97}{space 3} .0791817
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0430198{col 56}{space 2} .0267871{col 67}{space 1}    1.61{col 76}{space 3}0.111{col 84}{space 4}-.0100308{col 97}{space 3} .0960703
{txt}{space 37}2013  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0342436{col 56}{space 2} .0240236{col 67}{space 1}    1.43{col 76}{space 3}0.157{col 84}{space 4} -.013334{col 97}{space 3} .0818212
{txt}{space 37}2014  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0296642{col 56}{space 2} .0176415{col 67}{space 1}    1.68{col 76}{space 3}0.095{col 84}{space 4} -.005274{col 97}{space 3} .0646023
{txt}{space 37}2015  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.677258{col 56}{space 2} 1.007523{col 67}{space 1}   -2.66{col 76}{space 3}0.009{col 84}{space 4}-4.672605{col 97}{space 3}-.6819106
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} .55580844
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .26142155
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res}  .8188505{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,306}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .3176969{col 32}{space 2} .2008958{col 43}{space 1}    1.58{col 52}{space 3}0.114{col 60}{space 4}-.0760516{col 73}{space 3} .7114454
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2645843{col 32}{space 2} .1766958{col 43}{space 1}    1.50{col 52}{space 3}0.134{col 60}{space 4}-.0817332{col 73}{space 3} .6109017
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2114716{col 32}{space 2} .1528025{col 43}{space 1}    1.38{col 52}{space 3}0.166{col 60}{space 4}-.0880158{col 73}{space 3}  .510959
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}  .158359{col 32}{space 2} .1293857{col 43}{space 1}    1.22{col 52}{space 3}0.221{col 60}{space 4}-.0952324{col 73}{space 3} .4119504
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1052463{col 32}{space 2} .1067596{col 43}{space 1}    0.99{col 52}{space 3}0.324{col 60}{space 4}-.1039987{col 73}{space 3} .3144914
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0521337{col 32}{space 2} .0855538{col 43}{space 1}    0.61{col 52}{space 3}0.542{col 60}{space 4}-.1155486{col 73}{space 3}  .219816
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} -.000979{col 32}{space 2} .0671279{col 43}{space 1}   -0.01{col 52}{space 3}0.988{col 60}{space 4}-.1325473{col 73}{space 3} .1305894
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0540916{col 32}{space 2} .0543852{col 43}{space 1}   -0.99{col 52}{space 3}0.320{col 60}{space 4}-.1606846{col 73}{space 3} .0525015
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1072042{col 32}{space 2} .0517129{col 43}{space 1}   -2.07{col 52}{space 3}0.038{col 60}{space 4}-.2085597{col 73}{space 3}-.0058488
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1603169{col 32}{space 2} .0604614{col 43}{space 1}   -2.65{col 52}{space 3}0.008{col 60}{space 4}-.2788191{col 73}{space 3}-.0418146
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.2134295{col 32}{space 2} .0768233{col 43}{space 1}   -2.78{col 52}{space 3}0.005{col 60}{space 4}-.3640005{col 73}{space 3}-.0628586
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on bond issuance) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Appendix F: Polyarchy index
. 
. *Controlling for US treasury rate
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule gov_grossdebt wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr curr_act_gdp issue_region  treasury10yr leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2014.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,306
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       118

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1701{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0010{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.5
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0087{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}117{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.40
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8417{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:118} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                           issuanceOutcome{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .492566{col 56}{space 2} .1812061{col 67}{space 1}    2.72{col 76}{space 3}0.008{col 84}{space 4} .1336969{col 97}{space 3} .8514352
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3176969{col 56}{space 2} .2008958{col 67}{space 1}    1.58{col 76}{space 3}0.116{col 84}{space 4}-.0801667{col 97}{space 3} .7155605
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.5311264{col 56}{space 2} .2514838{col 67}{space 1}   -2.11{col 76}{space 3}0.037{col 84}{space 4}-1.029177{col 97}{space 3} -.033076
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0010747{col 56}{space 2} .0005905{col 67}{space 1}   -1.82{col 76}{space 3}0.071{col 84}{space 4}-.0022442{col 97}{space 3} .0000948
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0015285{col 56}{space 2} .0028485{col 67}{space 1}   -0.54{col 76}{space 3}0.593{col 84}{space 4}-.0071698{col 97}{space 3} .0041129
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2858077{col 56}{space 2} .1068342{col 67}{space 1}    2.68{col 76}{space 3}0.009{col 84}{space 4} .0742283{col 97}{space 3} .4973872
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0013599{col 56}{space 2} .0025441{col 67}{space 1}    0.53{col 76}{space 3}0.594{col 84}{space 4}-.0036785{col 97}{space 3} .0063983
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0036678{col 56}{space 2}  .001961{col 67}{space 1}    1.87{col 76}{space 3}0.064{col 84}{space 4}-.0002159{col 97}{space 3} .0075515
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5448714{col 56}{space 2} .1626765{col 67}{space 1}    3.35{col 76}{space 3}0.001{col 84}{space 4} .2226991{col 97}{space 3} .8670436
{txt}{space 30}treasury10yr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0732448{col 56}{space 2} .0435594{col 67}{space 1}    1.68{col 76}{space 3}0.095{col 84}{space 4}-.0130223{col 97}{space 3} .1595119
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0004692{col 56}{space 2} .0089531{col 67}{space 1}   -0.05{col 76}{space 3}0.958{col 84}{space 4}-.0182004{col 97}{space 3} .0172619
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-5.04e-06{col 56}{space 2} 6.80e-06{col 67}{space 1}   -0.74{col 76}{space 3}0.460{col 84}{space 4}-.0000185{col 97}{space 3} 8.42e-06
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.2173688{col 56}{space 2} .0722952{col 67}{space 1}   -3.01{col 76}{space 3}0.003{col 84}{space 4}-.3605456{col 97}{space 3} -.074192
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0724178{col 56}{space 2} .0319179{col 67}{space 1}   -2.27{col 76}{space 3}0.025{col 84}{space 4}-.1356294{col 97}{space 3}-.0092061
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.3221991{col 56}{space 2} .3128721{col 67}{space 1}   -1.03{col 76}{space 3}0.305{col 84}{space 4}-.9418259{col 97}{space 3} .2974277
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1961828{col 56}{space 2} .2834128{col 67}{space 1}   -0.69{col 76}{space 3}0.490{col 84}{space 4} -.757467{col 97}{space 3} .3651014
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0983584{col 56}{space 2} .2495879{col 67}{space 1}   -0.39{col 76}{space 3}0.694{col 84}{space 4}-.5926542{col 97}{space 3} .3959374
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0002321{col 56}{space 2} .1990552{col 67}{space 1}   -0.00{col 76}{space 3}0.999{col 84}{space 4}-.3944504{col 97}{space 3} .3939863
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.118378{col 56}{space 2} .2353653{col 67}{space 1}   -0.50{col 76}{space 3}0.616{col 84}{space 4}-.5845065{col 97}{space 3} .3477506
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0907795{col 56}{space 2} .2149747{col 67}{space 1}   -0.42{col 76}{space 3}0.674{col 84}{space 4}-.5165257{col 97}{space 3} .3349667
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0861152{col 56}{space 2} .2027597{col 67}{space 1}   -0.42{col 76}{space 3}0.672{col 84}{space 4}-.4876702{col 97}{space 3} .3154398
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0945975{col 56}{space 2} .1882252{col 67}{space 1}   -0.50{col 76}{space 3}0.616{col 84}{space 4}-.4673676{col 97}{space 3} .2781726
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0495507{col 56}{space 2} .1443329{col 67}{space 1}   -0.34{col 76}{space 3}0.732{col 84}{space 4}-.3353945{col 97}{space 3}  .236293
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0707566{col 56}{space 2}  .160165{col 67}{space 1}   -0.44{col 76}{space 3}0.659{col 84}{space 4}-.3879551{col 97}{space 3} .2464418
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.164845{col 56}{space 2} .1721804{col 67}{space 1}   -0.96{col 76}{space 3}0.340{col 84}{space 4}-.5058392{col 97}{space 3} .1761492
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0604851{col 56}{space 2}  .136469{col 67}{space 1}   -0.44{col 76}{space 3}0.658{col 84}{space 4}-.3307548{col 97}{space 3} .2097846
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0552763{col 56}{space 2} .1197253{col 67}{space 1}   -0.46{col 76}{space 3}0.645{col 84}{space 4} -.292386{col 97}{space 3} .1818334
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0330176{col 56}{space 2} .0961588{col 67}{space 1}   -0.34{col 76}{space 3}0.732{col 84}{space 4}-.2234551{col 97}{space 3} .1574199
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0864406{col 56}{space 2} .0990432{col 67}{space 1}   -0.87{col 76}{space 3}0.385{col 84}{space 4}-.2825906{col 97}{space 3} .1097093
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1149993{col 56}{space 2} .0926081{col 67}{space 1}   -1.24{col 76}{space 3}0.217{col 84}{space 4}-.2984048{col 97}{space 3} .0684063
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1812367{col 56}{space 2}  .110119{col 67}{space 1}   -1.65{col 76}{space 3}0.102{col 84}{space 4}-.3993217{col 97}{space 3} .0368483
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.2062108{col 56}{space 2} .0980876{col 67}{space 1}   -2.10{col 76}{space 3}0.038{col 84}{space 4}-.4004681{col 97}{space 3}-.0119535
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1248133{col 56}{space 2} .0624761{col 67}{space 1}   -2.00{col 76}{space 3}0.048{col 84}{space 4}-.2485439{col 97}{space 3}-.0010827
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0286282{col 56}{space 2} .0470992{col 67}{space 1}   -0.61{col 76}{space 3}0.544{col 84}{space 4}-.1219056{col 97}{space 3} .0646493
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0402644{col 56}{space 2} .0431747{col 67}{space 1}   -0.93{col 76}{space 3}0.353{col 84}{space 4}-.1257696{col 97}{space 3} .0452408
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.028465{col 56}{space 2} .0268822{col 67}{space 1}   -1.06{col 76}{space 3}0.292{col 84}{space 4}-.0817039{col 97}{space 3} .0247739
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0674347{col 56}{space 2} .0374021{col 67}{space 1}    1.80{col 76}{space 3}0.074{col 84}{space 4}-.0066382{col 97}{space 3} .1415076
{txt}{space 37}2013  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0184959{col 56}{space 2} .0186007{col 67}{space 1}    0.99{col 76}{space 3}0.322{col 84}{space 4}-.0183418{col 97}{space 3} .0553337
{txt}{space 37}2014  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 37}2015  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.833697{col 56}{space 2} 1.014388{col 67}{space 1}   -2.79{col 76}{space 3}0.006{col 84}{space 4}-4.842639{col 97}{space 3}-.8247539
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} .55580844
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .26142155
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res}  .8188505{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,306}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .3176969{col 32}{space 2} .2008958{col 43}{space 1}    1.58{col 52}{space 3}0.114{col 60}{space 4}-.0760516{col 73}{space 3} .7114454
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2645843{col 32}{space 2} .1766958{col 43}{space 1}    1.50{col 52}{space 3}0.134{col 60}{space 4}-.0817332{col 73}{space 3} .6109017
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2114716{col 32}{space 2} .1528025{col 43}{space 1}    1.38{col 52}{space 3}0.166{col 60}{space 4}-.0880158{col 73}{space 3}  .510959
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}  .158359{col 32}{space 2} .1293857{col 43}{space 1}    1.22{col 52}{space 3}0.221{col 60}{space 4}-.0952324{col 73}{space 3} .4119504
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1052463{col 32}{space 2} .1067596{col 43}{space 1}    0.99{col 52}{space 3}0.324{col 60}{space 4}-.1039987{col 73}{space 3} .3144914
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0521337{col 32}{space 2} .0855538{col 43}{space 1}    0.61{col 52}{space 3}0.542{col 60}{space 4}-.1155486{col 73}{space 3}  .219816
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} -.000979{col 32}{space 2} .0671279{col 43}{space 1}   -0.01{col 52}{space 3}0.988{col 60}{space 4}-.1325473{col 73}{space 3} .1305894
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0540916{col 32}{space 2} .0543852{col 43}{space 1}   -0.99{col 52}{space 3}0.320{col 60}{space 4}-.1606846{col 73}{space 3} .0525015
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1072042{col 32}{space 2} .0517129{col 43}{space 1}   -2.07{col 52}{space 3}0.038{col 60}{space 4}-.2085597{col 73}{space 3}-.0058488
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1603169{col 32}{space 2} .0604614{col 43}{space 1}   -2.65{col 52}{space 3}0.008{col 60}{space 4}-.2788191{col 73}{space 3}-.0418146
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.2134295{col 32}{space 2} .0768233{col 43}{space 1}   -2.78{col 52}{space 3}0.005{col 60}{space 4}-.3640005{col 73}{space 3}-.0628586
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on bond issuance ) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Controlling for central bank independence
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule gov_grossdebt wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr curr_act_gdp issue_region lvaw_garriga_2012  leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2012.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,907
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       117

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1508{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         2
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0071{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      16.3
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0117{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        23

{txt}{col 49}F({res}36{txt},{res}116{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     4.76
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8946{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:117} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                           issuanceOutcome{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .4921739{col 56}{space 2} .2045377{col 67}{space 1}    2.41{col 76}{space 3}0.018{col 84}{space 4} .0870613{col 97}{space 3} .8972865
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2925381{col 56}{space 2} .2058395{col 67}{space 1}    1.42{col 76}{space 3}0.158{col 84}{space 4}-.1151529{col 97}{space 3} .7002291
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.4502558{col 56}{space 2} .2621902{col 67}{space 1}   -1.72{col 76}{space 3}0.089{col 84}{space 4}-.9695565{col 97}{space 3}  .069045
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0008536{col 56}{space 2} .0006124{col 67}{space 1}   -1.39{col 76}{space 3}0.166{col 84}{space 4}-.0020664{col 97}{space 3} .0003592
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0030284{col 56}{space 2} .0030562{col 67}{space 1}   -0.99{col 76}{space 3}0.324{col 84}{space 4}-.0090816{col 97}{space 3} .0030247
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3863298{col 56}{space 2}  .114185{col 67}{space 1}    3.38{col 76}{space 3}0.001{col 84}{space 4}  .160172{col 97}{space 3} .6124875
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0003561{col 56}{space 2} .0027446{col 67}{space 1}   -0.13{col 76}{space 3}0.897{col 84}{space 4} -.005792{col 97}{space 3} .0050799
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0062428{col 56}{space 2} .0022202{col 67}{space 1}    2.81{col 76}{space 3}0.006{col 84}{space 4} .0018455{col 97}{space 3} .0106402
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .4566873{col 56}{space 2} .1794949{col 67}{space 1}    2.54{col 76}{space 3}0.012{col 84}{space 4} .1011751{col 97}{space 3} .8121995
{txt}{space 25}lvaw_garriga_2012 {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.149155{col 56}{space 2} .1295973{col 67}{space 1}   -1.15{col 76}{space 3}0.252{col 84}{space 4}-.4058387{col 97}{space 3} .1075287
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0021927{col 56}{space 2} .0102888{col 67}{space 1}    0.21{col 76}{space 3}0.832{col 84}{space 4}-.0181857{col 97}{space 3} .0225711
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-5.92e-06{col 56}{space 2} 8.17e-06{col 67}{space 1}   -0.72{col 76}{space 3}0.470{col 84}{space 4}-.0000221{col 97}{space 3} .0000103
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.2382907{col 56}{space 2} .0802483{col 67}{space 1}   -2.97{col 76}{space 3}0.004{col 84}{space 4}-.3972326{col 97}{space 3}-.0793488
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0573173{col 56}{space 2} .0337196{col 67}{space 1}   -1.70{col 76}{space 3}0.092{col 84}{space 4}-.1241032{col 97}{space 3} .0094687
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0682889{col 56}{space 2} .1532026{col 67}{space 1}    0.45{col 76}{space 3}0.657{col 84}{space 4}-.2351481{col 97}{space 3} .3717259
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .154758{col 56}{space 2} .1483805{col 67}{space 1}    1.04{col 76}{space 3}0.299{col 84}{space 4}-.1391282{col 97}{space 3} .4486443
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1973657{col 56}{space 2} .1441339{col 67}{space 1}    1.37{col 76}{space 3}0.174{col 84}{space 4}-.0881098{col 97}{space 3} .4828411
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2444099{col 56}{space 2} .1336469{col 67}{space 1}    1.83{col 76}{space 3}0.070{col 84}{space 4}-.0202946{col 97}{space 3} .5091143
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .227831{col 56}{space 2} .1248633{col 67}{space 1}    1.82{col 76}{space 3}0.071{col 84}{space 4}-.0194765{col 97}{space 3} .4751385
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2202129{col 56}{space 2} .1144826{col 67}{space 1}    1.92{col 76}{space 3}0.057{col 84}{space 4}-.0065342{col 97}{space 3}   .44696
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2193567{col 56}{space 2} .1042032{col 67}{space 1}    2.11{col 76}{space 3}0.037{col 84}{space 4} .0129691{col 97}{space 3} .4257443
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1860386{col 56}{space 2} .0858305{col 67}{space 1}    2.17{col 76}{space 3}0.032{col 84}{space 4} .0160404{col 97}{space 3} .3560367
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1473362{col 56}{space 2} .0830208{col 67}{space 1}    1.77{col 76}{space 3}0.079{col 84}{space 4} -.017097{col 97}{space 3} .3117694
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .156433{col 56}{space 2} .0822884{col 67}{space 1}    1.90{col 76}{space 3}0.060{col 84}{space 4}-.0065496{col 97}{space 3} .3194155
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0849097{col 56}{space 2} .0737436{col 67}{space 1}    1.15{col 76}{space 3}0.252{col 84}{space 4}-.0611487{col 97}{space 3} .2309682
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1099857{col 56}{space 2} .0680521{col 67}{space 1}    1.62{col 76}{space 3}0.109{col 84}{space 4}-.0248001{col 97}{space 3} .2447715
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0900229{col 56}{space 2}  .065864{col 67}{space 1}    1.37{col 76}{space 3}0.174{col 84}{space 4}-.0404291{col 97}{space 3} .2204749
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0672134{col 56}{space 2} .0640525{col 67}{space 1}    1.05{col 76}{space 3}0.296{col 84}{space 4}-.0596506{col 97}{space 3} .1940774
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0360177{col 56}{space 2} .0592787{col 67}{space 1}    0.61{col 76}{space 3}0.545{col 84}{space 4}-.0813912{col 97}{space 3} .1534266
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0041492{col 56}{space 2} .0508059{col 67}{space 1}    0.08{col 76}{space 3}0.935{col 84}{space 4}-.0964782{col 97}{space 3} .1047767
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0260922{col 56}{space 2} .0431038{col 67}{space 1}   -0.61{col 76}{space 3}0.546{col 84}{space 4}-.1114648{col 97}{space 3} .0592804
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0620137{col 56}{space 2}  .034944{col 67}{space 1}   -1.77{col 76}{space 3}0.079{col 84}{space 4}-.1312248{col 97}{space 3} .0071973
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0534055{col 56}{space 2} .0362966{col 67}{space 1}   -1.47{col 76}{space 3}0.144{col 84}{space 4}-.1252955{col 97}{space 3} .0184845
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0002569{col 56}{space 2}  .032375{col 67}{space 1}    0.01{col 76}{space 3}0.994{col 84}{space 4} -.063866{col 97}{space 3} .0643798
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0065893{col 56}{space 2} .0288766{col 67}{space 1}   -0.23{col 76}{space 3}0.820{col 84}{space 4}-.0637832{col 97}{space 3} .0506045
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0238529{col 56}{space 2} .0237636{col 67}{space 1}   -1.00{col 76}{space 3}0.318{col 84}{space 4}-.0709198{col 97}{space 3}  .023214
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.402045{col 56}{space 2} 1.056169{col 67}{space 1}   -3.22{col 76}{space 3}0.002{col 84}{space 4} -5.49392{col 97}{space 3} -1.31017
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} .67627582
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25861544
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res} .87241892{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,907}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2925381{col 32}{space 2} .2058395{col 43}{space 1}    1.42{col 52}{space 3}0.155{col 60}{space 4}-.1108998{col 73}{space 3} .6959761
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2475125{col 32}{space 2} .1807849{col 43}{space 1}    1.37{col 52}{space 3}0.171{col 60}{space 4}-.1068194{col 73}{space 3} .6018445
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}  .202487{col 32}{space 2} .1561133{col 43}{space 1}    1.30{col 52}{space 3}0.195{col 60}{space 4}-.1034895{col 73}{space 3} .5084634
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1574614{col 32}{space 2} .1320394{col 43}{space 1}    1.19{col 52}{space 3}0.233{col 60}{space 4}-.1013312{col 73}{space 3} .4162539
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1124358{col 32}{space 2} .1089603{col 43}{space 1}    1.03{col 52}{space 3}0.302{col 60}{space 4}-.1011224{col 73}{space 3}  .325994
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0674102{col 32}{space 2} .0876649{col 43}{space 1}    0.77{col 52}{space 3}0.442{col 60}{space 4}-.1044099{col 73}{space 3} .2392303
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0223846{col 32}{space 2} .0698055{col 43}{space 1}    0.32{col 52}{space 3}0.748{col 60}{space 4}-.1144317{col 73}{space 3}  .159201
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0226409{col 32}{space 2} .0586119{col 43}{space 1}   -0.39{col 52}{space 3}0.699{col 60}{space 4}-.1375182{col 73}{space 3} .0922364
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0676665{col 32}{space 2} .0580756{col 43}{space 1}   -1.17{col 52}{space 3}0.244{col 60}{space 4}-.1814927{col 73}{space 3} .0461597
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1126921{col 32}{space 2} .0684476{col 43}{space 1}   -1.65{col 52}{space 3}0.100{col 60}{space 4}-.2468469{col 73}{space 3} .0214628
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1577176{col 32}{space 2} .0858618{col 43}{space 1}   -1.84{col 52}{space 3}0.066{col 60}{space 4}-.3260036{col 73}{space 3} .0105683
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on bond issuance ) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Controlling for inflation
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule gov_grossdebt wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr curr_act_gdp issue_region inflation_annual leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram  i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,306
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       118

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1703{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0010{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.5
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0089{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}39{txt},{res}117{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.85
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8380{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:118} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                           issuanceOutcome{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .4937347{col 56}{space 2} .1814162{col 67}{space 1}    2.72{col 76}{space 3}0.007{col 84}{space 4} .1344494{col 97}{space 3} .8530199
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3192088{col 56}{space 2} .2020716{col 67}{space 1}    1.58{col 76}{space 3}0.117{col 84}{space 4}-.0809835{col 97}{space 3} .7194012
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.5331853{col 56}{space 2} .2527992{col 67}{space 1}   -2.11{col 76}{space 3}0.037{col 84}{space 4}-1.033841{col 97}{space 3}-.0325297
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0010629{col 56}{space 2} .0005913{col 67}{space 1}   -1.80{col 76}{space 3}0.075{col 84}{space 4} -.002234{col 97}{space 3} .0001082
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0013094{col 56}{space 2} .0028024{col 67}{space 1}   -0.47{col 76}{space 3}0.641{col 84}{space 4}-.0068594{col 97}{space 3} .0042406
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2801636{col 56}{space 2} .1079042{col 67}{space 1}    2.60{col 76}{space 3}0.011{col 84}{space 4} .0664651{col 97}{space 3} .4938622
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0011645{col 56}{space 2} .0025764{col 67}{space 1}    0.45{col 76}{space 3}0.652{col 84}{space 4}-.0039378{col 97}{space 3} .0062669
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0036524{col 56}{space 2} .0019615{col 67}{space 1}    1.86{col 76}{space 3}0.065{col 84}{space 4}-.0002322{col 97}{space 3}  .007537
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5430398{col 56}{space 2} .1621551{col 67}{space 1}    3.35{col 76}{space 3}0.001{col 84}{space 4}    .2219{col 97}{space 3} .8641795
{txt}{space 26}inflation_annual {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.000313{col 56}{space 2} .0003547{col 67}{space 1}   -0.88{col 76}{space 3}0.379{col 84}{space 4}-.0010155{col 97}{space 3} .0003895
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0006675{col 56}{space 2} .0089586{col 67}{space 1}   -0.07{col 76}{space 3}0.941{col 84}{space 4}-.0184096{col 97}{space 3} .0170745
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.91e-06{col 56}{space 2} 6.91e-06{col 67}{space 1}   -0.71{col 76}{space 3}0.479{col 84}{space 4}-.0000186{col 97}{space 3} 8.77e-06
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.2086698{col 56}{space 2} .0747538{col 67}{space 1}   -2.79{col 76}{space 3}0.006{col 84}{space 4}-.3567158{col 97}{space 3}-.0606237
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0731097{col 56}{space 2} .0318951{col 67}{space 1}   -2.29{col 76}{space 3}0.024{col 84}{space 4}-.1362764{col 97}{space 3}-.0099431
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1464226{col 56}{space 2} .1354646{col 67}{space 1}    1.08{col 76}{space 3}0.282{col 84}{space 4}-.1218579{col 97}{space 3} .4147032
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2216059{col 56}{space 2} .1322489{col 67}{space 1}    1.68{col 76}{space 3}0.096{col 84}{space 4}-.0403062{col 97}{space 3} .4835179
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2571826{col 56}{space 2} .1275332{col 67}{space 1}    2.02{col 76}{space 3}0.046{col 84}{space 4} .0046097{col 97}{space 3} .5097554
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2713293{col 56}{space 2}  .118007{col 67}{space 1}    2.30{col 76}{space 3}0.023{col 84}{space 4} .0376227{col 97}{space 3} .5050359
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2431884{col 56}{space 2} .1150924{col 67}{space 1}    2.11{col 76}{space 3}0.037{col 84}{space 4} .0152539{col 97}{space 3}  .471123
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2379433{col 56}{space 2} .1065648{col 67}{space 1}    2.23{col 76}{space 3}0.027{col 84}{space 4} .0268973{col 97}{space 3} .4489894
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2284588{col 56}{space 2} .0985341{col 67}{space 1}    2.32{col 76}{space 3}0.022{col 84}{space 4} .0333171{col 97}{space 3} .4236004
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2130658{col 56}{space 2} .0835541{col 67}{space 1}    2.55{col 76}{space 3}0.012{col 84}{space 4} .0475913{col 97}{space 3} .3785404
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1781204{col 56}{space 2} .0804564{col 67}{space 1}    2.21{col 76}{space 3}0.029{col 84}{space 4} .0187807{col 97}{space 3}   .33746
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1846381{col 56}{space 2} .0813922{col 67}{space 1}    2.27{col 76}{space 3}0.025{col 84}{space 4} .0234451{col 97}{space 3} .3458311
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1213648{col 56}{space 2} .0718555{col 67}{space 1}    1.69{col 76}{space 3}0.094{col 84}{space 4}-.0209411{col 97}{space 3} .2636708
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1491825{col 56}{space 2}  .065084{col 67}{space 1}    2.29{col 76}{space 3}0.024{col 84}{space 4}  .020287{col 97}{space 3}  .278078
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1252759{col 56}{space 2} .0632085{col 67}{space 1}    1.98{col 76}{space 3}0.050{col 84}{space 4} .0000947{col 97}{space 3} .2504571
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1041466{col 56}{space 2} .0606971{col 67}{space 1}    1.72{col 76}{space 3}0.089{col 84}{space 4}-.0160608{col 97}{space 3} .2243541
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0702718{col 56}{space 2} .0581887{col 67}{space 1}    1.21{col 76}{space 3}0.230{col 84}{space 4}-.0449679{col 97}{space 3} .1855115
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0428385{col 56}{space 2} .0523544{col 67}{space 1}    0.82{col 76}{space 3}0.415{col 84}{space 4}-.0608466{col 97}{space 3} .1465236
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0141444{col 56}{space 2} .0451336{col 67}{space 1}    0.31{col 76}{space 3}0.755{col 84}{space 4}-.0752404{col 97}{space 3} .1035292
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0227534{col 56}{space 2} .0400132{col 67}{space 1}   -0.57{col 76}{space 3}0.571{col 84}{space 4}-.1019974{col 97}{space 3} .0564906
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0114002{col 56}{space 2} .0417295{col 67}{space 1}   -0.27{col 76}{space 3}0.785{col 84}{space 4}-.0940433{col 97}{space 3} .0712428
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0519919{col 56}{space 2} .0387314{col 67}{space 1}    1.34{col 76}{space 3}0.182{col 84}{space 4}-.0247135{col 97}{space 3} .1286973
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0397421{col 56}{space 2} .0340913{col 67}{space 1}    1.17{col 76}{space 3}0.246{col 84}{space 4}-.0277739{col 97}{space 3} .1072581
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0203593{col 56}{space 2}  .030068{col 67}{space 1}    0.68{col 76}{space 3}0.500{col 84}{space 4}-.0391888{col 97}{space 3} .0799074
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0433205{col 56}{space 2} .0267246{col 67}{space 1}    1.62{col 76}{space 3}0.108{col 84}{space 4}-.0096062{col 97}{space 3} .0962471
{txt}{space 37}2013  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0342475{col 56}{space 2} .0240636{col 67}{space 1}    1.42{col 76}{space 3}0.157{col 84}{space 4}-.0134092{col 97}{space 3} .0819042
{txt}{space 37}2014  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0299069{col 56}{space 2} .0176168{col 67}{space 1}    1.70{col 76}{space 3}0.092{col 84}{space 4}-.0049822{col 97}{space 3} .0647961
{txt}{space 37}2015  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.625825{col 56}{space 2} 1.014319{col 67}{space 1}   -2.59{col 76}{space 3}0.011{col 84}{space 4} -4.63463{col 97}{space 3}-.6170203
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} .55009757
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res}  .2614393
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res} .81574589{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,306}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .3192088{col 32}{space 2} .2020716{col 43}{space 1}    1.58{col 52}{space 3}0.114{col 60}{space 4}-.0768443{col 73}{space 3}  .715262
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2658903{col 32}{space 2} .1777353{col 43}{space 1}    1.50{col 52}{space 3}0.135{col 60}{space 4}-.0824644{col 73}{space 3}  .614245
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2125718{col 32}{space 2} .1537037{col 43}{space 1}    1.38{col 52}{space 3}0.167{col 60}{space 4} -.088682{col 73}{space 3} .5138256
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1592532{col 32}{space 2} .1301461{col 43}{space 1}    1.22{col 52}{space 3}0.221{col 60}{space 4}-.0958284{col 73}{space 3} .4143349
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1059347{col 32}{space 2} .1073747{col 43}{space 1}    0.99{col 52}{space 3}0.324{col 60}{space 4}-.1045158{col 73}{space 3} .3163853
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0526162{col 32}{space 2} .0860162{col 43}{space 1}    0.61{col 52}{space 3}0.541{col 60}{space 4}-.1159726{col 73}{space 3} .2212049
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0007024{col 32}{space 2} .0674271{col 43}{space 1}   -0.01{col 52}{space 3}0.992{col 60}{space 4} -.132857{col 73}{space 3} .1314523
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0540209{col 32}{space 2} .0545177{col 43}{space 1}   -0.99{col 52}{space 3}0.322{col 60}{space 4}-.1608735{col 73}{space 3} .0528318
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1073394{col 32}{space 2} .0517309{col 43}{space 1}   -2.07{col 52}{space 3}0.038{col 60}{space 4}-.2087302{col 73}{space 3}-.0059487
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1606579{col 32}{space 2} .0604827{col 43}{space 1}   -2.66{col 52}{space 3}0.008{col 60}{space 4}-.2792018{col 73}{space 3}-.0421141
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.2139765{col 32}{space 2} .0769309{col 43}{space 1}   -2.78{col 52}{space 3}0.005{col 60}{space 4}-.3647583{col 73}{space 3}-.0631947
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on bond issuance) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Controlling for government transparency
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule gov_grossdebt wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr curr_act_gdp issue_region hrv leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram  i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2010.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,371
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}        90

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1443{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         6
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0304{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      15.2
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0263{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        21

{txt}{col 49}F({res}34{txt},{res}89{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     3.65
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8962{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:90} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                           issuanceOutcome{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .4982066{col 56}{space 2} .2199981{col 67}{space 1}    2.26{col 76}{space 3}0.026{col 84}{space 4}  .061075{col 97}{space 3} .9353383
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3050993{col 56}{space 2} .2634925{col 67}{space 1}    1.16{col 76}{space 3}0.250{col 84}{space 4}-.2184547{col 97}{space 3} .8286533
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.4985697{col 56}{space 2}  .325298{col 67}{space 1}   -1.53{col 76}{space 3}0.129{col 84}{space 4} -1.14493{col 97}{space 3} .1477905
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0005004{col 56}{space 2} .0007257{col 67}{space 1}   -0.69{col 76}{space 3}0.492{col 84}{space 4}-.0019424{col 97}{space 3} .0009416
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0029784{col 56}{space 2}   .00331{col 67}{space 1}   -0.90{col 76}{space 3}0.371{col 84}{space 4}-.0095554{col 97}{space 3} .0035986
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .4195945{col 56}{space 2}  .217187{col 67}{space 1}    1.93{col 76}{space 3}0.057{col 84}{space 4}-.0119514{col 97}{space 3} .8511404
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0003311{col 56}{space 2} .0033913{col 67}{space 1}    0.10{col 76}{space 3}0.922{col 84}{space 4}-.0064073{col 97}{space 3} .0070695
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0053841{col 56}{space 2} .0026585{col 67}{space 1}    2.03{col 76}{space 3}0.046{col 84}{space 4} .0001018{col 97}{space 3} .0106664
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3779721{col 56}{space 2} .2165568{col 67}{space 1}    1.75{col 76}{space 3}0.084{col 84}{space 4}-.0523216{col 97}{space 3} .8082658
{txt}{space 39}hrv {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.026244{col 56}{space 2} .0288812{col 67}{space 1}   -0.91{col 76}{space 3}0.366{col 84}{space 4}-.0836304{col 97}{space 3} .0311424
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0024352{col 56}{space 2} .0107192{col 67}{space 1}    0.23{col 76}{space 3}0.821{col 84}{space 4}-.0188635{col 97}{space 3} .0237339
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.93e-06{col 56}{space 2} .0000128{col 67}{space 1}   -0.38{col 76}{space 3}0.702{col 84}{space 4}-.0000305{col 97}{space 3} .0000206
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.2320912{col 56}{space 2} .0813034{col 67}{space 1}   -2.85{col 76}{space 3}0.005{col 84}{space 4}-.3936393{col 97}{space 3}-.0705432
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0609789{col 56}{space 2}  .039534{col 67}{space 1}   -1.54{col 76}{space 3}0.127{col 84}{space 4}-.1395322{col 97}{space 3} .0175744
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0578125{col 56}{space 2} .1629687{col 67}{space 1}    0.35{col 76}{space 3}0.724{col 84}{space 4}-.2660029{col 97}{space 3} .3816278
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1591535{col 56}{space 2} .1606528{col 67}{space 1}    0.99{col 76}{space 3}0.325{col 84}{space 4}-.1600603{col 97}{space 3} .4783672
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .201884{col 56}{space 2} .1536925{col 67}{space 1}    1.31{col 76}{space 3}0.192{col 84}{space 4}-.1034998{col 97}{space 3} .5072678
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2423057{col 56}{space 2} .1395139{col 67}{space 1}    1.74{col 76}{space 3}0.086{col 84}{space 4}-.0349056{col 97}{space 3} .5195169
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2132637{col 56}{space 2} .1392661{col 67}{space 1}    1.53{col 76}{space 3}0.129{col 84}{space 4}-.0634549{col 97}{space 3} .4899824
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2272955{col 56}{space 2} .1286372{col 67}{space 1}    1.77{col 76}{space 3}0.081{col 84}{space 4}-.0283038{col 97}{space 3} .4828949
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2336181{col 56}{space 2} .1168488{col 67}{space 1}    2.00{col 76}{space 3}0.049{col 84}{space 4} .0014419{col 97}{space 3} .4657943
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2197433{col 56}{space 2} .0997373{col 67}{space 1}    2.20{col 76}{space 3}0.030{col 84}{space 4} .0215674{col 97}{space 3} .4179192
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1617197{col 56}{space 2} .1011025{col 67}{space 1}    1.60{col 76}{space 3}0.113{col 84}{space 4}-.0391689{col 97}{space 3} .3626083
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1889934{col 56}{space 2} .0990788{col 67}{space 1}    1.91{col 76}{space 3}0.060{col 84}{space 4}-.0078741{col 97}{space 3} .3858609
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1323385{col 56}{space 2}  .090373{col 67}{space 1}    1.46{col 76}{space 3}0.147{col 84}{space 4}-.0472308{col 97}{space 3} .3119077
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1617238{col 56}{space 2} .0904861{col 67}{space 1}    1.79{col 76}{space 3}0.077{col 84}{space 4}-.0180701{col 97}{space 3} .3415178
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1215464{col 56}{space 2} .0908065{col 67}{space 1}    1.34{col 76}{space 3}0.184{col 84}{space 4}-.0588843{col 97}{space 3}  .301977
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0951179{col 56}{space 2}  .087613{col 67}{space 1}    1.09{col 76}{space 3}0.281{col 84}{space 4}-.0789672{col 97}{space 3} .2692031
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0595485{col 56}{space 2} .0827988{col 67}{space 1}    0.72{col 76}{space 3}0.474{col 84}{space 4}-.1049709{col 97}{space 3}  .224068
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0363449{col 56}{space 2} .0731662{col 67}{space 1}    0.50{col 76}{space 3}0.621{col 84}{space 4}-.1090348{col 97}{space 3} .1817246
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0197938{col 56}{space 2} .0629572{col 67}{space 1}    0.31{col 76}{space 3}0.754{col 84}{space 4}-.1053008{col 97}{space 3} .1448883
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.006049{col 56}{space 2} .0524826{col 67}{space 1}   -0.12{col 76}{space 3}0.909{col 84}{space 4}-.1103309{col 97}{space 3} .0982329
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0245265{col 56}{space 2} .0447655{col 67}{space 1}   -0.55{col 76}{space 3}0.585{col 84}{space 4}-.1134746{col 97}{space 3} .0644216
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0183029{col 56}{space 2} .0267051{col 67}{space 1}    0.69{col 76}{space 3}0.495{col 84}{space 4}-.0347595{col 97}{space 3} .0713653
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -3.67469{col 56}{space 2} 1.921721{col 67}{space 1}   -1.91{col 76}{space 3}0.059{col 84}{space 4} -7.49311{col 97}{space 3} .1437287
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} .67955796
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res}  .2602864
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res} .87206257{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,371}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .3050993{col 32}{space 2} .2634925{col 43}{space 1}    1.16{col 52}{space 3}0.247{col 60}{space 4}-.2113365{col 73}{space 3} .8215351
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2552423{col 32}{space 2}  .231952{col 43}{space 1}    1.10{col 52}{space 3}0.271{col 60}{space 4}-.1993753{col 73}{space 3} .7098599
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2053854{col 32}{space 2} .2007276{col 43}{space 1}    1.02{col 52}{space 3}0.306{col 60}{space 4}-.1880334{col 73}{space 3} .5988042
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1555284{col 32}{space 2} .1699934{col 43}{space 1}    0.91{col 52}{space 3}0.360{col 60}{space 4}-.1776525{col 73}{space 3} .4887093
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1056714{col 32}{space 2} .1400726{col 43}{space 1}    0.75{col 52}{space 3}0.451{col 60}{space 4}-.1688658{col 73}{space 3} .3802086
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0558145{col 32}{space 2} .1116211{col 43}{space 1}    0.50{col 52}{space 3}0.617{col 60}{space 4}-.1629589{col 73}{space 3} .2745878
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0059575{col 32}{space 2} .0861081{col 43}{space 1}    0.07{col 52}{space 3}0.945{col 60}{space 4}-.1628112{col 73}{space 3} .1747262
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0438995{col 32}{space 2} .0669798{col 43}{space 1}   -0.66{col 52}{space 3}0.512{col 60}{space 4}-.1751776{col 73}{space 3} .0873786
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0937565{col 32}{space 2} .0606166{col 43}{space 1}   -1.55{col 52}{space 3}0.122{col 60}{space 4}-.2125629{col 73}{space 3} .0250499
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1436134{col 32}{space 2} .0705608{col 43}{space 1}   -2.04{col 52}{space 3}0.042{col 60}{space 4}  -.28191{col 73}{space 3}-.0053168
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1934704{col 32}{space 2} .0916496{col 43}{space 1}   -2.11{col 52}{space 3}0.035{col 60}{space 4}-.3731004{col 73}{space 3}-.0138404
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on bond issuance) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. *Excluding OECD countries
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule gov_grossdebt wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr curr_act_gdp issue_region  leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster(ccode), if oecd!=1 
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,841
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}        97

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1904{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0063{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.0
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0314{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}96{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     4.76
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.6850{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:97} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                           issuanceOutcome{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .4121638{col 56}{space 2} .1803491{col 67}{space 1}    2.29{col 76}{space 3}0.024{col 84}{space 4} .0541736{col 97}{space 3} .7701539
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}   .21602{col 56}{space 2} .2205445{col 67}{space 1}    0.98{col 76}{space 3}0.330{col 84}{space 4}-.2217575{col 97}{space 3} .6537974
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.3928918{col 56}{space 2} .3198271{col 67}{space 1}   -1.23{col 76}{space 3}0.222{col 84}{space 4}-1.027744{col 97}{space 3}   .24196
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0011077{col 56}{space 2} .0006556{col 67}{space 1}   -1.69{col 76}{space 3}0.094{col 84}{space 4}-.0024089{col 97}{space 3} .0001936
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.001611{col 56}{space 2} .0028816{col 67}{space 1}   -0.56{col 76}{space 3}0.577{col 84}{space 4} -.007331{col 97}{space 3} .0041089
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2257805{col 56}{space 2} .1144767{col 67}{space 1}    1.97{col 76}{space 3}0.051{col 84}{space 4}-.0014539{col 97}{space 3} .4530149
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0007886{col 56}{space 2} .0026393{col 67}{space 1}    0.30{col 76}{space 3}0.766{col 84}{space 4}-.0044503{col 97}{space 3} .0060276
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0028096{col 56}{space 2} .0019989{col 67}{space 1}    1.41{col 76}{space 3}0.163{col 84}{space 4}-.0011581{col 97}{space 3} .0067773
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5146966{col 56}{space 2} .1775291{col 67}{space 1}    2.90{col 76}{space 3}0.005{col 84}{space 4}  .162304{col 97}{space 3} .8670891
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0023664{col 56}{space 2} .0108844{col 67}{space 1}    0.22{col 76}{space 3}0.828{col 84}{space 4}-.0192389{col 97}{space 3} .0239717
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-5.10e-06{col 56}{space 2} 7.22e-06{col 67}{space 1}   -0.71{col 76}{space 3}0.482{col 84}{space 4}-.0000194{col 97}{space 3} 9.23e-06
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.2029047{col 56}{space 2}  .074728{col 67}{space 1}   -2.72{col 76}{space 3}0.008{col 84}{space 4}-.3512386{col 97}{space 3}-.0545709
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0583432{col 56}{space 2} .0342115{col 67}{space 1}   -1.71{col 76}{space 3}0.091{col 84}{space 4}-.1262525{col 97}{space 3} .0095661
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1076701{col 56}{space 2} .1630505{col 67}{space 1}    0.66{col 76}{space 3}0.511{col 84}{space 4}-.2159826{col 97}{space 3} .4313227
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0848359{col 56}{space 2} .1456695{col 67}{space 1}    0.58{col 76}{space 3}0.562{col 84}{space 4}-.2043158{col 97}{space 3} .3739876
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1386214{col 56}{space 2} .1401444{col 67}{space 1}    0.99{col 76}{space 3}0.325{col 84}{space 4}-.1395631{col 97}{space 3} .4168059
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0979455{col 56}{space 2} .1264407{col 67}{space 1}    0.77{col 76}{space 3}0.440{col 84}{space 4}-.1530373{col 97}{space 3} .3489282
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0981771{col 56}{space 2} .1222374{col 67}{space 1}    0.80{col 76}{space 3}0.424{col 84}{space 4}-.1444623{col 97}{space 3} .3408165
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0777373{col 56}{space 2} .1170706{col 67}{space 1}    0.66{col 76}{space 3}0.508{col 84}{space 4} -.154646{col 97}{space 3} .3101206
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0886419{col 56}{space 2} .1105075{col 67}{space 1}    0.80{col 76}{space 3}0.424{col 84}{space 4}-.1307138{col 97}{space 3} .3079977
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0992694{col 56}{space 2} .0971554{col 67}{space 1}    1.02{col 76}{space 3}0.309{col 84}{space 4}-.0935825{col 97}{space 3} .2921213
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1044938{col 56}{space 2} .0940307{col 67}{space 1}    1.11{col 76}{space 3}0.269{col 84}{space 4}-.0821556{col 97}{space 3} .2911433
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1141705{col 56}{space 2} .0964894{col 67}{space 1}    1.18{col 76}{space 3}0.240{col 84}{space 4}-.0773594{col 97}{space 3} .3057004
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0493125{col 56}{space 2} .0850533{col 67}{space 1}    0.58{col 76}{space 3}0.563{col 84}{space 4}-.1195169{col 97}{space 3}  .218142
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1033312{col 56}{space 2} .0805792{col 67}{space 1}    1.28{col 76}{space 3}0.203{col 84}{space 4}-.0566173{col 97}{space 3} .2632797
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0742222{col 56}{space 2} .0787302{col 67}{space 1}    0.94{col 76}{space 3}0.348{col 84}{space 4}-.0820559{col 97}{space 3} .2305004
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0435642{col 56}{space 2} .0751722{col 67}{space 1}    0.58{col 76}{space 3}0.564{col 84}{space 4}-.1056514{col 97}{space 3} .1927797
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0140534{col 56}{space 2} .0714629{col 67}{space 1}    0.20{col 76}{space 3}0.845{col 84}{space 4}-.1277994{col 97}{space 3} .1559063
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0048613{col 56}{space 2} .0633992{col 67}{space 1}    0.08{col 76}{space 3}0.939{col 84}{space 4}-.1209851{col 97}{space 3} .1307077
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0191208{col 56}{space 2} .0542472{col 67}{space 1}   -0.35{col 76}{space 3}0.725{col 84}{space 4}-.1268006{col 97}{space 3}  .088559
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0443192{col 56}{space 2} .0475424{col 67}{space 1}   -0.93{col 76}{space 3}0.354{col 84}{space 4}  -.13869{col 97}{space 3} .0500517
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0334396{col 56}{space 2} .0485764{col 67}{space 1}   -0.69{col 76}{space 3}0.493{col 84}{space 4}-.1298629{col 97}{space 3} .0629838
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0244444{col 56}{space 2} .0444523{col 67}{space 1}    0.55{col 76}{space 3}0.584{col 84}{space 4}-.0637929{col 97}{space 3} .1126816
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0202151{col 56}{space 2} .0413013{col 67}{space 1}    0.49{col 76}{space 3}0.626{col 84}{space 4}-.0617673{col 97}{space 3} .1021974
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0090597{col 56}{space 2} .0355739{col 67}{space 1}    0.25{col 76}{space 3}0.800{col 84}{space 4}-.0615539{col 97}{space 3} .0796732
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0382878{col 56}{space 2} .0304324{col 67}{space 1}    1.26{col 76}{space 3}0.211{col 84}{space 4}-.0221201{col 97}{space 3} .0986957
{txt}{space 37}2013  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0265583{col 56}{space 2}  .027993{col 67}{space 1}    0.95{col 76}{space 3}0.345{col 84}{space 4}-.0290074{col 97}{space 3}  .082124
{txt}{space 37}2014  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0278044{col 56}{space 2} .0202872{col 67}{space 1}    1.37{col 76}{space 3}0.174{col 84}{space 4}-.0124655{col 97}{space 3} .0680742
{txt}{space 37}2015  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.909138{col 56}{space 2} 1.026619{col 67}{space 1}   -1.86{col 76}{space 3}0.066{col 84}{space 4}-3.946961{col 97}{space 3}  .128684
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} .41403936
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .26925313
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res}  .7027898{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,841}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}   .21602{col 32}{space 2} .2205445{col 43}{space 1}    0.98{col 52}{space 3}0.327{col 60}{space 4}-.2162394{col 73}{space 3} .6482793
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1767308{col 32}{space 2} .1903243{col 43}{space 1}    0.93{col 52}{space 3}0.353{col 60}{space 4} -.196298{col 73}{space 3} .5497596
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1374416{col 32}{space 2} .1607874{col 43}{space 1}    0.85{col 52}{space 3}0.393{col 60}{space 4}-.1776959{col 73}{space 3} .4525791
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0981524{col 32}{space 2} .1323919{col 43}{space 1}    0.74{col 52}{space 3}0.458{col 60}{space 4}-.1613309{col 73}{space 3} .3576357
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0588632{col 32}{space 2} .1060586{col 43}{space 1}    0.56{col 52}{space 3}0.579{col 60}{space 4}-.1490078{col 73}{space 3} .2667343
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0195741{col 32}{space 2} .0837558{col 43}{space 1}    0.23{col 52}{space 3}0.815{col 60}{space 4}-.1445842{col 73}{space 3} .1837323
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0197151{col 32}{space 2} .0694796{col 43}{space 1}   -0.28{col 52}{space 3}0.777{col 60}{space 4}-.1558926{col 73}{space 3} .1164624
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0590043{col 32}{space 2} .0684514{col 43}{space 1}   -0.86{col 52}{space 3}0.389{col 60}{space 4}-.1931665{col 73}{space 3}  .075158
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0982935{col 32}{space 2} .0811761{col 43}{space 1}   -1.21{col 52}{space 3}0.226{col 60}{space 4}-.2573957{col 73}{space 3} .0608088
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1375826{col 32}{space 2} .1026611{col 43}{space 1}   -1.34{col 52}{space 3}0.180{col 60}{space 4}-.3387948{col 73}{space 3} .0636295
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1768718{col 32}{space 2} .1285879{col 43}{space 1}   -1.38{col 52}{space 3}0.169{col 60}{space 4}-.4288995{col 73}{space 3} .0751558
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on issuance) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *Appendix E: Probit regression Polyarchy index. 
. probit issuanceOutcome  c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule gov_grossdebt wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr curr_act_gdp issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.ccode  i.year, cluster(ccode)

{txt}note: {bf:8.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:8.ccode} omitted and 11 obs not used.

note: {bf:10.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:10.ccode} omitted and 14 obs not used.

note: {bf:13.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:13.ccode} omitted and 13 obs not used.

note: {bf:25.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:25.ccode} omitted and 26 obs not used.

note: {bf:27.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:27.ccode} omitted and 21 obs not used.

note: {bf:31.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:31.ccode} omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: {bf:35.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:35.ccode} omitted and 21 obs not used.

note: {bf:36.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:36.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:40.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:40.ccode} omitted and 18 obs not used.

note: {bf:41.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:41.ccode} omitted and 26 obs not used.

note: {bf:44.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:44.ccode} omitted and 26 obs not used.

note: {bf:47.ccode} != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      {bf:47.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:56.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:56.ccode} omitted and 18 obs not used.

note: {bf:57.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:57.ccode} omitted and 21 obs not used.

note: {bf:58.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:58.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:59.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:59.ccode} omitted and 25 obs not used.

note: {bf:64.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:64.ccode} omitted and 26 obs not used.

note: {bf:65.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:65.ccode} omitted and 17 obs not used.

note: {bf:67.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:67.ccode} omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: {bf:68.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:68.ccode} omitted and 14 obs not used.

note: {bf:71.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:71.ccode} omitted and 26 obs not used.

note: {bf:72.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:72.ccode} omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: {bf:73.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:73.ccode} omitted and 14 obs not used.

note: {bf:76.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:76.ccode} omitted and 18 obs not used.

note: {bf:80.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:80.ccode} omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: {bf:81.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:81.ccode} omitted and 20 obs not used.

note: {bf:86.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:86.ccode} omitted and 11 obs not used.

note: {bf:87.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:87.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:88.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:88.ccode} omitted and 26 obs not used.

note: {bf:98.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:98.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:99.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:99.ccode} omitted and 23 obs not used.

note: {bf:101.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:101.ccode} omitted and 21 obs not used.

note: {bf:113.ccode} != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      {bf:113.ccode} omitted and 11 obs not used.

note: {bf:121.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:121.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:124.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:124.ccode} omitted and 19 obs not used.

note: {bf:125.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:125.ccode} omitted and 15 obs not used.

note: {bf:127.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:127.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:128.ccode} != 0 predicts success perfectly;
      {bf:128.ccode} omitted and 16 obs not used.

note: {bf:131.ccode} != 0 predicts failure perfectly;
      {bf:131.ccode} omitted and 11 obs not used.

note: {bf:1.year} identifies no observations in the sample.
note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.
{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -995.5012}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-582.59672}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-566.66349}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-566.02394}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-566.01556}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-566.01554}  
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Probit regression{col 57}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:1,577}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:{help j_robustsingular##|_new:Wald chi2(37)}}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Prob > chi2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:.}
{txt}{col 1}{lalign 20:Log pseudolikelihood}{col 21} = {res}{ralign 10:-566.01554}{txt}{col 57}{lalign 13:Pseudo R2}{col 70} = {res}{ralign 6:0.4314}

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:79} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                           issuanceOutcome{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      z{col 76}   P>|z|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 3.593015{col 56}{space 2} .9188167{col 67}{space 1}    3.91{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4} 1.792167{col 97}{space 3} 5.393863
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 2.663864{col 56}{space 2} 1.871154{col 67}{space 1}    1.42{col 76}{space 3}0.155{col 84}{space 4}-1.003529{col 97}{space 3} 6.331258
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.050678{col 56}{space 2} 2.343565{col 67}{space 1}   -1.73{col 76}{space 3}0.084{col 84}{space 4}-8.643981{col 97}{space 3} .5426248
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0072369{col 56}{space 2} .0037307{col 67}{space 1}   -1.94{col 76}{space 3}0.052{col 84}{space 4} -.014549{col 97}{space 3} .0000751
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0156492{col 56}{space 2} .0213506{col 67}{space 1}   -0.73{col 76}{space 3}0.464{col 84}{space 4}-.0574956{col 97}{space 3} .0261972
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1838187{col 56}{space 2} .7290665{col 67}{space 1}    0.25{col 76}{space 3}0.801{col 84}{space 4}-1.245125{col 97}{space 3} 1.612763
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .030289{col 56}{space 2} .0156865{col 67}{space 1}    1.93{col 76}{space 3}0.053{col 84}{space 4}-.0004559{col 97}{space 3} .0610339
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0231443{col 56}{space 2} .0121384{col 67}{space 1}    1.91{col 76}{space 3}0.057{col 84}{space 4}-.0006465{col 97}{space 3} .0469352
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 2.661212{col 56}{space 2} 1.068249{col 67}{space 1}    2.49{col 76}{space 3}0.013{col 84}{space 4} .5674833{col 97}{space 3} 4.754941
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1267951{col 56}{space 2} .0863412{col 67}{space 1}   -1.47{col 76}{space 3}0.142{col 84}{space 4}-.2960207{col 97}{space 3} .0424305
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0003228{col 56}{space 2} .0002188{col 67}{space 1}   -1.48{col 76}{space 3}0.140{col 84}{space 4}-.0007517{col 97}{space 3} .0001061
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.7209804{col 56}{space 2} .3244664{col 67}{space 1}   -2.22{col 76}{space 3}0.026{col 84}{space 4}-1.356923{col 97}{space 3} -.085038
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1216076{col 56}{space 2} .2183512{col 67}{space 1}   -0.56{col 76}{space 3}0.578{col 84}{space 4}-.5495681{col 97}{space 3} .3063529
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}ccode {c |}
{space 38}ALB  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.012877{col 56}{space 2} .9547754{col 67}{space 1}   -3.16{col 76}{space 3}0.002{col 84}{space 4}-4.884203{col 97}{space 3}-1.141552
{txt}{space 38}ARG  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.462818{col 56}{space 2} 1.294347{col 67}{space 1}   -1.13{col 76}{space 3}0.258{col 84}{space 4}-3.999691{col 97}{space 3} 1.074055
{txt}{space 38}ARM  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.454833{col 56}{space 2} 1.078384{col 67}{space 1}   -1.35{col 76}{space 3}0.177{col 84}{space 4}-3.568427{col 97}{space 3} .6587617
{txt}{space 38}AUS  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.670025{col 56}{space 2} 2.313338{col 67}{space 1}   -1.59{col 76}{space 3}0.113{col 84}{space 4}-8.204084{col 97}{space 3}  .864034
{txt}{space 38}AUT  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}AZE  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.530339{col 56}{space 2} .5874524{col 67}{space 1}   -4.31{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-3.681724{col 97}{space 3}-1.378953
{txt}{space 38}BEL  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}BEN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.150226{col 56}{space 2} 1.353722{col 67}{space 1}   -2.33{col 76}{space 3}0.020{col 84}{space 4}-5.803471{col 97}{space 3}-.4969799
{txt}{space 38}BFA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.170564{col 56}{space 2} 1.429677{col 67}{space 1}   -1.52{col 76}{space 3}0.129{col 84}{space 4}-4.972678{col 97}{space 3} .6315509
{txt}{space 38}BGD  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}BGR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.457229{col 56}{space 2} 1.069704{col 67}{space 1}   -3.23{col 76}{space 3}0.001{col 84}{space 4}-5.553811{col 97}{space 3}-1.360646
{txt}{space 38}BHR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.410744{col 56}{space 2} 1.654176{col 67}{space 1}   -0.85{col 76}{space 3}0.394{col 84}{space 4} -4.65287{col 97}{space 3} 1.831381
{txt}{space 38}BIH  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.330562{col 56}{space 2}  1.00185{col 67}{space 1}   -4.32{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-6.294153{col 97}{space 3}-2.366971
{txt}{space 38}BLR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.470508{col 56}{space 2} .9660957{col 67}{space 1}   -1.52{col 76}{space 3}0.128{col 84}{space 4}-3.364021{col 97}{space 3} .4230047
{txt}{space 38}BOL  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.056492{col 56}{space 2} .9016508{col 67}{space 1}   -2.28{col 76}{space 3}0.023{col 84}{space 4}-3.823695{col 97}{space 3}-.2892886
{txt}{space 38}BRA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.427043{col 56}{space 2} 1.518828{col 67}{space 1}   -1.60{col 76}{space 3}0.110{col 84}{space 4} -5.40389{col 97}{space 3} .5498043
{txt}{space 38}BRB  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.704639{col 56}{space 2} 1.613891{col 67}{space 1}   -2.30{col 76}{space 3}0.022{col 84}{space 4}-6.867808{col 97}{space 3}-.5414705
{txt}{space 38}BWA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -5.20077{col 56}{space 2} 1.045552{col 67}{space 1}   -4.97{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-7.250015{col 97}{space 3}-3.151525
{txt}{space 38}CHE  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}CHL  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.283211{col 56}{space 2} 1.394566{col 67}{space 1}   -1.64{col 76}{space 3}0.102{col 84}{space 4} -5.01651{col 97}{space 3}  .450088
{txt}{space 38}CHN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}CIV  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.806009{col 56}{space 2} .9557126{col 67}{space 1}   -1.89{col 76}{space 3}0.059{col 84}{space 4}-3.679172{col 97}{space 3}  .067153
{txt}{space 38}CMR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.112346{col 56}{space 2} .9845987{col 67}{space 1}   -2.15{col 76}{space 3}0.032{col 84}{space 4}-4.042124{col 97}{space 3} -.182568
{txt}{space 38}COG  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.450186{col 56}{space 2} .3312228{col 67}{space 1}   -4.38{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-2.099371{col 97}{space 3} -.801001
{txt}{space 38}COL  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}CPV  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.144884{col 56}{space 2} .9815081{col 67}{space 1}   -4.22{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-6.068604{col 97}{space 3}-2.221163
{txt}{space 38}CRI  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.203717{col 56}{space 2} 1.239409{col 67}{space 1}   -1.78{col 76}{space 3}0.075{col 84}{space 4}-4.632914{col 97}{space 3} .2254799
{txt}{space 38}CYP  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.139018{col 56}{space 2} 2.008512{col 67}{space 1}   -1.56{col 76}{space 3}0.118{col 84}{space 4} -7.07563{col 97}{space 3} .7975945
{txt}{space 38}CZE  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}DEU  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}DNK  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -2.13195{col 56}{space 2}  2.49924{col 67}{space 1}   -0.85{col 76}{space 3}0.394{col 84}{space 4} -7.03037{col 97}{space 3} 2.766471
{txt}{space 38}DOM  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.426933{col 56}{space 2}  .991293{col 67}{space 1}   -2.45{col 76}{space 3}0.014{col 84}{space 4}-4.369832{col 97}{space 3}-.4840345
{txt}{space 38}ECU  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-5.158327{col 56}{space 2} .8658814{col 67}{space 1}   -5.96{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-6.855423{col 97}{space 3}-3.461231
{txt}{space 38}EGY  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}ESP  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}EST  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -4.95484{col 56}{space 2} 1.520126{col 67}{space 1}   -3.26{col 76}{space 3}0.001{col 84}{space 4}-7.934233{col 97}{space 3}-1.975447
{txt}{space 38}FIN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}FJI  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -2.41374{col 56}{space 2} .9661134{col 67}{space 1}   -2.50{col 76}{space 3}0.012{col 84}{space 4}-4.307288{col 97}{space 3}-.5201928
{txt}{space 38}FRA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.104057{col 56}{space 2} 2.474098{col 67}{space 1}   -0.45{col 76}{space 3}0.655{col 84}{space 4}  -5.9532{col 97}{space 3} 3.745085
{txt}{space 38}GAB  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}GBR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.7175946{col 56}{space 2} 2.481561{col 67}{space 1}   -0.29{col 76}{space 3}0.772{col 84}{space 4}-5.581366{col 97}{space 3} 4.146176
{txt}{space 38}GEO  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.874929{col 56}{space 2} .9857487{col 67}{space 1}   -2.92{col 76}{space 3}0.004{col 84}{space 4}-4.806961{col 97}{space 3}-.9428973
{txt}{space 38}GHA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.588319{col 56}{space 2} 1.105415{col 67}{space 1}   -2.34{col 76}{space 3}0.019{col 84}{space 4}-4.754893{col 97}{space 3}-.4217446
{txt}{space 38}GRC  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.147204{col 56}{space 2} 2.009492{col 67}{space 1}   -1.07{col 76}{space 3}0.285{col 84}{space 4}-6.085736{col 97}{space 3} 1.791328
{txt}{space 38}GTM  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.468688{col 56}{space 2} .8911105{col 67}{space 1}   -3.89{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-5.215232{col 97}{space 3}-1.722143
{txt}{space 38}HND  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.835711{col 56}{space 2} .9586892{col 67}{space 1}   -1.91{col 76}{space 3}0.056{col 84}{space 4}-3.714708{col 97}{space 3} .0432849
{txt}{space 38}HRV  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}HUN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}IDN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}IND  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}IRL  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.519506{col 56}{space 2} 2.531228{col 67}{space 1}   -1.79{col 76}{space 3}0.074{col 84}{space 4}-9.480621{col 97}{space 3} .4416099
{txt}{space 38}IRQ  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.565228{col 56}{space 2} .6921746{col 67}{space 1}   -3.71{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-3.921865{col 97}{space 3}-1.208591
{txt}{space 38}ISL  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.127752{col 56}{space 2} 2.219154{col 67}{space 1}   -1.86{col 76}{space 3}0.063{col 84}{space 4}-8.477213{col 97}{space 3}   .22171
{txt}{space 38}ISR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.122529{col 56}{space 2} 1.994081{col 67}{space 1}   -1.06{col 76}{space 3}0.287{col 84}{space 4}-6.030855{col 97}{space 3} 1.785797
{txt}{space 38}ITA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}JAM  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}JOR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.7718889{col 56}{space 2} .9295617{col 67}{space 1}   -0.83{col 76}{space 3}0.406{col 84}{space 4}-2.593796{col 97}{space 3} 1.050019
{txt}{space 38}JPN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}KAZ  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}KEN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.4769522{col 56}{space 2} 1.585912{col 67}{space 1}   -0.30{col 76}{space 3}0.764{col 84}{space 4}-3.585282{col 97}{space 3} 2.631378
{txt}{space 38}KGZ  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.858857{col 56}{space 2}  1.33925{col 67}{space 1}   -2.13{col 76}{space 3}0.033{col 84}{space 4}-5.483738{col 97}{space 3} -.233975
{txt}{space 38}KOR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}KWT  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}LBN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}LKA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.440337{col 56}{space 2} 1.098376{col 67}{space 1}   -2.22{col 76}{space 3}0.026{col 84}{space 4}-4.593114{col 97}{space 3}-.2875594
{txt}{space 38}LSO  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.790497{col 56}{space 2} 1.179606{col 67}{space 1}   -2.37{col 76}{space 3}0.018{col 84}{space 4}-5.102482{col 97}{space 3}-.4785119
{txt}{space 38}LTU  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}LUX  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-5.771277{col 56}{space 2} 2.725886{col 67}{space 1}   -2.12{col 76}{space 3}0.034{col 84}{space 4}-11.11392{col 97}{space 3}-.4286381
{txt}{space 38}LVA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.183055{col 56}{space 2} 1.356891{col 67}{space 1}   -2.35{col 76}{space 3}0.019{col 84}{space 4}-5.842513{col 97}{space 3}-.5235965
{txt}{space 38}MAR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0148734{col 56}{space 2} .9225875{col 67}{space 1}   -0.02{col 76}{space 3}0.987{col 84}{space 4}-1.823112{col 97}{space 3} 1.793365
{txt}{space 38}MDA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}MEX  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}MKD  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.097604{col 56}{space 2} .9836857{col 67}{space 1}   -2.13{col 76}{space 3}0.033{col 84}{space 4}-4.025593{col 97}{space 3}-.1696157
{txt}{space 38}MLT  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.807292{col 56}{space 2} 1.706085{col 67}{space 1}   -1.06{col 76}{space 3}0.289{col 84}{space 4}-5.151157{col 97}{space 3} 1.536573
{txt}{space 38}MOZ  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}MUS  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}MYS  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}NAM  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.772059{col 56}{space 2} .9591089{col 67}{space 1}   -1.85{col 76}{space 3}0.065{col 84}{space 4}-3.651878{col 97}{space 3} .1077598
{txt}{space 38}NGA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.214282{col 56}{space 2} .6398017{col 67}{space 1}   -1.90{col 76}{space 3}0.058{col 84}{space 4} -2.46827{col 97}{space 3} .0397063
{txt}{space 38}NIC  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.138045{col 56}{space 2} .9984687{col 67}{space 1}   -1.14{col 76}{space 3}0.254{col 84}{space 4}-3.095008{col 97}{space 3} .8189173
{txt}{space 38}NLD  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.619602{col 56}{space 2} 2.392589{col 67}{space 1}   -1.09{col 76}{space 3}0.274{col 84}{space 4} -7.30899{col 97}{space 3} 2.069786
{txt}{space 38}NOR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-5.225167{col 56}{space 2} 2.689137{col 67}{space 1}   -1.94{col 76}{space 3}0.052{col 84}{space 4}-10.49578{col 97}{space 3}  .045445
{txt}{space 38}NZL  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.639221{col 56}{space 2} 2.048001{col 67}{space 1}   -2.27{col 76}{space 3}0.023{col 84}{space 4}-8.653229{col 97}{space 3}-.6252141
{txt}{space 38}OMN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.8117262{col 56}{space 2} 1.410567{col 67}{space 1}   -0.58{col 76}{space 3}0.565{col 84}{space 4}-3.576386{col 97}{space 3} 1.952934
{txt}{space 38}PAK  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .6481267{col 56}{space 2}  1.21622{col 67}{space 1}    0.53{col 76}{space 3}0.594{col 84}{space 4}-1.735622{col 97}{space 3} 3.031875
{txt}{space 38}PAN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.425879{col 56}{space 2} 1.119388{col 67}{space 1}   -2.17{col 76}{space 3}0.030{col 84}{space 4}-4.619838{col 97}{space 3}  -.23192
{txt}{space 38}PER  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}PHL  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}PNG  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.223629{col 56}{space 2} .8984364{col 67}{space 1}   -3.59{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-4.984532{col 97}{space 3}-1.462726
{txt}{space 38}POL  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}PRT  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.129291{col 56}{space 2} 1.896102{col 67}{space 1}   -2.18{col 76}{space 3}0.029{col 84}{space 4}-7.845584{col 97}{space 3}-.4129989
{txt}{space 38}PRY  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -3.64508{col 56}{space 2} .8961033{col 67}{space 1}   -4.07{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4} -5.40141{col 97}{space 3} -1.88875
{txt}{space 38}QAT  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.714954{col 56}{space 2} 2.050236{col 67}{space 1}   -1.32{col 76}{space 3}0.185{col 84}{space 4}-6.733342{col 97}{space 3} 1.303435
{txt}{space 38}ROM  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.555374{col 56}{space 2}  1.10964{col 67}{space 1}   -2.30{col 76}{space 3}0.021{col 84}{space 4}-4.730229{col 97}{space 3}-.3805194
{txt}{space 38}RUS  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  -1.8159{col 56}{space 2}  1.15555{col 67}{space 1}   -1.57{col 76}{space 3}0.116{col 84}{space 4}-4.080737{col 97}{space 3} .4489365
{txt}{space 38}RWA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.559429{col 56}{space 2} 1.647499{col 67}{space 1}   -0.95{col 76}{space 3}0.344{col 84}{space 4}-4.788468{col 97}{space 3} 1.669611
{txt}{space 38}SAU  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3062285{col 56}{space 2} 1.402866{col 67}{space 1}    0.22{col 76}{space 3}0.827{col 84}{space 4}-2.443338{col 97}{space 3} 3.055795
{txt}{space 38}SEN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.967506{col 56}{space 2} 1.205103{col 67}{space 1}   -2.46{col 76}{space 3}0.014{col 84}{space 4}-5.329464{col 97}{space 3}-.6055479
{txt}{space 38}SGP  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.270613{col 56}{space 2} 2.178087{col 67}{space 1}   -0.58{col 76}{space 3}0.560{col 84}{space 4}-5.539585{col 97}{space 3} 2.998359
{txt}{space 38}SLB  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-4.912412{col 56}{space 2} 1.177639{col 67}{space 1}   -4.17{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-7.220542{col 97}{space 3}-2.604282
{txt}{space 38}SLV  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.232915{col 56}{space 2} .9222399{col 67}{space 1}   -1.34{col 76}{space 3}0.181{col 84}{space 4}-3.040472{col 97}{space 3} .5746419
{txt}{space 38}SUR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}SVK  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.329464{col 56}{space 2} 1.515457{col 67}{space 1}   -2.20{col 76}{space 3}0.028{col 84}{space 4}-6.299705{col 97}{space 3}-.3592221
{txt}{space 38}SVN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.833032{col 56}{space 2} 1.778525{col 67}{space 1}   -2.16{col 76}{space 3}0.031{col 84}{space 4}-7.318877{col 97}{space 3}-.3471878
{txt}{space 38}SWE  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -2.30173{col 56}{space 2} 2.146918{col 67}{space 1}   -1.07{col 76}{space 3}0.284{col 84}{space 4}-6.509612{col 97}{space 3} 1.906152
{txt}{space 38}THA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.942031{col 56}{space 2} 1.140053{col 67}{space 1}   -0.83{col 76}{space 3}0.409{col 84}{space 4}-3.176494{col 97}{space 3} 1.292432
{txt}{space 38}TTO  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.136791{col 56}{space 2} 1.307665{col 67}{space 1}   -2.40{col 76}{space 3}0.016{col 84}{space 4}-5.699767{col 97}{space 3}-.5738141
{txt}{space 38}TUN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -1.60973{col 56}{space 2} .8477498{col 67}{space 1}   -1.90{col 76}{space 3}0.058{col 84}{space 4}-3.271289{col 97}{space 3} .0518291
{txt}{space 38}TUR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}UGA  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.8082137{col 56}{space 2} 1.583406{col 67}{space 1}   -0.51{col 76}{space 3}0.610{col 84}{space 4}-3.911632{col 97}{space 3} 2.295204
{txt}{space 38}UKR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}URY  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}VEN  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}VNM  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}ZAF  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.617918{col 56}{space 2} 1.142201{col 67}{space 1}   -2.29{col 76}{space 3}0.022{col 84}{space 4}-4.856592{col 97}{space 3}-.3792444
{txt}{space 38}ZAR  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 38}ZMB  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.182902{col 56}{space 2} 1.057421{col 67}{space 1}   -1.12{col 76}{space 3}0.263{col 84}{space 4}-3.255409{col 97}{space 3} .8896043
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-2.302893{col 56}{space 2} 1.494843{col 67}{space 1}   -1.54{col 76}{space 3}0.123{col 84}{space 4}-5.232731{col 97}{space 3} .6269459
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0350952{col 56}{space 2} .9275408{col 67}{space 1}   -0.04{col 76}{space 3}0.970{col 84}{space 4}-1.853042{col 97}{space 3} 1.782851
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1381898{col 56}{space 2} .8893207{col 67}{space 1}    0.16{col 76}{space 3}0.877{col 84}{space 4}-1.604847{col 97}{space 3} 1.881226
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3064396{col 56}{space 2} .7716439{col 67}{space 1}    0.40{col 76}{space 3}0.691{col 84}{space 4}-1.205955{col 97}{space 3} 1.818834
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.2667475{col 56}{space 2} .7360036{col 67}{space 1}   -0.36{col 76}{space 3}0.717{col 84}{space 4}-1.709288{col 97}{space 3} 1.175793
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.4688996{col 56}{space 2} .7478671{col 67}{space 1}   -0.63{col 76}{space 3}0.531{col 84}{space 4}-1.934692{col 97}{space 3}  .996893
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.4602065{col 56}{space 2}  .666367{col 67}{space 1}   -0.69{col 76}{space 3}0.490{col 84}{space 4}-1.766262{col 97}{space 3} .8458487
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.5474801{col 56}{space 2} .6159983{col 67}{space 1}   -0.89{col 76}{space 3}0.374{col 84}{space 4}-1.754815{col 97}{space 3} .6598544
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.5857503{col 56}{space 2} .5742735{col 67}{space 1}   -1.02{col 76}{space 3}0.308{col 84}{space 4}-1.711306{col 97}{space 3} .5398051
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1113284{col 56}{space 2} .5183561{col 67}{space 1}   -0.21{col 76}{space 3}0.830{col 84}{space 4}-1.127288{col 97}{space 3} .9046309
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.2568592{col 56}{space 2} .4503159{col 67}{space 1}   -0.57{col 76}{space 3}0.568{col 84}{space 4}-1.139462{col 97}{space 3} .6257438
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.4276187{col 56}{space 2}  .440066{col 67}{space 1}   -0.97{col 76}{space 3}0.331{col 84}{space 4}-1.290132{col 97}{space 3} .4348947
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0948907{col 56}{space 2}   .43772{col 67}{space 1}   -0.22{col 76}{space 3}0.828{col 84}{space 4}-.9528061{col 97}{space 3} .7630247
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.247646{col 56}{space 2} .4377912{col 67}{space 1}   -0.57{col 76}{space 3}0.572{col 84}{space 4}-1.105701{col 97}{space 3}  .610409
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.3084009{col 56}{space 2} .4238207{col 67}{space 1}   -0.73{col 76}{space 3}0.467{col 84}{space 4}-1.139074{col 97}{space 3} .5222723
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.4243893{col 56}{space 2} .4097223{col 67}{space 1}   -1.04{col 76}{space 3}0.300{col 84}{space 4} -1.22743{col 97}{space 3} .3786517
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.5391316{col 56}{space 2} .3627925{col 67}{space 1}   -1.49{col 76}{space 3}0.137{col 84}{space 4}-1.250192{col 97}{space 3} .1719287
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.5721397{col 56}{space 2} .3458072{col 67}{space 1}   -1.65{col 76}{space 3}0.098{col 84}{space 4}-1.249909{col 97}{space 3}   .10563
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.5170444{col 56}{space 2} .3592732{col 67}{space 1}   -1.44{col 76}{space 3}0.150{col 84}{space 4}-1.221207{col 97}{space 3} .1871181
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2019899{col 56}{space 2}  .370598{col 67}{space 1}    0.55{col 76}{space 3}0.586{col 84}{space 4}-.5243689{col 97}{space 3} .9283487
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1254524{col 56}{space 2} .3564315{col 67}{space 1}    0.35{col 76}{space 3}0.725{col 84}{space 4}-.5731404{col 97}{space 3} .8240453
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0802036{col 56}{space 2} .3496477{col 67}{space 1}    0.23{col 76}{space 3}0.819{col 84}{space 4}-.6050933{col 97}{space 3} .7655004
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5029511{col 56}{space 2}  .349834{col 67}{space 1}    1.44{col 76}{space 3}0.151{col 84}{space 4}-.1827109{col 97}{space 3} 1.188613
{txt}{space 37}2013  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2766813{col 56}{space 2} .3094313{col 67}{space 1}    0.89{col 76}{space 3}0.371{col 84}{space 4}-.3297929{col 97}{space 3} .8831554
{txt}{space 37}2014  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5262173{col 56}{space 2} .3169364{col 67}{space 1}    1.66{col 76}{space 3}0.097{col 84}{space 4}-.0949667{col 97}{space 3} 1.147401
{txt}{space 37}2015  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.328959{col 56}{space 2} 6.206505{col 67}{space 1}   -0.21{col 76}{space 3}0.830{col 84}{space 4}-13.49349{col 97}{space 3} 10.83557
{txt}{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,577}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(issuanceOutcome), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .4241601{col 32}{space 2} .2162647{col 43}{space 1}    1.96{col 52}{space 3}0.050{col 60}{space 4}  .000289{col 73}{space 3} .8480311
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .4004897{col 32}{space 2} .2304842{col 43}{space 1}    1.74{col 52}{space 3}0.082{col 60}{space 4}-.0512511{col 73}{space 3} .8522305
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .3568262{col 32}{space 2} .2296429{col 43}{space 1}    1.55{col 52}{space 3}0.120{col 60}{space 4}-.0932655{col 73}{space 3}  .806918
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2943971{col 32}{space 2} .2143864{col 43}{space 1}    1.37{col 52}{space 3}0.170{col 60}{space 4}-.1257925{col 73}{space 3} .7145868
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2171032{col 32}{space 2} .1866152{col 43}{space 1}    1.16{col 52}{space 3}0.245{col 60}{space 4}-.1486559{col 73}{space 3} .5828623
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1315342{col 32}{space 2} .1499862{col 43}{space 1}    0.88{col 52}{space 3}0.381{col 60}{space 4}-.1624334{col 73}{space 3} .4255017
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0459997{col 32}{space 2} .1103157{col 43}{space 1}    0.42{col 52}{space 3}0.677{col 60}{space 4}-.1702151{col 73}{space 3} .2622145
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0312455{col 32}{space 2} .0760865{col 43}{space 1}   -0.41{col 52}{space 3}0.681{col 60}{space 4}-.1803723{col 73}{space 3} .1178814
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0939228{col 32}{space 2} .0602872{col 43}{space 1}   -1.56{col 52}{space 3}0.119{col 60}{space 4}-.2120836{col 73}{space 3} .0242379
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1391153{col 32}{space 2} .0703298{col 43}{space 1}   -1.98{col 52}{space 3}0.048{col 60}{space 4}-.2769591{col 73}{space 3}-.0012715
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1676758{col 32}{space 2} .0934202{col 43}{space 1}   -1.79{col 52}{space 3}0.073{col 60}{space 4}-.3507761{col 73}{space 3} .0154245
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on bond issuance) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *Not in paper: All control variables*
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region treasury10yr  lvaw_garriga_2012 inflation_annual leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2011.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2012.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,940
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       120

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1399{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         2
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0062{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      16.2
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0099{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        22

{txt}{col 49}F({res}36{txt},{res}119{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     4.81
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8916{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:120} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       issuanceOutcome{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1654688{col 52}{space 2} .0756908{col 63}{space 1}   -2.19{col 72}{space 3}0.031{col 80}{space 4}-.3153442{col 93}{space 3}-.0155935
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0932508{col 52}{space 2} .0609266{col 63}{space 1}   -1.53{col 72}{space 3}0.129{col 80}{space 4}-.2138914{col 93}{space 3} .0273899
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2493708{col 52}{space 2} .1056156{col 63}{space 1}    2.36{col 72}{space 3}0.020{col 80}{space 4} .0402414{col 93}{space 3} .4585003
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0008609{col 52}{space 2} .0006263{col 63}{space 1}   -1.37{col 72}{space 3}0.172{col 80}{space 4} -.002101{col 93}{space 3} .0003792
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0056814{col 52}{space 2} .0021865{col 63}{space 1}    2.60{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4} .0013518{col 93}{space 3} .0100109
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0030243{col 52}{space 2} .0030133{col 63}{space 1}   -1.00{col 72}{space 3}0.318{col 80}{space 4}-.0089909{col 93}{space 3} .0029423
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4126633{col 52}{space 2} .1114723{col 63}{space 1}    3.70{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4}  .191937{col 93}{space 3} .6333897
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0012931{col 52}{space 2} .0027208{col 63}{space 1}   -0.48{col 72}{space 3}0.635{col 80}{space 4}-.0066807{col 93}{space 3} .0040944
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4392552{col 52}{space 2} .1724074{col 63}{space 1}    2.55{col 72}{space 3}0.012{col 80}{space 4} .0978712{col 93}{space 3} .7806391
{txt}{space 26}treasury10yr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0209655{col 52}{space 2} .0232852{col 63}{space 1}   -0.90{col 72}{space 3}0.370{col 80}{space 4}-.0670725{col 93}{space 3} .0251415
{txt}{space 21}lvaw_garriga_2012 {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1726896{col 52}{space 2} .1340963{col 63}{space 1}   -1.29{col 72}{space 3}0.200{col 80}{space 4}-.4382137{col 93}{space 3} .0928345
{txt}{space 22}inflation_annual {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0001987{col 52}{space 2} .0003947{col 63}{space 1}   -0.50{col 72}{space 3}0.616{col 80}{space 4}-.0009802{col 93}{space 3} .0005829
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0067589{col 52}{space 2} .0101143{col 63}{space 1}    0.67{col 72}{space 3}0.505{col 80}{space 4}-.0132684{col 93}{space 3} .0267861
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-6.73e-06{col 52}{space 2} 8.18e-06{col 63}{space 1}   -0.82{col 72}{space 3}0.412{col 80}{space 4}-.0000229{col 93}{space 3} 9.46e-06
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.2566317{col 52}{space 2} .0767079{col 63}{space 1}   -3.35{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} -.408521{col 93}{space 3}-.1047424
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0515801{col 52}{space 2} .0342595{col 63}{space 1}   -1.51{col 72}{space 3}0.135{col 80}{space 4}-.1194174{col 93}{space 3} .0162571
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2639123{col 52}{space 2} .1563686{col 63}{space 1}    1.69{col 72}{space 3}0.094{col 80}{space 4}-.0457131{col 93}{space 3} .5735377
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2855899{col 52}{space 2} .1450127{col 63}{space 1}    1.97{col 72}{space 3}0.051{col 80}{space 4}-.0015497{col 93}{space 3} .5727295
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3181711{col 52}{space 2} .1241873{col 63}{space 1}    2.56{col 72}{space 3}0.012{col 80}{space 4} .0722679{col 93}{space 3} .5640743
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3286453{col 52}{space 2} .1338171{col 63}{space 1}    2.46{col 72}{space 3}0.015{col 80}{space 4} .0636741{col 93}{space 3} .5936165
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3168434{col 52}{space 2}  .122035{col 63}{space 1}    2.60{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4}  .075202{col 93}{space 3} .5584848
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3129713{col 52}{space 2} .1137743{col 63}{space 1}    2.75{col 72}{space 3}0.007{col 80}{space 4} .0876869{col 93}{space 3} .5382557
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2893984{col 52}{space 2} .1066089{col 63}{space 1}    2.71{col 72}{space 3}0.008{col 80}{space 4} .0783021{col 93}{space 3} .5004946
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2189514{col 52}{space 2} .0873653{col 63}{space 1}    2.51{col 72}{space 3}0.014{col 80}{space 4} .0459593{col 93}{space 3} .3919435
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2337022{col 52}{space 2}  .088665{col 63}{space 1}    2.64{col 72}{space 3}0.010{col 80}{space 4} .0581367{col 93}{space 3} .4092677
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1773767{col 52}{space 2} .0921267{col 63}{space 1}    1.93{col 72}{space 3}0.057{col 80}{space 4}-.0050434{col 93}{space 3} .3597969
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1721068{col 52}{space 2} .0748983{col 63}{space 1}    2.30{col 72}{space 3}0.023{col 80}{space 4} .0238007{col 93}{space 3} .3204128
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1522776{col 52}{space 2} .0681233{col 63}{space 1}    2.24{col 72}{space 3}0.027{col 80}{space 4} .0173867{col 93}{space 3} .2871686
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1198371{col 52}{space 2} .0563943{col 63}{space 1}    2.12{col 72}{space 3}0.036{col 80}{space 4} .0081708{col 93}{space 3} .2315035
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0938524{col 52}{space 2} .0553033{col 63}{space 1}    1.70{col 72}{space 3}0.092{col 80}{space 4}-.0156537{col 93}{space 3} .2033585
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0618441{col 52}{space 2} .0523976{col 63}{space 1}    1.18{col 72}{space 3}0.240{col 80}{space 4}-.0419083{col 93}{space 3} .1655965
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0457874{col 52}{space 2} .0604785{col 63}{space 1}    0.76{col 72}{space 3}0.450{col 80}{space 4}-.0739661{col 93}{space 3} .1655408
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .006095{col 52}{space 2} .0567943{col 63}{space 1}    0.11{col 72}{space 3}0.915{col 80}{space 4}-.1063634{col 93}{space 3} .1185535
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.009514{col 52}{space 2} .0391288{col 63}{space 1}   -0.24{col 72}{space 3}0.808{col 80}{space 4}-.0869928{col 93}{space 3} .0679648
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0288377{col 52}{space 2} .0342637{col 63}{space 1}    0.84{col 72}{space 3}0.402{col 80}{space 4}-.0390078{col 93}{space 3} .0966833
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0258192{col 52}{space 2} .0237106{col 63}{space 1}    1.09{col 72}{space 3}0.278{col 80}{space 4}-.0211301{col 93}{space 3} .0727685
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-3.223286{col 52}{space 2} .9977282{col 63}{space 1}   -3.23{col 72}{space 3}0.002{col 80}{space 4}-5.198888{col 93}{space 3}-1.247685
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .67618482
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25523502
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .87528991{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. 
. 
. *Appendix D: Fiscal Rules Strenght Indexes: Autocracy*
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrulesindex gov_grossdebt wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr curr_act_gdp issue_region  leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram  i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,368
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1754{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0008{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.6
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0079{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.13
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8405{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 110:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 45}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 46}{c |}{col 58}    Robust
{col 1}                             issuanceOutcome{col 46}{c |} Coefficient{col 58}  std. err.{col 70}      t{col 78}   P>|t|{col 86}     [95% con{col 99}f. interval]
{hline 45}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 29}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-.1621634{col 58}{space 2}  .062553{col 69}{space 1}   -2.59{col 78}{space 3}0.011{col 86}{space 4}-.2860139{col 99}{space 3}-.0383129
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrulesindex {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-.1105437{col 58}{space 2} .0352343{col 69}{space 1}   -3.14{col 78}{space 3}0.002{col 86}{space 4}-.1803053{col 99}{space 3}-.0407822
{txt}{space 44} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrulesindex {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .1907019{col 58}{space 2} .0993304{col 69}{space 1}    1.92{col 78}{space 3}0.057{col 86}{space 4}-.0059654{col 99}{space 3} .3873691
{txt}{space 44} {c |}
{space 31}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-.0008142{col 58}{space 2} .0005765{col 69}{space 1}   -1.41{col 78}{space 3}0.160{col 86}{space 4}-.0019556{col 99}{space 3} .0003272
{txt}{space 33}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-.0018911{col 58}{space 2} .0028565{col 69}{space 1}   -0.66{col 78}{space 3}0.509{col 86}{space 4}-.0075468{col 99}{space 3} .0037647
{txt}{space 38}loggdp {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .3182302{col 58}{space 2} .1032941{col 69}{space 1}    3.08{col 78}{space 3}0.003{col 86}{space 4}  .113715{col 99}{space 3} .5227455
{txt}{space 32}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0006174{col 58}{space 2} .0024819{col 69}{space 1}    0.25{col 78}{space 3}0.804{col 86}{space 4}-.0042966{col 99}{space 3} .0055314
{txt}{space 32}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0036842{col 58}{space 2} .0019087{col 69}{space 1}    1.93{col 78}{space 3}0.056{col 86}{space 4}-.0000949{col 99}{space 3} .0074633
{txt}{space 32}issue_region {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .5466793{col 58}{space 2}  .155547{col 69}{space 1}    3.51{col 78}{space 3}0.001{col 86}{space 4} .2387071{col 99}{space 3} .8546515
{txt}{space 25}leader_election_new {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-.0000311{col 58}{space 2} .0087889{col 69}{space 1}   -0.00{col 78}{space 3}0.997{col 86}{space 4}-.0174325{col 99}{space 3} .0173703
{txt}{space 33}exportsToUS {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-5.73e-06{col 58}{space 2} 6.04e-06{col 69}{space 1}   -0.95{col 78}{space 3}0.344{col 86}{space 4}-.0000177{col 99}{space 3} 6.22e-06
{txt}{space 30}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-.2129269{col 58}{space 2}   .07324{col 69}{space 1}   -2.91{col 78}{space 3}0.004{col 86}{space 4} -.357937{col 99}{space 3}-.0679168
{txt}{space 34}imfprogram {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-.0555621{col 58}{space 2} .0315045{col 69}{space 1}   -1.76{col 78}{space 3}0.080{col 86}{space 4}-.1179389{col 99}{space 3} .0068147
{txt}{space 44} {c |}
{space 40}year {c |}
{space 42}1  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}        0{col 58}{txt}  (empty)
{space 39}1990  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .1097891{col 58}{space 2} .1288823{col 69}{space 1}    0.85{col 78}{space 3}0.396{col 86}{space 4} -.145389{col 99}{space 3} .3649671
{txt}{space 39}1991  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .1984644{col 58}{space 2} .1257619{col 69}{space 1}    1.58{col 78}{space 3}0.117{col 86}{space 4}-.0505355{col 99}{space 3} .4474642
{txt}{space 39}1992  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .2280973{col 58}{space 2} .1192902{col 69}{space 1}    1.91{col 78}{space 3}0.058{col 86}{space 4} -.008089{col 99}{space 3} .4642835
{txt}{space 39}1993  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .2561845{col 58}{space 2} .1126693{col 69}{space 1}    2.27{col 78}{space 3}0.025{col 86}{space 4} .0331072{col 99}{space 3} .4792618
{txt}{space 39}1994  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}  .228947{col 58}{space 2} .1103489{col 69}{space 1}    2.07{col 78}{space 3}0.040{col 86}{space 4} .0104639{col 99}{space 3} .4474301
{txt}{space 39}1995  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .2199121{col 58}{space 2} .1019583{col 69}{space 1}    2.16{col 78}{space 3}0.033{col 86}{space 4} .0180419{col 99}{space 3} .4217824
{txt}{space 39}1996  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .2144929{col 58}{space 2} .0952598{col 69}{space 1}    2.25{col 78}{space 3}0.026{col 86}{space 4} .0258851{col 99}{space 3} .4031006
{txt}{space 39}1997  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .2083191{col 58}{space 2} .0825916{col 69}{space 1}    2.52{col 78}{space 3}0.013{col 86}{space 4} .0447934{col 99}{space 3} .3718447
{txt}{space 39}1998  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .1636336{col 58}{space 2} .0772085{col 69}{space 1}    2.12{col 78}{space 3}0.036{col 86}{space 4} .0107661{col 99}{space 3} .3165011
{txt}{space 39}1999  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .1650085{col 58}{space 2} .0780332{col 69}{space 1}    2.11{col 78}{space 3}0.037{col 86}{space 4} .0105081{col 99}{space 3} .3195088
{txt}{space 39}2000  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .1035096{col 58}{space 2} .0698216{col 69}{space 1}    1.48{col 78}{space 3}0.141{col 86}{space 4}-.0347323{col 99}{space 3} .2417515
{txt}{space 39}2001  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .1231389{col 58}{space 2} .0645143{col 69}{space 1}    1.91{col 78}{space 3}0.059{col 86}{space 4}-.0045949{col 99}{space 3} .2508727
{txt}{space 39}2002  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .1074654{col 58}{space 2} .0617565{col 69}{space 1}    1.74{col 78}{space 3}0.084{col 86}{space 4}-.0148081{col 99}{space 3}  .229739
{txt}{space 39}2003  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0842186{col 58}{space 2} .0602549{col 69}{space 1}    1.40{col 78}{space 3}0.165{col 86}{space 4}-.0350819{col 99}{space 3}  .203519
{txt}{space 39}2004  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0494629{col 58}{space 2} .0568483{col 69}{space 1}    0.87{col 78}{space 3}0.386{col 86}{space 4}-.0630928{col 99}{space 3} .1620185
{txt}{space 39}2005  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0246037{col 58}{space 2} .0513969{col 69}{space 1}    0.48{col 78}{space 3}0.633{col 86}{space 4}-.0771587{col 99}{space 3}  .126366
{txt}{space 39}2006  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0000317{col 58}{space 2} .0444689{col 69}{space 1}    0.00{col 78}{space 3}0.999{col 86}{space 4}-.0880136{col 99}{space 3} .0880769
{txt}{space 39}2007  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-.0336612{col 58}{space 2} .0411992{col 69}{space 1}   -0.82{col 78}{space 3}0.416{col 86}{space 4}-.1152327{col 99}{space 3} .0479102
{txt}{space 39}2008  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-.0243371{col 58}{space 2} .0430986{col 69}{space 1}   -0.56{col 78}{space 3}0.573{col 86}{space 4}-.1096693{col 99}{space 3} .0609951
{txt}{space 39}2009  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0343234{col 58}{space 2} .0392954{col 69}{space 1}    0.87{col 78}{space 3}0.384{col 86}{space 4}-.0434788{col 99}{space 3} .1121257
{txt}{space 39}2010  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0243622{col 58}{space 2} .0340103{col 69}{space 1}    0.72{col 78}{space 3}0.475{col 86}{space 4}-.0429758{col 99}{space 3} .0917002
{txt}{space 39}2011  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0055926{col 58}{space 2} .0309187{col 69}{space 1}    0.18{col 78}{space 3}0.857{col 86}{space 4}-.0556242{col 99}{space 3} .0668094
{txt}{space 39}2012  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0299093{col 58}{space 2} .0256261{col 69}{space 1}    1.17{col 78}{space 3}0.245{col 86}{space 4}-.0208286{col 99}{space 3} .0806473
{txt}{space 39}2013  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0226399{col 58}{space 2}  .023571{col 69}{space 1}    0.96{col 78}{space 3}0.339{col 86}{space 4} -.024029{col 99}{space 3} .0693088
{txt}{space 39}2014  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2} .0250383{col 58}{space 2} .0171383{col 69}{space 1}    1.46{col 78}{space 3}0.147{col 86}{space 4}-.0088943{col 99}{space 3}  .058971
{txt}{space 39}2015  {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}        0{col 58}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 44} {c |}
{space 39}_cons {c |}{col 46}{res}{space 2}-2.617213{col 58}{space 2} .9417391{col 69}{space 1}   -2.78{col 78}{space 3}0.006{col 86}{space 4}-4.481791{col 99}{space 3}-.7526356
{txt}{hline 45}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                     sigma_u {c |} {res} .55994557
                                     {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25744209
                                         {txt}rho {c |} {res} .82550361{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 45}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(laggedautocracy) at(nationalfiscalrulesindex= (0 (0.5)5))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,368}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:laggedautocracy}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:.5}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:1}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:1.5}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:2}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:2.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:3}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:3.5}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:4}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:4.5}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~x} = {res:{ralign 3:5}}

{res}{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29} Delta-method
{col 17}{c |}      dy/dx{col 29}   std. err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% con{col 70}f. interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}laggedautocracy {txt}{c |}
{space 12}_at {c |}
{space 13}1  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1621634{col 29}{space 2}  .062553{col 40}{space 1}   -2.59{col 49}{space 3}0.010{col 57}{space 4} -.284765{col 70}{space 3}-.0395619
{txt}{space 13}2  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0668125{col 29}{space 2} .0607911{col 40}{space 1}   -1.10{col 49}{space 3}0.272{col 57}{space 4}-.1859608{col 70}{space 3} .0523358
{txt}{space 13}3  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0285384{col 29}{space 2} .0917142{col 40}{space 1}    0.31{col 49}{space 3}0.756{col 57}{space 4}-.1512182{col 70}{space 3}  .208295
{txt}{space 13}4  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .1238894{col 29}{space 2} .1343901{col 40}{space 1}    0.92{col 49}{space 3}0.357{col 57}{space 4}-.1395105{col 70}{space 3} .3872892
{txt}{space 13}5  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .2192403{col 29}{space 2} .1806742{col 40}{space 1}    1.21{col 49}{space 3}0.225{col 57}{space 4}-.1348747{col 70}{space 3} .5733553
{txt}{space 13}6  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3145912{col 29}{space 2} .2283833{col 40}{space 1}    1.38{col 49}{space 3}0.168{col 57}{space 4}-.1330318{col 70}{space 3} .7622142
{txt}{space 13}7  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .4099421{col 29}{space 2} .2767814{col 40}{space 1}    1.48{col 49}{space 3}0.139{col 57}{space 4}-.1325393{col 70}{space 3} .9524236
{txt}{space 13}8  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5052931{col 29}{space 2} .3255613{col 40}{space 1}    1.55{col 49}{space 3}0.121{col 57}{space 4}-.1327954{col 70}{space 3} 1.143382
{txt}{space 13}9  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .600644{col 29}{space 2}  .374574{col 40}{space 1}    1.60{col 49}{space 3}0.109{col 57}{space 4}-.1335076{col 70}{space 3} 1.334796
{txt}{space 12}10  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .6959949{col 29}{space 2} .4237387{col 40}{space 1}    1.64{col 49}{space 3}0.100{col 57}{space 4}-.1345177{col 70}{space 3} 1.526508
{txt}{space 12}11  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7913459{col 29}{space 2}  .473008{col 40}{space 1}    1.67{col 49}{space 3}0.094{col 57}{space 4}-.1357327{col 70}{space 3} 1.718424
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of autocracy on bond issuance) xtitle(Fiscal rules strength index) addplot(hist nationalfiscalrulesindex if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  laggeddemocracy!=. & nationalfiscalrulesindex!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:nationalfiscalrulesindex}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrulesindex2 gov_grossdebt wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr curr_act_gdp issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram  i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,368
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1743{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0007{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.6
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0075{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.17
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8415{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 111:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 46}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 47}{c |}{col 59}    Robust
{col 1}                              issuanceOutcome{col 47}{c |} Coefficient{col 59}  std. err.{col 71}      t{col 79}   P>|t|{col 87}     [95% con{col 100}f. interval]
{hline 46}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 30}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} -.149394{col 59}{space 2} .0625357{col 70}{space 1}   -2.39{col 79}{space 3}0.018{col 87}{space 4}-.2732102{col 100}{space 3}-.0255777
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrulesindex2 {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} -.120161{col 59}{space 2} .0358219{col 70}{space 1}   -3.35{col 79}{space 3}0.001{col 87}{space 4}-.1910858{col 100}{space 3}-.0492362
{txt}{space 45} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrulesindex2 {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1978996{col 59}{space 2} .1383366{col 70}{space 1}    1.43{col 79}{space 3}0.155{col 87}{space 4}-.0759971{col 100}{space 3} .4717964
{txt}{space 45} {c |}
{space 32}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0008067{col 59}{space 2} .0005738{col 70}{space 1}   -1.41{col 79}{space 3}0.162{col 87}{space 4}-.0019427{col 100}{space 3} .0003293
{txt}{space 34}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0022087{col 59}{space 2} .0030291{col 70}{space 1}   -0.73{col 79}{space 3}0.467{col 87}{space 4}-.0082061{col 100}{space 3} .0037886
{txt}{space 39}loggdp {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .3193909{col 59}{space 2} .1038912{col 70}{space 1}    3.07{col 79}{space 3}0.003{col 87}{space 4} .1136936{col 100}{space 3} .5250883
{txt}{space 33}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0005333{col 59}{space 2} .0024928{col 70}{space 1}    0.21{col 79}{space 3}0.831{col 87}{space 4}-.0044021{col 100}{space 3} .0054688
{txt}{space 33}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0037619{col 59}{space 2} .0019231{col 70}{space 1}    1.96{col 79}{space 3}0.053{col 87}{space 4}-.0000457{col 100}{space 3} .0075695
{txt}{space 33}issue_region {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .5538337{col 59}{space 2} .1543402{col 70}{space 1}    3.59{col 79}{space 3}0.000{col 87}{space 4} .2482509{col 100}{space 3} .8594165
{txt}{space 26}leader_election_new {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0004058{col 59}{space 2} .0088312{col 70}{space 1}    0.05{col 79}{space 3}0.963{col 87}{space 4}-.0170794{col 100}{space 3}  .017891
{txt}{space 34}exportsToUS {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-6.53e-06{col 59}{space 2} 6.63e-06{col 70}{space 1}   -0.98{col 79}{space 3}0.327{col 87}{space 4}-.0000197{col 100}{space 3} 6.61e-06
{txt}{space 31}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.2101436{col 59}{space 2} .0725119{col 70}{space 1}   -2.90{col 79}{space 3}0.004{col 87}{space 4}-.3537122{col 100}{space 3} -.066575
{txt}{space 35}imfprogram {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0566237{col 59}{space 2} .0316492{col 70}{space 1}   -1.79{col 79}{space 3}0.076{col 87}{space 4}-.1192869{col 100}{space 3} .0060395
{txt}{space 45} {c |}
{space 41}year {c |}
{space 43}1  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}        0{col 59}{txt}  (empty)
{space 40}1990  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1189633{col 59}{space 2} .1303143{col 70}{space 1}    0.91{col 79}{space 3}0.363{col 87}{space 4}  -.13905{col 100}{space 3} .3769767
{txt}{space 40}1991  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2048092{col 59}{space 2} .1270895{col 70}{space 1}    1.61{col 79}{space 3}0.110{col 87}{space 4}-.0468191{col 100}{space 3} .4564375
{txt}{space 40}1992  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2302808{col 59}{space 2}  .120309{col 70}{space 1}    1.91{col 79}{space 3}0.058{col 87}{space 4}-.0079227{col 100}{space 3} .4684843
{txt}{space 40}1993  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2581224{col 59}{space 2} .1131831{col 70}{space 1}    2.28{col 79}{space 3}0.024{col 87}{space 4} .0340277{col 100}{space 3} .4822171
{txt}{space 40}1994  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2314624{col 59}{space 2} .1107084{col 70}{space 1}    2.09{col 79}{space 3}0.039{col 87}{space 4} .0122675{col 100}{space 3} .4506573
{txt}{space 40}1995  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2200031{col 59}{space 2}  .102129{col 70}{space 1}    2.15{col 79}{space 3}0.033{col 87}{space 4} .0177948{col 100}{space 3} .4222114
{txt}{space 40}1996  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2149774{col 59}{space 2} .0954431{col 70}{space 1}    2.25{col 79}{space 3}0.026{col 87}{space 4} .0260066{col 100}{space 3} .4039481
{txt}{space 40}1997  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2066247{col 59}{space 2} .0823192{col 70}{space 1}    2.51{col 79}{space 3}0.013{col 87}{space 4} .0436383{col 100}{space 3}  .369611
{txt}{space 40}1998  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1599009{col 59}{space 2} .0772376{col 70}{space 1}    2.07{col 79}{space 3}0.041{col 87}{space 4} .0069758{col 100}{space 3}  .312826
{txt}{space 40}1999  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1618492{col 59}{space 2} .0779911{col 70}{space 1}    2.08{col 79}{space 3}0.040{col 87}{space 4} .0074321{col 100}{space 3} .3162662
{txt}{space 40}2000  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1014741{col 59}{space 2}  .070101{col 70}{space 1}    1.45{col 79}{space 3}0.150{col 87}{space 4} -.037321{col 100}{space 3} .2402691
{txt}{space 40}2001  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1213286{col 59}{space 2} .0643013{col 70}{space 1}    1.89{col 79}{space 3}0.062{col 87}{space 4}-.0059835{col 100}{space 3} .2486408
{txt}{space 40}2002  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1042924{col 59}{space 2} .0616432{col 70}{space 1}    1.69{col 79}{space 3}0.093{col 87}{space 4} -.017757{col 100}{space 3} .2263417
{txt}{space 40}2003  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0815473{col 59}{space 2} .0602436{col 70}{space 1}    1.35{col 79}{space 3}0.178{col 87}{space 4}-.0377308{col 100}{space 3} .2008254
{txt}{space 40}2004  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0463306{col 59}{space 2}  .056886{col 70}{space 1}    0.81{col 79}{space 3}0.417{col 87}{space 4}-.0662999{col 100}{space 3}  .158961
{txt}{space 40}2005  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0219187{col 59}{space 2} .0522116{col 70}{space 1}    0.42{col 79}{space 3}0.675{col 87}{space 4}-.0814566{col 100}{space 3} .1252939
{txt}{space 40}2006  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0036596{col 59}{space 2} .0458962{col 70}{space 1}   -0.08{col 79}{space 3}0.937{col 87}{space 4}-.0945308{col 100}{space 3} .0872116
{txt}{space 40}2007  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0370558{col 59}{space 2} .0419735{col 70}{space 1}   -0.88{col 79}{space 3}0.379{col 87}{space 4}-.1201605{col 100}{space 3} .0460489
{txt}{space 40}2008  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0279324{col 59}{space 2} .0435772{col 70}{space 1}   -0.64{col 79}{space 3}0.523{col 87}{space 4}-.1142122{col 100}{space 3} .0583474
{txt}{space 40}2009  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0289265{col 59}{space 2} .0402573{col 70}{space 1}    0.72{col 79}{space 3}0.474{col 87}{space 4}-.0507802{col 100}{space 3} .1086332
{txt}{space 40}2010  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0198121{col 59}{space 2} .0343463{col 70}{space 1}    0.58{col 79}{space 3}0.565{col 87}{space 4}-.0481913{col 100}{space 3} .0878154
{txt}{space 40}2011  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0010767{col 59}{space 2}   .03159{col 70}{space 1}    0.03{col 79}{space 3}0.973{col 87}{space 4}-.0614693{col 100}{space 3} .0636227
{txt}{space 40}2012  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0270792{col 59}{space 2} .0259295{col 70}{space 1}    1.04{col 79}{space 3}0.298{col 87}{space 4}-.0242595{col 100}{space 3} .0784179
{txt}{space 40}2013  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0215626{col 59}{space 2} .0239579{col 70}{space 1}    0.90{col 79}{space 3}0.370{col 87}{space 4}-.0258724{col 100}{space 3} .0689977
{txt}{space 40}2014  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0267608{col 59}{space 2} .0172119{col 70}{space 1}    1.55{col 79}{space 3}0.123{col 87}{space 4}-.0073175{col 100}{space 3}  .060839
{txt}{space 40}2015  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}        0{col 59}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 45} {c |}
{space 40}_cons {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-2.632825{col 59}{space 2}  .945383{col 70}{space 1}   -2.78{col 79}{space 3}0.006{col 87}{space 4}-4.504617{col 100}{space 3}-.7610325
{txt}{hline 46}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                      sigma_u {c |} {res} .56109448
                                      {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25760747
                                          {txt}rho {c |} {res} .82590874{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 46}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(laggedautocracy) at(nationalfiscalrulesindex2= (0 (0.5)5))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,368}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:laggedautocracy}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:.5}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:1}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:1.5}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:2}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:2.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:3}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:3.5}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:4}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:4.5}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~2} = {res:{ralign 3:5}}

{res}{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29} Delta-method
{col 17}{c |}      dy/dx{col 29}   std. err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% con{col 70}f. interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}laggedautocracy {txt}{c |}
{space 12}_at {c |}
{space 13}1  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} -.149394{col 29}{space 2} .0625357{col 40}{space 1}   -2.39{col 49}{space 3}0.017{col 57}{space 4}-.2719616{col 70}{space 3}-.0268263
{txt}{space 13}2  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.0504441{col 29}{space 2} .0739581{col 40}{space 1}   -0.68{col 49}{space 3}0.495{col 57}{space 4}-.1953993{col 70}{space 3}  .094511
{txt}{space 13}3  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0485057{col 29}{space 2} .1288308{col 40}{space 1}    0.38{col 49}{space 3}0.707{col 57}{space 4}-.2039981{col 70}{space 3} .3010095
{txt}{space 13}4  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .1474555{col 29}{space 2} .1931152{col 40}{space 1}    0.76{col 49}{space 3}0.445{col 57}{space 4}-.2310433{col 70}{space 3} .5259543
{txt}{space 13}5  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .2464053{col 29}{space 2} .2599193{col 40}{space 1}    0.95{col 49}{space 3}0.343{col 57}{space 4}-.2630272{col 70}{space 3} .7558379
{txt}{space 13}6  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .3453551{col 29}{space 2} .3277059{col 40}{space 1}    1.05{col 49}{space 3}0.292{col 57}{space 4}-.2969366{col 70}{space 3} .9876469
{txt}{space 13}7  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}  .444305{col 29}{space 2} .3959707{col 40}{space 1}    1.12{col 49}{space 3}0.262{col 57}{space 4}-.3317833{col 70}{space 3} 1.220393
{txt}{space 13}8  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .5432548{col 29}{space 2} .4645028{col 40}{space 1}    1.17{col 49}{space 3}0.242{col 57}{space 4} -.367154{col 70}{space 3} 1.453664
{txt}{space 13}9  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .6422046{col 29}{space 2} .5331993{col 40}{space 1}    1.20{col 49}{space 3}0.228{col 57}{space 4}-.4028468{col 70}{space 3} 1.687256
{txt}{space 12}10  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .7411544{col 29}{space 2} .6020038{col 40}{space 1}    1.23{col 49}{space 3}0.218{col 57}{space 4}-.4387513{col 70}{space 3}  1.92106
{txt}{space 12}11  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8401042{col 29}{space 2} .6708831{col 40}{space 1}    1.25{col 49}{space 3}0.210{col 57}{space 4}-.4748025{col 70}{space 3} 2.155011
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of autocracy on bond issuance) xtitle(Fiscal rules strength index) addplot(hist nationalfiscalrulesindex2 if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  laggeddemocracy!=. & nationalfiscalrulesindex2!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8)))yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:nationalfiscalrulesindex2}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. xtreg issuanceOutcome  c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrulesindex3 gov_grossdebt wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr curr_act_gdp issue_region  leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster(ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,368
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1730{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0008{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.6
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0072{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.33
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.8510{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 111:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 46}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 47}{c |}{col 59}    Robust
{col 1}                              issuanceOutcome{col 47}{c |} Coefficient{col 59}  std. err.{col 71}      t{col 79}   P>|t|{col 87}     [95% con{col 100}f. interval]
{hline 46}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 30}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.1720247{col 59}{space 2} .0656927{col 70}{space 1}   -2.62{col 79}{space 3}0.010{col 87}{space 4}-.3020917{col 100}{space 3}-.0419577
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrulesindex3 {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.1753773{col 59}{space 2} .0572608{col 70}{space 1}   -3.06{col 79}{space 3}0.003{col 87}{space 4}-.2887498{col 100}{space 3}-.0620049
{txt}{space 45} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrulesindex3 {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .4196026{col 59}{space 2} .1865275{col 70}{space 1}    2.25{col 79}{space 3}0.026{col 87}{space 4} .0502912{col 100}{space 3}  .788914
{txt}{space 45} {c |}
{space 32}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0009164{col 59}{space 2} .0005693{col 70}{space 1}   -1.61{col 79}{space 3}0.110{col 87}{space 4}-.0020435{col 100}{space 3} .0002107
{txt}{space 34}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0019001{col 59}{space 2} .0029503{col 70}{space 1}   -0.64{col 79}{space 3}0.521{col 87}{space 4}-.0077416{col 100}{space 3} .0039413
{txt}{space 39}loggdp {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .3238189{col 59}{space 2} .1027701{col 70}{space 1}    3.15{col 79}{space 3}0.002{col 87}{space 4} .1203413{col 100}{space 3} .5272966
{txt}{space 33}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}  .000363{col 59}{space 2}  .002506{col 70}{space 1}    0.14{col 79}{space 3}0.885{col 87}{space 4}-.0045986{col 100}{space 3} .0053247
{txt}{space 33}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0036279{col 59}{space 2} .0019162{col 70}{space 1}    1.89{col 79}{space 3}0.061{col 87}{space 4}-.0001661{col 100}{space 3} .0074219
{txt}{space 33}issue_region {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .5480593{col 59}{space 2} .1532023{col 70}{space 1}    3.58{col 79}{space 3}0.001{col 87}{space 4} .2447294{col 100}{space 3} .8513892
{txt}{space 26}leader_election_new {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0002945{col 59}{space 2} .0088424{col 70}{space 1}    0.03{col 79}{space 3}0.973{col 87}{space 4}-.0172128{col 100}{space 3} .0178018
{txt}{space 34}exportsToUS {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-6.45e-06{col 59}{space 2} 6.59e-06{col 70}{space 1}   -0.98{col 79}{space 3}0.330{col 87}{space 4}-.0000195{col 100}{space 3} 6.61e-06
{txt}{space 31}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} -.220796{col 59}{space 2} .0732003{col 70}{space 1}   -3.02{col 79}{space 3}0.003{col 87}{space 4}-.3657276{col 100}{space 3}-.0758644
{txt}{space 35}imfprogram {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0629314{col 59}{space 2} .0319642{col 70}{space 1}   -1.97{col 79}{space 3}0.051{col 87}{space 4}-.1262184{col 100}{space 3} .0003555
{txt}{space 45} {c |}
{space 41}year {c |}
{space 43}1  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}        0{col 59}{txt}  (empty)
{space 40}1990  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1398215{col 59}{space 2}  .127792{col 70}{space 1}    1.09{col 79}{space 3}0.276{col 87}{space 4}-.1131979{col 100}{space 3} .3928408
{txt}{space 40}1991  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}  .224734{col 59}{space 2} .1225308{col 70}{space 1}    1.83{col 79}{space 3}0.069{col 87}{space 4}-.0178683{col 100}{space 3} .4673364
{txt}{space 40}1992  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2487328{col 59}{space 2} .1198515{col 70}{space 1}    2.08{col 79}{space 3}0.040{col 87}{space 4} .0114353{col 100}{space 3} .4860304
{txt}{space 40}1993  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2771026{col 59}{space 2} .1129712{col 70}{space 1}    2.45{col 79}{space 3}0.016{col 87}{space 4} .0534276{col 100}{space 3} .5007776
{txt}{space 40}1994  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2494332{col 59}{space 2} .1109163{col 70}{space 1}    2.25{col 79}{space 3}0.026{col 87}{space 4} .0298266{col 100}{space 3} .4690398
{txt}{space 40}1995  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2380381{col 59}{space 2} .1018438{col 70}{space 1}    2.34{col 79}{space 3}0.021{col 87}{space 4} .0363944{col 100}{space 3} .4396818
{txt}{space 40}1996  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}  .233061{col 59}{space 2} .0951732{col 70}{space 1}    2.45{col 79}{space 3}0.016{col 87}{space 4} .0446247{col 100}{space 3} .4214973
{txt}{space 40}1997  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .2251802{col 59}{space 2} .0825573{col 70}{space 1}    2.73{col 79}{space 3}0.007{col 87}{space 4} .0617226{col 100}{space 3} .3886379
{txt}{space 40}1998  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1774636{col 59}{space 2}   .07725{col 70}{space 1}    2.30{col 79}{space 3}0.023{col 87}{space 4}  .024514{col 100}{space 3} .3304132
{txt}{space 40}1999  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1801647{col 59}{space 2} .0778758{col 70}{space 1}    2.31{col 79}{space 3}0.022{col 87}{space 4} .0259759{col 100}{space 3} .3343534
{txt}{space 40}2000  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1174804{col 59}{space 2}  .069819{col 70}{space 1}    1.68{col 79}{space 3}0.095{col 87}{space 4}-.0207564{col 100}{space 3} .2557172
{txt}{space 40}2001  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1356875{col 59}{space 2} .0633914{col 70}{space 1}    2.14{col 79}{space 3}0.034{col 87}{space 4} .0101769{col 100}{space 3} .2611981
{txt}{space 40}2002  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .1204662{col 59}{space 2} .0609096{col 70}{space 1}    1.98{col 79}{space 3}0.050{col 87}{space 4}-.0001305{col 100}{space 3} .2410629
{txt}{space 40}2003  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0972154{col 59}{space 2}  .057872{col 70}{space 1}    1.68{col 79}{space 3}0.096{col 87}{space 4}-.0173672{col 100}{space 3}  .211798
{txt}{space 40}2004  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}  .063777{col 59}{space 2} .0547485{col 70}{space 1}    1.16{col 79}{space 3}0.246{col 87}{space 4}-.0446211{col 100}{space 3} .1721752
{txt}{space 40}2005  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0383801{col 59}{space 2} .0491817{col 70}{space 1}    0.78{col 79}{space 3}0.437{col 87}{space 4}-.0589963{col 100}{space 3} .1357565
{txt}{space 40}2006  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0134326{col 59}{space 2} .0431694{col 70}{space 1}    0.31{col 79}{space 3}0.756{col 87}{space 4}-.0720397{col 100}{space 3} .0989049
{txt}{space 40}2007  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0241078{col 59}{space 2} .0396588{col 70}{space 1}   -0.61{col 79}{space 3}0.544{col 87}{space 4}-.1026294{col 100}{space 3} .0544139
{txt}{space 40}2008  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-.0150119{col 59}{space 2} .0421008{col 70}{space 1}   -0.36{col 79}{space 3}0.722{col 87}{space 4}-.0983685{col 100}{space 3} .0683446
{txt}{space 40}2009  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0430687{col 59}{space 2} .0392163{col 70}{space 1}    1.10{col 79}{space 3}0.274{col 87}{space 4}-.0345769{col 100}{space 3} .1207142
{txt}{space 40}2010  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0304266{col 59}{space 2} .0344866{col 70}{space 1}    0.88{col 79}{space 3}0.379{col 87}{space 4}-.0378546{col 100}{space 3} .0987077
{txt}{space 40}2011  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}  .012883{col 59}{space 2} .0306748{col 70}{space 1}    0.42{col 79}{space 3}0.675{col 87}{space 4} -.047851{col 100}{space 3} .0736169
{txt}{space 40}2012  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0352583{col 59}{space 2} .0266208{col 70}{space 1}    1.32{col 79}{space 3}0.188{col 87}{space 4}-.0174491{col 100}{space 3} .0879657
{txt}{space 40}2013  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0287994{col 59}{space 2} .0240901{col 70}{space 1}    1.20{col 79}{space 3}0.234{col 87}{space 4}-.0188973{col 100}{space 3} .0764962
{txt}{space 40}2014  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2} .0280675{col 59}{space 2} .0176622{col 70}{space 1}    1.59{col 79}{space 3}0.115{col 87}{space 4}-.0069025{col 100}{space 3} .0630375
{txt}{space 40}2015  {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}        0{col 59}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 45} {c |}
{space 40}_cons {c |}{col 47}{res}{space 2}-2.674317{col 59}{space 2} .9328949{col 70}{space 1}   -2.87{col 79}{space 3}0.005{col 87}{space 4}-4.521384{col 100}{space 3}-.8272496
{txt}{hline 46}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                      sigma_u {c |} {res} .57696889
                                      {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .25780636
                                          {txt}rho {c |} {res} .83357227{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 46}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(laggedautocracy) at(nationalfiscalrulesindex3= (0 (0.5)3))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,368}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:laggedautocracy}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 7:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~3} = {res:{ralign 3:0}}
{lalign 7:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~3} = {res:{ralign 3:.5}}
{lalign 7:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~3} = {res:{ralign 3:1}}
{lalign 7:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~3} = {res:{ralign 3:1.5}}
{lalign 7:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~3} = {res:{ralign 3:2}}
{lalign 7:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~3} = {res:{ralign 3:2.5}}
{lalign 7:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:nationalfiscal~3} = {res:{ralign 3:3}}

{res}{txt}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 17}{c |}{col 29} Delta-method
{col 17}{c |}      dy/dx{col 29}   std. err.{col 41}      z{col 49}   P>|z|{col 57}     [95% con{col 70}f. interval]
{hline 16}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}laggedautocracy {txt}{c |}
{space 12}_at {c |}
{space 13}1  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2}-.1720247{col 29}{space 2} .0656927{col 40}{space 1}   -2.62{col 49}{space 3}0.009{col 57}{space 4}-.3007801{col 70}{space 3}-.0432694
{txt}{space 13}2  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .0377765{col 29}{space 2} .0817184{col 40}{space 1}    0.46{col 49}{space 3}0.644{col 57}{space 4}-.1223886{col 70}{space 3} .1979417
{txt}{space 13}3  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .2475778{col 29}{space 2} .1625931{col 40}{space 1}    1.52{col 49}{space 3}0.128{col 57}{space 4}-.0710988{col 70}{space 3} .5662545
{txt}{space 13}4  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .4573791{col 29}{space 2} .2521733{col 40}{space 1}    1.81{col 49}{space 3}0.070{col 57}{space 4}-.0368715{col 70}{space 3} .9516297
{txt}{space 13}5  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .6671804{col 29}{space 2} .3437186{col 40}{space 1}    1.94{col 49}{space 3}0.052{col 57}{space 4}-.0064957{col 70}{space 3} 1.340857
{txt}{space 13}6  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} .8769817{col 29}{space 2}  .435993{col 40}{space 1}    2.01{col 49}{space 3}0.044{col 57}{space 4} .0224512{col 70}{space 3} 1.731512
{txt}{space 13}7  {c |}{col 17}{res}{space 2} 1.086783{col 29}{space 2} .5286147{col 40}{space 1}    2.06{col 49}{space 3}0.040{col 57}{space 4} .0507173{col 70}{space 3} 2.122849
{txt}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of autocracy on bond issuance) xtitle(Fiscal rules strength index) addplot(hist nationalfiscalrulesindex3 if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  laggeddemocracy!=. & nationalfiscalrulesindex3!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8)))yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:nationalfiscalrulesindex3}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *Appenix C: Amount issued 
. 
. xtreg log_totalAmt_UT c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster (ccode) 
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,345
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.1919{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0153{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.4
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0288{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}37{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     7.92
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.7808{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                       log_totalAmt_UT{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-1.413701{col 52}{space 2} 1.175952{col 63}{space 1}   -1.20{col 72}{space 3}0.232{col 80}{space 4}-3.742005{col 93}{space 3} .9146024
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-2.171539{col 52}{space 2} .9968157{col 63}{space 1}   -2.18{col 72}{space 3}0.031{col 80}{space 4}-4.145165{col 93}{space 3}-.1979132
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 2.558593{col 52}{space 2} 1.592038{col 63}{space 1}    1.61{col 72}{space 3}0.111{col 80}{space 4}-.5935304{col 93}{space 3} 5.710717
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0236991{col 52}{space 2} .0107626{col 63}{space 1}   -2.20{col 72}{space 3}0.030{col 80}{space 4}-.0450083{col 93}{space 3}-.0023898
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0945132{col 52}{space 2} .0347688{col 63}{space 1}    2.72{col 72}{space 3}0.008{col 80}{space 4} .0256734{col 93}{space 3}  .163353
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.113612{col 52}{space 2} .0491145{col 63}{space 1}   -2.31{col 72}{space 3}0.022{col 80}{space 4}-.2108552{col 93}{space 3}-.0163688
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 5.636716{col 52}{space 2} 2.274633{col 63}{space 1}    2.48{col 72}{space 3}0.015{col 80}{space 4}   1.1331{col 93}{space 3} 10.14033
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0044854{col 52}{space 2} .0454849{col 63}{space 1}    0.10{col 72}{space 3}0.922{col 80}{space 4}-.0855715{col 93}{space 3} .0945424
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 11.44307{col 52}{space 2} 3.053655{col 63}{space 1}    3.75{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4} 5.397044{col 93}{space 3} 17.48909
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0420557{col 52}{space 2} .1585536{col 63}{space 1}    0.27{col 72}{space 3}0.791{col 80}{space 4}-.2718694{col 93}{space 3} .3559808
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0000121{col 52}{space 2}  .000133{col 63}{space 1}    0.09{col 72}{space 3}0.928{col 80}{space 4}-.0002512{col 93}{space 3} .0002754
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-3.868895{col 52}{space 2} 1.467131{col 63}{space 1}   -2.64{col 72}{space 3}0.009{col 80}{space 4}-6.773712{col 93}{space 3}-.9640772
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.4375653{col 52}{space 2} .5682575{col 63}{space 1}   -0.77{col 72}{space 3}0.443{col 80}{space 4}-1.562676{col 93}{space 3}  .687545
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 3.014009{col 52}{space 2} 2.541451{col 63}{space 1}    1.19{col 72}{space 3}0.238{col 80}{space 4}-2.017888{col 93}{space 3} 8.045906
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 3.163629{col 52}{space 2} 2.364842{col 63}{space 1}    1.34{col 72}{space 3}0.183{col 80}{space 4}-1.518594{col 93}{space 3} 7.845852
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 4.192312{col 52}{space 2} 2.271848{col 63}{space 1}    1.85{col 72}{space 3}0.067{col 80}{space 4} -.305789{col 93}{space 3} 8.690412
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 3.431069{col 52}{space 2}  2.19934{col 63}{space 1}    1.56{col 72}{space 3}0.121{col 80}{space 4} -.923472{col 93}{space 3} 7.785609
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 3.933744{col 52}{space 2} 2.197599{col 63}{space 1}    1.79{col 72}{space 3}0.076{col 80}{space 4}-.4173492{col 93}{space 3} 8.284838
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 4.968348{col 52}{space 2} 2.092224{col 63}{space 1}    2.37{col 72}{space 3}0.019{col 80}{space 4} .8258913{col 93}{space 3} 9.110805
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 4.819631{col 52}{space 2} 1.856169{col 63}{space 1}    2.60{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4} 1.144546{col 93}{space 3} 8.494716
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 4.068763{col 52}{space 2} 1.747515{col 63}{space 1}    2.33{col 72}{space 3}0.022{col 80}{space 4} .6088042{col 93}{space 3} 7.528721
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 4.304785{col 52}{space 2}  1.62482{col 63}{space 1}    2.65{col 72}{space 3}0.009{col 80}{space 4} 1.087755{col 93}{space 3} 7.521815
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 4.017387{col 52}{space 2}  1.48042{col 63}{space 1}    2.71{col 72}{space 3}0.008{col 80}{space 4} 1.086259{col 93}{space 3} 6.948515
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  3.46037{col 52}{space 2} 1.316093{col 63}{space 1}    2.63{col 72}{space 3}0.010{col 80}{space 4} .8545979{col 93}{space 3} 6.066142
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 3.202777{col 52}{space 2} 1.242299{col 63}{space 1}    2.58{col 72}{space 3}0.011{col 80}{space 4} .7431122{col 93}{space 3} 5.662441
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 2.915992{col 52}{space 2}  1.16311{col 63}{space 1}    2.51{col 72}{space 3}0.014{col 80}{space 4} .6131143{col 93}{space 3}  5.21887
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 2.259526{col 52}{space 2} 1.097107{col 63}{space 1}    2.06{col 72}{space 3}0.042{col 80}{space 4}   .08733{col 93}{space 3} 4.431722
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  1.61414{col 52}{space 2} 1.019088{col 63}{space 1}    1.58{col 72}{space 3}0.116{col 80}{space 4}-.4035826{col 93}{space 3} 3.631862
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .9080479{col 52}{space 2} .8934094{col 63}{space 1}    1.02{col 72}{space 3}0.311{col 80}{space 4}-.8608405{col 93}{space 3} 2.676936
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .6698846{col 52}{space 2} .7952574{col 63}{space 1}    0.84{col 72}{space 3}0.401{col 80}{space 4}-.9046697{col 93}{space 3} 2.244439
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.142745{col 52}{space 2} .8203739{col 63}{space 1}    1.39{col 72}{space 3}0.166{col 80}{space 4}-.4815381{col 93}{space 3} 2.767028
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.817094{col 52}{space 2} .7405345{col 63}{space 1}    2.45{col 72}{space 3}0.016{col 80}{space 4} .3508874{col 93}{space 3} 3.283301
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.774704{col 52}{space 2} .6349409{col 63}{space 1}    2.80{col 72}{space 3}0.006{col 80}{space 4} .5175654{col 93}{space 3} 3.031843
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.210757{col 52}{space 2} .5507281{col 63}{space 1}    2.20{col 72}{space 3}0.030{col 80}{space 4} .1203535{col 93}{space 3}  2.30116
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.643119{col 52}{space 2} .5046402{col 63}{space 1}    3.26{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} .6439665{col 93}{space 3} 2.642271
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  1.06869{col 52}{space 2} .4586097{col 63}{space 1}    2.33{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4} .1606752{col 93}{space 3} 1.976706
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .8534684{col 52}{space 2} .3118072{col 63}{space 1}    2.74{col 72}{space 3}0.007{col 80}{space 4} .2361118{col 93}{space 3} 1.470825
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-47.04965{col 52}{space 2} 20.77091{col 63}{space 1}   -2.27{col 72}{space 3}0.025{col 80}{space 4}-88.17461{col 93}{space 3}-5.924682
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} 9.8425522
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} 4.8045503
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .80757092{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on log of amount issued)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. xtreg log_totalAmt_UT c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule  gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster (ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,306
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       118

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.2140{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.0162{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.5
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.0326{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}117{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     9.04
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.7958{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:118} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                           log_totalAmt_UT{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 7.110386{col 56}{space 2} 3.408805{col 67}{space 1}    2.09{col 76}{space 3}0.039{col 84}{space 4} .3594257{col 97}{space 3} 13.86135
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 3.622084{col 56}{space 2} 3.356134{col 67}{space 1}    1.08{col 76}{space 3}0.283{col 84}{space 4}-3.024563{col 97}{space 3} 10.26873
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-7.074552{col 56}{space 2} 4.510583{col 67}{space 1}   -1.57{col 76}{space 3}0.119{col 84}{space 4}-16.00753{col 97}{space 3} 1.858422
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0219108{col 56}{space 2} .0100567{col 67}{space 1}   -2.18{col 76}{space 3}0.031{col 84}{space 4}-.0418275{col 97}{space 3}-.0019941
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0983088{col 56}{space 2} .0354898{col 67}{space 1}    2.77{col 76}{space 3}0.007{col 84}{space 4} .0280232{col 97}{space 3} .1685945
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1044263{col 56}{space 2} .0476814{col 67}{space 1}   -2.19{col 76}{space 3}0.031{col 84}{space 4}-.1988567{col 97}{space 3}-.0099958
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 5.387673{col 56}{space 2} 2.266788{col 67}{space 1}    2.38{col 76}{space 3}0.019{col 84}{space 4} .8984188{col 97}{space 3} 9.876928
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0191728{col 56}{space 2} .0451362{col 67}{space 1}    0.42{col 76}{space 3}0.672{col 84}{space 4}-.0702171{col 97}{space 3} .1085627
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 11.38166{col 56}{space 2}  3.04985{col 67}{space 1}    3.73{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4} 5.341587{col 97}{space 3} 17.42172
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.002638{col 56}{space 2} .1659122{col 67}{space 1}   -0.02{col 76}{space 3}0.987{col 84}{space 4}-.3312184{col 97}{space 3} .3259423
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0000228{col 56}{space 2} .0001365{col 67}{space 1}    0.17{col 76}{space 3}0.868{col 84}{space 4}-.0002476{col 97}{space 3} .0002932
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-3.657559{col 56}{space 2} 1.537832{col 67}{space 1}   -2.38{col 76}{space 3}0.019{col 84}{space 4}-6.703155{col 97}{space 3}-.6119628
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.6379494{col 56}{space 2} .5728118{col 67}{space 1}   -1.11{col 76}{space 3}0.268{col 84}{space 4}-1.772373{col 97}{space 3} .4964744
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 2.066237{col 56}{space 2} 2.709909{col 67}{space 1}    0.76{col 76}{space 3}0.447{col 84}{space 4}-3.300594{col 97}{space 3} 7.433069
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 2.992953{col 56}{space 2}  2.58851{col 67}{space 1}    1.16{col 76}{space 3}0.250{col 84}{space 4}-2.133455{col 97}{space 3} 8.119362
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 3.209507{col 56}{space 2} 2.430761{col 67}{space 1}    1.32{col 76}{space 3}0.189{col 84}{space 4}-1.604488{col 97}{space 3} 8.023502
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 4.060237{col 56}{space 2} 2.305242{col 67}{space 1}    1.76{col 76}{space 3}0.081{col 84}{space 4} -.505174{col 97}{space 3} 8.625648
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 3.299229{col 56}{space 2} 2.239974{col 67}{space 1}    1.47{col 76}{space 3}0.143{col 84}{space 4}-1.136923{col 97}{space 3} 7.735381
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 3.847387{col 56}{space 2} 2.230797{col 67}{space 1}    1.72{col 76}{space 3}0.087{col 84}{space 4}-.5705886{col 97}{space 3} 8.265363
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 4.952436{col 56}{space 2} 2.122847{col 67}{space 1}    2.33{col 76}{space 3}0.021{col 84}{space 4} .7482474{col 97}{space 3} 9.156624
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 4.697259{col 56}{space 2} 1.862759{col 67}{space 1}    2.52{col 76}{space 3}0.013{col 84}{space 4} 1.008163{col 97}{space 3} 8.386355
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 4.052549{col 56}{space 2} 1.773545{col 67}{space 1}    2.28{col 76}{space 3}0.024{col 84}{space 4} .5401363{col 97}{space 3} 7.564961
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 4.341846{col 56}{space 2} 1.662164{col 67}{space 1}    2.61{col 76}{space 3}0.010{col 84}{space 4} 1.050018{col 97}{space 3} 7.633674
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  4.00499{col 56}{space 2}  1.49927{col 67}{space 1}    2.67{col 76}{space 3}0.009{col 84}{space 4} 1.035765{col 97}{space 3} 6.974215
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 3.553577{col 56}{space 2} 1.342169{col 67}{space 1}    2.65{col 76}{space 3}0.009{col 84}{space 4} .8954825{col 97}{space 3} 6.211671
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  3.16031{col 56}{space 2} 1.279095{col 67}{space 1}    2.47{col 76}{space 3}0.015{col 84}{space 4} .6271301{col 97}{space 3}  5.69349
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 2.785197{col 56}{space 2} 1.201436{col 67}{space 1}    2.32{col 76}{space 3}0.022{col 84}{space 4} .4058163{col 97}{space 3} 5.164579
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  2.17188{col 56}{space 2} 1.147778{col 67}{space 1}    1.89{col 76}{space 3}0.061{col 84}{space 4}-.1012349{col 97}{space 3} 4.444995
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.484603{col 56}{space 2} 1.067412{col 67}{space 1}    1.39{col 76}{space 3}0.167{col 84}{space 4}-.6293508{col 97}{space 3} 3.598556
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .7576528{col 56}{space 2} .9181112{col 67}{space 1}    0.83{col 76}{space 3}0.411{col 84}{space 4}-1.060618{col 97}{space 3} 2.575924
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5270645{col 56}{space 2} .8092769{col 67}{space 1}    0.65{col 76}{space 3}0.516{col 84}{space 4}-1.075666{col 97}{space 3} 2.129795
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.034529{col 56}{space 2} .8245389{col 67}{space 1}    1.25{col 76}{space 3}0.212{col 84}{space 4}-.5984269{col 97}{space 3} 2.667485
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.847825{col 56}{space 2} .7438077{col 67}{space 1}    2.48{col 76}{space 3}0.014{col 84}{space 4} .3747532{col 97}{space 3} 3.320898
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.754456{col 56}{space 2} .6474531{col 67}{space 1}    2.71{col 76}{space 3}0.008{col 84}{space 4} .4722088{col 97}{space 3} 3.036703
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.123164{col 56}{space 2} .5631276{col 67}{space 1}    1.99{col 76}{space 3}0.048{col 84}{space 4} .0079192{col 97}{space 3} 2.238409
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.585929{col 56}{space 2} .5219974{col 67}{space 1}    3.04{col 76}{space 3}0.003{col 84}{space 4} .5521409{col 97}{space 3} 2.619718
{txt}{space 37}2013  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.004707{col 56}{space 2} .4636158{col 67}{space 1}    2.17{col 76}{space 3}0.032{col 84}{space 4} .0865402{col 97}{space 3} 1.922874
{txt}{space 37}2014  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .8543906{col 56}{space 2} .3139121{col 67}{space 1}    2.72{col 76}{space 3}0.007{col 84}{space 4} .2327041{col 97}{space 3} 1.476077
{txt}{space 37}2015  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-49.50184{col 56}{space 2} 20.86978{col 67}{space 1}   -2.37{col 76}{space 3}0.019{col 84}{space 4}-90.83334{col 97}{space 3}-8.170342
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} 10.061534
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} 4.8363768
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res} .81231263{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,306}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} 3.622084{col 32}{space 2} 3.356134{col 43}{space 1}    1.08{col 52}{space 3}0.280{col 60}{space 4}-2.955818{col 73}{space 3} 10.19999
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} 2.914629{col 32}{space 2} 2.924103{col 43}{space 1}    1.00{col 52}{space 3}0.319{col 60}{space 4}-2.816508{col 73}{space 3} 8.645765
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} 2.207173{col 32}{space 2} 2.498806{col 43}{space 1}    0.88{col 52}{space 3}0.377{col 60}{space 4}-2.690396{col 73}{space 3} 7.104743
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} 1.499718{col 32}{space 2} 2.084368{col 43}{space 1}    0.72{col 52}{space 3}0.472{col 60}{space 4}-2.585568{col 73}{space 3} 5.585005
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .7922631{col 32}{space 2} 1.688803{col 43}{space 1}    0.47{col 52}{space 3}0.639{col 60}{space 4}-2.517731{col 73}{space 3} 4.102257
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}  .084808{col 32}{space 2} 1.329071{col 43}{space 1}    0.06{col 52}{space 3}0.949{col 60}{space 4}-2.520124{col 73}{space 3}  2.68974
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.6226474{col 32}{space 2} 1.042934{col 43}{space 1}   -0.60{col 52}{space 3}0.550{col 60}{space 4}-2.666761{col 73}{space 3} 1.421466
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-1.330102{col 32}{space 2} .9032718{col 43}{space 1}   -1.47{col 52}{space 3}0.141{col 60}{space 4}-3.100483{col 73}{space 3}  .440278
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-2.037558{col 32}{space 2} .9751899{col 43}{space 1}   -2.09{col 52}{space 3}0.037{col 60}{space 4}-3.948895{col 73}{space 3}-.1262206
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-2.745013{col 32}{space 2} 1.221883{col 43}{space 1}   -2.25{col 52}{space 3}0.025{col 60}{space 4}-5.139859{col 73}{space 3}-.3501663
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-3.452468{col 32}{space 2}  1.56266{col 43}{space 1}   -2.21{col 52}{space 3}0.027{col 60}{space 4}-6.515226{col 73}{space 3}-.3897099
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on  log of amount issued) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *Appendix G: Credit ratings*
. 
. *Has Rating*
. xtreg  hasRating c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster (ccode) 
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,345
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       121

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.3960{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.3301{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.4
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.2997{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}37{txt},{res}120{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     6.35
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.7236{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:121} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                             hasRating{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}   -.2652{col 52}{space 2} .0686462{col 63}{space 1}   -3.86{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4}-.4011147{col 93}{space 3}-.1292853
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.122179{col 52}{space 2} .0353885{col 63}{space 1}   -3.45{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4}-.1922459{col 93}{space 3}-.0521121
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4124808{col 52}{space 2} .1095539{col 63}{space 1}    3.77{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4} .1955717{col 93}{space 3} .6293899
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0009198{col 52}{space 2} .0005352{col 63}{space 1}   -1.72{col 72}{space 3}0.088{col 80}{space 4}-.0019794{col 93}{space 3} .0001398
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0001691{col 52}{space 2} .0016359{col 63}{space 1}    0.10{col 72}{space 3}0.918{col 80}{space 4}-.0030699{col 93}{space 3} .0034081
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0002613{col 52}{space 2} .0033728{col 63}{space 1}   -0.08{col 72}{space 3}0.938{col 80}{space 4}-.0069392{col 93}{space 3} .0064166
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2491289{col 52}{space 2} .1171184{col 63}{space 1}    2.13{col 72}{space 3}0.035{col 80}{space 4} .0172425{col 93}{space 3} .4810152
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0005829{col 52}{space 2} .0020464{col 63}{space 1}   -0.28{col 72}{space 3}0.776{col 80}{space 4}-.0046347{col 93}{space 3} .0034689
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .7357781{col 52}{space 2} .1723224{col 63}{space 1}    4.27{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4} .3945917{col 93}{space 3} 1.076964
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0014791{col 52}{space 2} .0058284{col 63}{space 1}   -0.25{col 72}{space 3}0.800{col 80}{space 4}-.0130189{col 93}{space 3} .0100607
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0000227{col 52}{space 2} 6.92e-06{col 63}{space 1}   -3.28{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4}-.0000364{col 93}{space 3}-8.99e-06
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.129019{col 52}{space 2} .1334658{col 63}{space 1}   -0.97{col 72}{space 3}0.336{col 80}{space 4}-.3932721{col 93}{space 3} .1352341
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0313991{col 52}{space 2} .0207856{col 63}{space 1}   -1.51{col 72}{space 3}0.134{col 80}{space 4}-.0725532{col 93}{space 3} .0097549
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1059152{col 52}{space 2} .1570259{col 63}{space 1}    0.67{col 72}{space 3}0.501{col 80}{space 4}-.2049852{col 93}{space 3} .4168157
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0312378{col 52}{space 2}  .140163{col 63}{space 1}    0.22{col 72}{space 3}0.824{col 80}{space 4}-.2462751{col 93}{space 3} .3087507
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0273624{col 52}{space 2} .1275366{col 63}{space 1}    0.21{col 72}{space 3}0.830{col 80}{space 4}-.2251512{col 93}{space 3}  .279876
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0177762{col 52}{space 2} .1262275{col 63}{space 1}   -0.14{col 72}{space 3}0.888{col 80}{space 4}-.2676978{col 93}{space 3} .2321453
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0185038{col 52}{space 2} .1158216{col 63}{space 1}    0.16{col 72}{space 3}0.873{col 80}{space 4}-.2108149{col 93}{space 3} .2478224
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0282137{col 52}{space 2} .1025674{col 63}{space 1}    0.28{col 72}{space 3}0.784{col 80}{space 4}-.1748627{col 93}{space 3} .2312901
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0215963{col 52}{space 2} .0817694{col 63}{space 1}    0.26{col 72}{space 3}0.792{col 80}{space 4}-.1403015{col 93}{space 3} .1834941
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0484416{col 52}{space 2} .0752263{col 63}{space 1}    0.64{col 72}{space 3}0.521{col 80}{space 4}-.1005012{col 93}{space 3} .1973844
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0477057{col 52}{space 2} .0610716{col 63}{space 1}    0.78{col 72}{space 3}0.436{col 80}{space 4}-.0732117{col 93}{space 3} .1686232
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0500445{col 52}{space 2}  .056884{col 63}{space 1}    0.88{col 72}{space 3}0.381{col 80}{space 4}-.0625819{col 93}{space 3}  .162671
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0365622{col 52}{space 2} .0514234{col 63}{space 1}    0.71{col 72}{space 3}0.478{col 80}{space 4}-.0652525{col 93}{space 3} .1383769
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0427391{col 52}{space 2} .0481764{col 63}{space 1}    0.89{col 72}{space 3}0.377{col 80}{space 4}-.0526468{col 93}{space 3}  .138125
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0480499{col 52}{space 2} .0473649{col 63}{space 1}    1.01{col 72}{space 3}0.312{col 80}{space 4}-.0457293{col 93}{space 3} .1418291
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0574183{col 52}{space 2} .0448788{col 63}{space 1}    1.28{col 72}{space 3}0.203{col 80}{space 4}-.0314386{col 93}{space 3} .1462751
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .069731{col 52}{space 2} .0452607{col 63}{space 1}    1.54{col 72}{space 3}0.126{col 80}{space 4}-.0198821{col 93}{space 3} .1593441
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .069089{col 52}{space 2} .0423489{col 63}{space 1}    1.63{col 72}{space 3}0.105{col 80}{space 4}-.0147588{col 93}{space 3} .1529368
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0300248{col 52}{space 2} .0343558{col 63}{space 1}    0.87{col 72}{space 3}0.384{col 80}{space 4}-.0379973{col 93}{space 3} .0980469
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0408946{col 52}{space 2} .0319356{col 63}{space 1}    1.28{col 72}{space 3}0.203{col 80}{space 4}-.0223358{col 93}{space 3} .1041249
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0293537{col 52}{space 2} .0301058{col 63}{space 1}    0.98{col 72}{space 3}0.332{col 80}{space 4}-.0302536{col 93}{space 3}  .088961
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .027732{col 52}{space 2} .0218991{col 63}{space 1}    1.27{col 72}{space 3}0.208{col 80}{space 4}-.0156266{col 93}{space 3} .0710907
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0191606{col 52}{space 2} .0200153{col 63}{space 1}    0.96{col 72}{space 3}0.340{col 80}{space 4}-.0204684{col 93}{space 3} .0587895
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0039303{col 52}{space 2} .0160668{col 63}{space 1}    0.24{col 72}{space 3}0.807{col 80}{space 4}-.0278809{col 93}{space 3} .0357415
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0015048{col 52}{space 2} .0147643{col 63}{space 1}    0.10{col 72}{space 3}0.919{col 80}{space 4}-.0277276{col 93}{space 3} .0307372
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0149846{col 52}{space 2} .0086836{col 63}{space 1}   -1.73{col 72}{space 3}0.087{col 80}{space 4}-.0321775{col 93}{space 3} .0022083
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-1.667695{col 52}{space 2} 1.084627{col 63}{space 1}   -1.54{col 72}{space 3}0.127{col 80}{space 4}-3.815181{col 93}{space 3} .4797913
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} .34913632
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .21166313
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .73124196{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on likelihood of rating)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. xtreg hasRating c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule  gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster (ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     2,306
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       118

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.3914{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         5
{txt}     Between = {res}0.3481{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      19.5
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.3157{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}117{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     5.30
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.7178{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:118} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                                 hasRating{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3824954{col 56}{space 2} .2515518{col 67}{space 1}    1.52{col 76}{space 3}0.131{col 84}{space 4}-.1156897{col 97}{space 3} .8806806
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .6750183{col 56}{space 2} .2214637{col 67}{space 1}    3.05{col 76}{space 3}0.003{col 84}{space 4}  .236421{col 97}{space 3} 1.113616
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.9745412{col 56}{space 2} .2617497{col 67}{space 1}   -3.72{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-1.492923{col 97}{space 3}-.4561596
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0010792{col 56}{space 2} .0005288{col 67}{space 1}   -2.04{col 76}{space 3}0.044{col 84}{space 4}-.0021264{col 97}{space 3} -.000032
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0007668{col 56}{space 2} .0016464{col 67}{space 1}    0.47{col 76}{space 3}0.642{col 84}{space 4}-.0024939{col 97}{space 3} .0040275
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0010793{col 56}{space 2} .0032255{col 67}{space 1}   -0.33{col 76}{space 3}0.739{col 84}{space 4}-.0074672{col 97}{space 3} .0053086
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2469447{col 56}{space 2} .1209686{col 67}{space 1}    2.04{col 76}{space 3}0.043{col 84}{space 4} .0073727{col 97}{space 3} .4865167
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0001392{col 56}{space 2}  .002021{col 67}{space 1}    0.07{col 76}{space 3}0.945{col 84}{space 4}-.0038634{col 97}{space 3} .0041418
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .7011981{col 56}{space 2} .1691312{col 67}{space 1}    4.15{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4} .3662425{col 97}{space 3} 1.036154
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0059881{col 56}{space 2} .0057398{col 67}{space 1}   -1.04{col 76}{space 3}0.299{col 84}{space 4}-.0173554{col 97}{space 3} .0053792
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0000234{col 56}{space 2} 7.38e-06{col 67}{space 1}   -3.17{col 76}{space 3}0.002{col 84}{space 4} -.000038{col 97}{space 3}-8.76e-06
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0910864{col 56}{space 2} .1244345{col 67}{space 1}   -0.73{col 76}{space 3}0.466{col 84}{space 4}-.3375224{col 97}{space 3} .1553497
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0347302{col 56}{space 2} .0225257{col 67}{space 1}   -1.54{col 76}{space 3}0.126{col 84}{space 4}-.0793413{col 97}{space 3} .0098808
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .124972{col 56}{space 2} .1641374{col 67}{space 1}    0.76{col 76}{space 3}0.448{col 84}{space 4}-.2000935{col 97}{space 3} .4500375
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0966684{col 56}{space 2} .1523647{col 67}{space 1}    0.63{col 76}{space 3}0.527{col 84}{space 4}-.2050818{col 97}{space 3} .3984187
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0175324{col 56}{space 2} .1405165{col 67}{space 1}    0.12{col 76}{space 3}0.901{col 84}{space 4}-.2607532{col 97}{space 3} .2958179
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .004016{col 56}{space 2} .1255909{col 67}{space 1}    0.03{col 76}{space 3}0.975{col 84}{space 4}-.2447102{col 97}{space 3} .2527421
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0419094{col 56}{space 2} .1251282{col 67}{space 1}   -0.33{col 76}{space 3}0.738{col 84}{space 4}-.2897192{col 97}{space 3} .2059004
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.001641{col 56}{space 2}  .115109{col 67}{space 1}   -0.01{col 76}{space 3}0.989{col 84}{space 4}-.2296082{col 97}{space 3} .2263263
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0132719{col 56}{space 2} .1011519{col 67}{space 1}    0.13{col 76}{space 3}0.896{col 84}{space 4}-.1870541{col 97}{space 3} .2135979
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0087728{col 56}{space 2} .0847129{col 67}{space 1}   -0.10{col 76}{space 3}0.918{col 84}{space 4}-.1765421{col 97}{space 3} .1589966
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0304384{col 56}{space 2}  .078352{col 67}{space 1}    0.39{col 76}{space 3}0.698{col 84}{space 4}-.1247337{col 97}{space 3} .1856104
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .037771{col 56}{space 2} .0632484{col 67}{space 1}    0.60{col 76}{space 3}0.552{col 84}{space 4}-.0874891{col 97}{space 3}  .163031
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .034119{col 56}{space 2} .0575151{col 67}{space 1}    0.59{col 76}{space 3}0.554{col 84}{space 4}-.0797866{col 97}{space 3} .1480247
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0350932{col 56}{space 2} .0514733{col 67}{space 1}    0.68{col 76}{space 3}0.497{col 84}{space 4} -.066847{col 97}{space 3} .1370333
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0362672{col 56}{space 2} .0483616{col 67}{space 1}    0.75{col 76}{space 3}0.455{col 84}{space 4}-.0595104{col 97}{space 3} .1320447
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0405778{col 56}{space 2} .0468726{col 67}{space 1}    0.87{col 76}{space 3}0.388{col 84}{space 4}-.0522509{col 97}{space 3} .1334066
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0500511{col 56}{space 2} .0450363{col 67}{space 1}    1.11{col 76}{space 3}0.269{col 84}{space 4} -.039141{col 97}{space 3} .1392432
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0655994{col 56}{space 2} .0450853{col 67}{space 1}    1.46{col 76}{space 3}0.148{col 84}{space 4}-.0236896{col 97}{space 3} .1548884
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0633284{col 56}{space 2} .0425206{col 67}{space 1}    1.49{col 76}{space 3}0.139{col 84}{space 4}-.0208814{col 97}{space 3} .1475381
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0265549{col 56}{space 2} .0338849{col 67}{space 1}    0.78{col 76}{space 3}0.435{col 84}{space 4}-.0405523{col 97}{space 3} .0936621
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0374028{col 56}{space 2} .0315818{col 67}{space 1}    1.18{col 76}{space 3}0.239{col 84}{space 4}-.0251434{col 97}{space 3}  .099949
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0283973{col 56}{space 2} .0302553{col 67}{space 1}    0.94{col 76}{space 3}0.350{col 84}{space 4}-.0315218{col 97}{space 3} .0883163
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0235616{col 56}{space 2} .0220734{col 67}{space 1}    1.07{col 76}{space 3}0.288{col 84}{space 4}-.0201535{col 97}{space 3} .0672768
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0209241{col 56}{space 2} .0197416{col 67}{space 1}    1.06{col 76}{space 3}0.291{col 84}{space 4}-.0181731{col 97}{space 3} .0600213
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0091658{col 56}{space 2} .0158022{col 67}{space 1}    0.58{col 76}{space 3}0.563{col 84}{space 4}-.0221296{col 97}{space 3} .0404613
{txt}{space 37}2013  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0009617{col 56}{space 2} .0131998{col 67}{space 1}   -0.07{col 76}{space 3}0.942{col 84}{space 4}-.0271033{col 97}{space 3} .0251799
{txt}{space 37}2014  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0097666{col 56}{space 2} .0081331{col 67}{space 1}   -1.20{col 76}{space 3}0.232{col 84}{space 4}-.0258737{col 97}{space 3} .0063406
{txt}{space 37}2015  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.916499{col 56}{space 2} 1.134089{col 67}{space 1}   -1.69{col 76}{space 3}0.094{col 84}{space 4}-4.162502{col 97}{space 3} .3295039
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} .33020234
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} .21370236
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res} .70479622{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:2,306}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .6750183{col 32}{space 2} .2214637{col 43}{space 1}    3.05{col 52}{space 3}0.002{col 60}{space 4} .2409574{col 73}{space 3} 1.109079
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .5775642{col 32}{space 2} .1956529{col 43}{space 1}    2.95{col 52}{space 3}0.003{col 60}{space 4} .1940916{col 73}{space 3} .9610368
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .4801101{col 32}{space 2} .1699535{col 43}{space 1}    2.82{col 52}{space 3}0.005{col 60}{space 4} .1470074{col 73}{space 3} .8132128
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}  .382656{col 32}{space 2} .1444249{col 43}{space 1}    2.65{col 52}{space 3}0.008{col 60}{space 4} .0995883{col 73}{space 3} .6657237
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2852018{col 32}{space 2} .1191772{col 43}{space 1}    2.39{col 52}{space 3}0.017{col 60}{space 4} .0516188{col 73}{space 3} .5187849
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1877477{col 32}{space 2} .0944357{col 43}{space 1}    1.99{col 52}{space 3}0.047{col 60}{space 4} .0026571{col 73}{space 3} .3728384
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0902936{col 32}{space 2} .0707338{col 43}{space 1}    1.28{col 52}{space 3}0.202{col 60}{space 4}-.0483421{col 73}{space 3} .2289292
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0071605{col 32}{space 2} .0495852{col 43}{space 1}   -0.14{col 52}{space 3}0.885{col 60}{space 4}-.1043456{col 73}{space 3} .0900246
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.1046147{col 32}{space 2}  .035838{col 43}{space 1}   -2.92{col 52}{space 3}0.004{col 60}{space 4}-.1748559{col 73}{space 3}-.0343734
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.2020687{col 32}{space 2} .0384747{col 43}{space 1}   -5.25{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-.2774777{col 73}{space 3}-.1266598
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.2995229{col 32}{space 2} .0551951{col 43}{space 1}   -5.43{col 52}{space 3}0.000{col 60}{space 4}-.4077032{col 73}{space 3}-.1913426
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on likelihood of rating) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * SP-rating*
. xtreg  SPnum c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster (ccode) 
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,761
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       110

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.4802{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         1
{txt}     Between = {res}0.6590{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      16.0
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.6594{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}37{txt},{res}109{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}    11.07
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.6284{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:110} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                                 SPnum{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1098893{col 52}{space 2}   .37196{col 63}{space 1}    0.30{col 72}{space 3}0.768{col 80}{space 4}-.6273233{col 93}{space 3} .8471019
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2072685{col 52}{space 2} .2641603{col 63}{space 1}    0.78{col 72}{space 3}0.434{col 80}{space 4}-.3162887{col 93}{space 3} .7308258
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2770177{col 52}{space 2} .4378501{col 63}{space 1}    0.63{col 72}{space 3}0.528{col 80}{space 4} -.590787{col 93}{space 3} 1.144822
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.049783{col 52}{space 2} .0067318{col 63}{space 1}   -7.40{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4}-.0631252{col 93}{space 3}-.0364408
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.048032{col 52}{space 2} .0150734{col 63}{space 1}   -3.19{col 72}{space 3}0.002{col 80}{space 4} -.077907{col 93}{space 3} -.018157
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0461936{col 52}{space 2} .0229564{col 63}{space 1}    2.01{col 72}{space 3}0.047{col 80}{space 4} .0006947{col 93}{space 3} .0916925
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 5.073538{col 52}{space 2}  1.05873{col 63}{space 1}    4.79{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4} 2.975169{col 93}{space 3} 7.171907
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0271092{col 52}{space 2} .0161781{col 63}{space 1}   -1.68{col 72}{space 3}0.097{col 80}{space 4}-.0591736{col 93}{space 3} .0049552
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-1.709079{col 52}{space 2} .8852734{col 63}{space 1}   -1.93{col 72}{space 3}0.056{col 80}{space 4}-3.463662{col 93}{space 3} .0455039
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0699237{col 52}{space 2} .0474581{col 63}{space 1}   -1.47{col 72}{space 3}0.144{col 80}{space 4}-.1639842{col 93}{space 3} .0241367
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0000678{col 52}{space 2} .0000645{col 63}{space 1}    1.05{col 72}{space 3}0.296{col 80}{space 4}-.0000601{col 93}{space 3} .0001956
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.7175894{col 52}{space 2} .6554155{col 63}{space 1}   -1.09{col 72}{space 3}0.276{col 80}{space 4}-2.016602{col 93}{space 3} .5814228
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.6795014{col 52}{space 2} .2352394{col 63}{space 1}   -2.89{col 72}{space 3}0.005{col 80}{space 4}-1.145738{col 93}{space 3}-.2132645
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .9860461{col 52}{space 2} 1.077727{col 63}{space 1}    0.91{col 72}{space 3}0.362{col 80}{space 4}-1.149974{col 93}{space 3} 3.122066
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.163917{col 52}{space 2} 1.005225{col 63}{space 1}    1.16{col 72}{space 3}0.249{col 80}{space 4}-.8284061{col 93}{space 3} 3.156241
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.401604{col 52}{space 2} .9381264{col 63}{space 1}    1.49{col 72}{space 3}0.138{col 80}{space 4}-.4577321{col 93}{space 3}  3.26094
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.377552{col 52}{space 2}  .876891{col 63}{space 1}    1.57{col 72}{space 3}0.119{col 80}{space 4}-.3604171{col 93}{space 3} 3.115522
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.278797{col 52}{space 2}  .789739{col 63}{space 1}    1.62{col 72}{space 3}0.108{col 80}{space 4}-.2864401{col 93}{space 3} 2.844034
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.187186{col 52}{space 2} .7349862{col 63}{space 1}    1.62{col 72}{space 3}0.109{col 80}{space 4}-.2695324{col 93}{space 3} 2.643905
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.400605{col 52}{space 2} .6590288{col 63}{space 1}    2.13{col 72}{space 3}0.036{col 80}{space 4} .0944317{col 93}{space 3} 2.706779
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.033436{col 52}{space 2} .6606638{col 63}{space 1}    1.56{col 72}{space 3}0.121{col 80}{space 4}-.2759782{col 93}{space 3}  2.34285
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .7579625{col 52}{space 2} .6415723{col 63}{space 1}    1.18{col 72}{space 3}0.240{col 80}{space 4}-.5136128{col 93}{space 3} 2.029538
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .7404005{col 52}{space 2} .5620115{col 63}{space 1}    1.32{col 72}{space 3}0.190{col 80}{space 4} -.373488{col 93}{space 3} 1.854289
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.034377{col 52}{space 2} .5073332{col 63}{space 1}    2.04{col 72}{space 3}0.044{col 80}{space 4} .0288592{col 93}{space 3} 2.039895
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.072412{col 52}{space 2} .4639297{col 63}{space 1}    2.31{col 72}{space 3}0.023{col 80}{space 4} .1529186{col 93}{space 3} 1.991906
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .9027333{col 52}{space 2} .4453672{col 63}{space 1}    2.03{col 72}{space 3}0.045{col 80}{space 4}   .02003{col 93}{space 3} 1.785437
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .8011588{col 52}{space 2} .3957944{col 63}{space 1}    2.02{col 72}{space 3}0.045{col 80}{space 4} .0167071{col 93}{space 3}  1.58561
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5769629{col 52}{space 2} .3919885{col 63}{space 1}    1.47{col 72}{space 3}0.144{col 80}{space 4}-.1999456{col 93}{space 3} 1.353871
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5106399{col 52}{space 2} .3543042{col 63}{space 1}    1.44{col 72}{space 3}0.152{col 80}{space 4}-.1915794{col 93}{space 3} 1.212859
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4379016{col 52}{space 2} .3011983{col 63}{space 1}    1.45{col 72}{space 3}0.149{col 80}{space 4}-.1590637{col 93}{space 3} 1.034867
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2996969{col 52}{space 2} .2804497{col 63}{space 1}    1.07{col 72}{space 3}0.288{col 80}{space 4}-.2561453{col 93}{space 3} .8555392
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5689195{col 52}{space 2} .2922562{col 63}{space 1}    1.95{col 72}{space 3}0.054{col 80}{space 4}-.0103229{col 93}{space 3} 1.148162
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .6414491{col 52}{space 2} .2423331{col 63}{space 1}    2.65{col 72}{space 3}0.009{col 80}{space 4} .1611528{col 93}{space 3} 1.121745
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4192394{col 52}{space 2} .2076069{col 63}{space 1}    2.02{col 72}{space 3}0.046{col 80}{space 4} .0077692{col 93}{space 3} .8307096
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1650072{col 52}{space 2} .1749652{col 63}{space 1}    0.94{col 72}{space 3}0.348{col 80}{space 4}-.1817681{col 93}{space 3} .5117825
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1215826{col 52}{space 2} .1358073{col 63}{space 1}    0.90{col 72}{space 3}0.373{col 80}{space 4} -.147583{col 93}{space 3} .3907482
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .084252{col 52}{space 2} .0781608{col 63}{space 1}    1.08{col 72}{space 3}0.283{col 80}{space 4}-.0706601{col 93}{space 3} .2391641
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-28.33262{col 52}{space 2} 10.02119{col 63}{space 1}   -2.83{col 72}{space 3}0.006{col 80}{space 4}-48.19429{col 93}{space 3} -8.47095
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} 3.8079878
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} 1.2240693
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .90634823{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on rating)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. xtreg SPnum c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule  gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster (ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,745
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       107

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.4793{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         1
{txt}     Between = {res}0.6901{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      16.3
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.6604{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}106{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}    11.21
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.5737{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:107} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                                     SPnum{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.9162385{col 56}{space 2} 1.720654{col 67}{space 1}   -0.53{col 76}{space 3}0.595{col 84}{space 4}-4.327603{col 97}{space 3} 2.495125
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .7795997{col 56}{space 2} .8504159{col 67}{space 1}    0.92{col 76}{space 3}0.361{col 84}{space 4}-.9064325{col 97}{space 3} 2.465632
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.692525{col 56}{space 2} 1.121498{col 67}{space 1}   -0.62{col 76}{space 3}0.538{col 84}{space 4}-2.916004{col 97}{space 3} 1.530954
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0495674{col 56}{space 2} .0066175{col 67}{space 1}   -7.49{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-.0626873{col 97}{space 3}-.0364475
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0464754{col 56}{space 2} .0151574{col 67}{space 1}   -3.07{col 76}{space 3}0.003{col 84}{space 4}-.0765263{col 97}{space 3}-.0164244
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0475937{col 56}{space 2} .0233455{col 67}{space 1}    2.04{col 76}{space 3}0.044{col 84}{space 4}  .001309{col 97}{space 3} .0938785
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  4.90287{col 56}{space 2} 1.080024{col 67}{space 1}    4.54{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4} 2.761616{col 97}{space 3} 7.044123
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0275272{col 56}{space 2} .0168198{col 67}{space 1}   -1.64{col 76}{space 3}0.105{col 84}{space 4} -.060874{col 97}{space 3} .0058197
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-1.839346{col 56}{space 2} .9044857{col 67}{space 1}   -2.03{col 76}{space 3}0.044{col 84}{space 4}-3.632577{col 97}{space 3}-.0461153
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0495028{col 56}{space 2} .0467262{col 67}{space 1}   -1.06{col 76}{space 3}0.292{col 84}{space 4} -.142142{col 97}{space 3} .0431365
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0000643{col 56}{space 2} .0000598{col 67}{space 1}    1.07{col 76}{space 3}0.285{col 84}{space 4}-.0000543{col 97}{space 3} .0001828
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.7159182{col 56}{space 2} .6598572{col 67}{space 1}   -1.08{col 76}{space 3}0.280{col 84}{space 4}-2.024149{col 97}{space 3}  .592313
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -.677946{col 56}{space 2} .2258649{col 67}{space 1}   -3.00{col 76}{space 3}0.003{col 84}{space 4}-1.125745{col 97}{space 3} -.230147
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5041276{col 56}{space 2} 1.224045{col 67}{space 1}    0.41{col 76}{space 3}0.681{col 84}{space 4}-1.922661{col 97}{space 3} 2.930916
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .7715687{col 56}{space 2} 1.124619{col 67}{space 1}    0.69{col 76}{space 3}0.494{col 84}{space 4}-1.458097{col 97}{space 3} 3.001234
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .9548346{col 56}{space 2} 1.050594{col 67}{space 1}    0.91{col 76}{space 3}0.365{col 84}{space 4} -1.12807{col 97}{space 3} 3.037739
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.209876{col 56}{space 2} .9822248{col 67}{space 1}    1.23{col 76}{space 3}0.221{col 84}{space 4}-.7374802{col 97}{space 3} 3.157232
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  1.20411{col 56}{space 2} .9216002{col 67}{space 1}    1.31{col 76}{space 3}0.194{col 84}{space 4} -.623052{col 97}{space 3} 3.031272
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.122674{col 56}{space 2} .8203111{col 67}{space 1}    1.37{col 76}{space 3}0.174{col 84}{space 4}-.5036726{col 97}{space 3}  2.74902
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  1.05204{col 56}{space 2} .7614235{col 67}{space 1}    1.38{col 76}{space 3}0.170{col 84}{space 4}-.4575559{col 97}{space 3} 2.561637
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.286309{col 56}{space 2} .6826364{col 67}{space 1}    1.88{col 76}{space 3}0.062{col 84}{space 4}-.0670844{col 97}{space 3} 2.639702
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .9257066{col 56}{space 2}  .686788{col 67}{space 1}    1.35{col 76}{space 3}0.181{col 84}{space 4}-.4359175{col 97}{space 3} 2.287331
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .6623487{col 56}{space 2}  .661202{col 67}{space 1}    1.00{col 76}{space 3}0.319{col 84}{space 4}-.6485486{col 97}{space 3} 1.973246
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .6536511{col 56}{space 2} .5777033{col 67}{space 1}    1.13{col 76}{space 3}0.260{col 84}{space 4} -.491702{col 97}{space 3} 1.799004
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .9211678{col 56}{space 2} .5217121{col 67}{space 1}    1.77{col 76}{space 3}0.080{col 84}{space 4}-.1131771{col 97}{space 3} 1.955513
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .9653455{col 56}{space 2}  .478222{col 67}{space 1}    2.02{col 76}{space 3}0.046{col 84}{space 4} .0172238{col 97}{space 3} 1.913467
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .8164516{col 56}{space 2} .4629901{col 67}{space 1}    1.76{col 76}{space 3}0.081{col 84}{space 4}-.1014712{col 97}{space 3} 1.734374
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .7272021{col 56}{space 2} .4150843{col 67}{space 1}    1.75{col 76}{space 3}0.083{col 84}{space 4} -.095743{col 97}{space 3} 1.550147
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5513464{col 56}{space 2} .4136742{col 67}{space 1}    1.33{col 76}{space 3}0.185{col 84}{space 4}-.2688029{col 97}{space 3} 1.371496
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5169412{col 56}{space 2} .3756473{col 67}{space 1}    1.38{col 76}{space 3}0.172{col 84}{space 4} -.227816{col 97}{space 3} 1.261698
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .4090694{col 56}{space 2} .3143882{col 67}{space 1}    1.30{col 76}{space 3}0.196{col 84}{space 4}-.2142357{col 97}{space 3} 1.032375
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2731931{col 56}{space 2} .2909602{col 67}{space 1}    0.94{col 76}{space 3}0.350{col 84}{space 4}-.3036638{col 97}{space 3}   .85005
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5188178{col 56}{space 2} .2999612{col 67}{space 1}    1.73{col 76}{space 3}0.087{col 84}{space 4}-.0758845{col 97}{space 3}  1.11352
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .6121618{col 56}{space 2} .2515259{col 67}{space 1}    2.43{col 76}{space 3}0.017{col 84}{space 4} .1134873{col 97}{space 3} 1.110836
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .4105532{col 56}{space 2} .2166327{col 67}{space 1}    1.90{col 76}{space 3}0.061{col 84}{space 4}-.0189423{col 97}{space 3} .8400486
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2184548{col 56}{space 2} .1806533{col 67}{space 1}    1.21{col 76}{space 3}0.229{col 84}{space 4} -.139708{col 97}{space 3} .5766175
{txt}{space 37}2013  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1470049{col 56}{space 2} .1397865{col 67}{space 1}    1.05{col 76}{space 3}0.295{col 84}{space 4}-.1301354{col 97}{space 3} .4241453
{txt}{space 37}2014  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0824687{col 56}{space 2} .0803324{col 67}{space 1}    1.03{col 76}{space 3}0.307{col 84}{space 4}-.0767981{col 97}{space 3} .2417355
{txt}{space 37}2015  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-25.94446{col 56}{space 2} 10.39731{col 67}{space 1}   -2.50{col 76}{space 3}0.014{col 84}{space 4}-46.55813{col 97}{space 3}-5.330783
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} 3.4715389
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} 1.2209215
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res} .88992588{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,745}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .7795997{col 32}{space 2} .8504159{col 43}{space 1}    0.92{col 52}{space 3}0.359{col 60}{space 4}-.8871848{col 73}{space 3} 2.446384
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .7103472{col 32}{space 2} .7441486{col 43}{space 1}    0.95{col 52}{space 3}0.340{col 60}{space 4}-.7481572{col 73}{space 3} 2.168852
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .6410947{col 32}{space 2} .6398924{col 43}{space 1}    1.00{col 52}{space 3}0.316{col 60}{space 4}-.6130713{col 73}{space 3} 1.895261
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .5718422{col 32}{space 2} .5388158{col 43}{space 1}    1.06{col 52}{space 3}0.289{col 60}{space 4}-.4842175{col 73}{space 3} 1.627902
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .5025897{col 32}{space 2} .4431004{col 43}{space 1}    1.13{col 52}{space 3}0.257{col 60}{space 4}-.3658711{col 73}{space 3} 1.371051
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .4333372{col 32}{space 2} .3570834{col 43}{space 1}    1.21{col 52}{space 3}0.225{col 60}{space 4}-.2665334{col 73}{space 3} 1.133208
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .3640847{col 32}{space 2} .2895415{col 43}{space 1}    1.26{col 52}{space 3}0.209{col 60}{space 4}-.2034063{col 73}{space 3} .9315756
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2948322{col 32}{space 2} .2555684{col 43}{space 1}    1.15{col 52}{space 3}0.249{col 60}{space 4}-.2060727{col 73}{space 3}  .795737
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2255797{col 32}{space 2} .2682373{col 43}{space 1}    0.84{col 52}{space 3}0.400{col 60}{space 4}-.3001558{col 73}{space 3} .7513152
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1563272{col 32}{space 2} .3220908{col 43}{space 1}    0.49{col 52}{space 3}0.627{col 60}{space 4}-.4749591{col 73}{space 3} .7876135
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0870747{col 32}{space 2} .4008601{col 43}{space 1}    0.22{col 52}{space 3}0.828{col 60}{space 4}-.6985967{col 73}{space 3}  .872746
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on rating) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Moody's rating*
. xtreg  MoodysNUM c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster (ccode) 
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,767
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       108

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.4125{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         1
{txt}     Between = {res}0.6434{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      16.4
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.6144{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        25

{txt}{col 49}F({res}37{txt},{res}107{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     6.05
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.5115{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:108} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                             MoodysNUM{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1906003{col 52}{space 2} .3125243{col 63}{space 1}   -0.61{col 72}{space 3}0.543{col 80}{space 4}-.8101432{col 93}{space 3} .4289426
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0021107{col 52}{space 2} .3667818{col 63}{space 1}   -0.01{col 72}{space 3}0.995{col 80}{space 4}-.7292128{col 93}{space 3} .7249914
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .064845{col 52}{space 2} .3312717{col 63}{space 1}    0.20{col 72}{space 3}0.845{col 80}{space 4}-.5918625{col 93}{space 3} .7215525
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0406413{col 52}{space 2} .0087744{col 63}{space 1}   -4.63{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4}-.0580355{col 93}{space 3} -.023247
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.072301{col 52}{space 2} .0180671{col 63}{space 1}   -4.00{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4} -.108117{col 93}{space 3} -.036485
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1130414{col 52}{space 2} .0321427{col 63}{space 1}    3.52{col 72}{space 3}0.001{col 80}{space 4} .0493223{col 93}{space 3} .1767606
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 4.698506{col 52}{space 2} 1.297947{col 63}{space 1}    3.62{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4} 2.125478{col 93}{space 3} 7.271534
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0502513{col 52}{space 2} .0174048{col 63}{space 1}   -2.89{col 72}{space 3}0.005{col 80}{space 4}-.0847544{col 93}{space 3}-.0157483
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.6519483{col 52}{space 2} 1.050991{col 63}{space 1}   -0.62{col 72}{space 3}0.536{col 80}{space 4}-2.735414{col 93}{space 3} 1.431518
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0252882{col 52}{space 2} .0405423{col 63}{space 1}   -0.62{col 72}{space 3}0.534{col 80}{space 4}-.1056585{col 93}{space 3} .0550821
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0000431{col 52}{space 2} .0000848{col 63}{space 1}    0.51{col 72}{space 3}0.613{col 80}{space 4} -.000125{col 93}{space 3} .0002111
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3481435{col 52}{space 2} .3562518{col 63}{space 1}    0.98{col 72}{space 3}0.331{col 80}{space 4}-.3580842{col 93}{space 3} 1.054371
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.8468804{col 52}{space 2} .2710862{col 63}{space 1}   -3.12{col 72}{space 3}0.002{col 80}{space 4}-1.384277{col 93}{space 3}-.3094837
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1991  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.140291{col 52}{space 2} 1.056256{col 63}{space 1}    1.08{col 72}{space 3}0.283{col 80}{space 4}-.9536138{col 93}{space 3} 3.234195
{txt}{space 33}1992  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.165859{col 52}{space 2}  .987807{col 63}{space 1}    1.18{col 72}{space 3}0.241{col 80}{space 4}-.7923531{col 93}{space 3} 3.124071
{txt}{space 33}1993  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.350053{col 52}{space 2} .9270824{col 63}{space 1}    1.46{col 72}{space 3}0.148{col 80}{space 4}-.4877798{col 93}{space 3} 3.187886
{txt}{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.320308{col 52}{space 2} .8582111{col 63}{space 1}    1.54{col 72}{space 3}0.127{col 80}{space 4}-.3809959{col 93}{space 3} 3.021611
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.329259{col 52}{space 2} .8126621{col 63}{space 1}    1.64{col 72}{space 3}0.105{col 80}{space 4}-.2817487{col 93}{space 3} 2.940267
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .8516044{col 52}{space 2} .7676988{col 63}{space 1}    1.11{col 72}{space 3}0.270{col 80}{space 4} -.670269{col 93}{space 3} 2.373478
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.140767{col 52}{space 2} .7320456{col 63}{space 1}    1.56{col 72}{space 3}0.122{col 80}{space 4}-.3104284{col 93}{space 3} 2.591962
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.003852{col 52}{space 2} .7173216{col 63}{space 1}    1.40{col 72}{space 3}0.165{col 80}{space 4}-.4181543{col 93}{space 3} 2.425858
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.085123{col 52}{space 2} .6658565{col 63}{space 1}    1.63{col 72}{space 3}0.106{col 80}{space 4}-.2348603{col 93}{space 3} 2.405105
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .9096814{col 52}{space 2} .5932874{col 63}{space 1}    1.53{col 72}{space 3}0.128{col 80}{space 4}-.2664416{col 93}{space 3} 2.085804
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.013755{col 52}{space 2} .5630568{col 63}{space 1}    1.80{col 72}{space 3}0.075{col 80}{space 4}-.1024391{col 93}{space 3}  2.12995
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.270948{col 52}{space 2} .5433932{col 63}{space 1}    2.34{col 72}{space 3}0.021{col 80}{space 4}  .193734{col 93}{space 3} 2.348161
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.454567{col 52}{space 2} .5109908{col 63}{space 1}    2.85{col 72}{space 3}0.005{col 80}{space 4} .4415873{col 93}{space 3} 2.467547
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 1.266683{col 52}{space 2} .4513524{col 63}{space 1}    2.81{col 72}{space 3}0.006{col 80}{space 4} .3719294{col 93}{space 3} 2.161436
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .8894274{col 52}{space 2} .4146648{col 63}{space 1}    2.14{col 72}{space 3}0.034{col 80}{space 4} .0674029{col 93}{space 3} 1.711452
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .7638842{col 52}{space 2} .3632681{col 63}{space 1}    2.10{col 72}{space 3}0.038{col 80}{space 4} .0437476{col 93}{space 3} 1.484021
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5594117{col 52}{space 2} .3057367{col 63}{space 1}    1.83{col 72}{space 3}0.070{col 80}{space 4}-.0466757{col 93}{space 3} 1.165499
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3578458{col 52}{space 2} .2955889{col 63}{space 1}    1.21{col 72}{space 3}0.229{col 80}{space 4}-.2281248{col 93}{space 3} .9438163
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .7067398{col 52}{space 2} .3259917{col 63}{space 1}    2.17{col 72}{space 3}0.032{col 80}{space 4} .0604993{col 93}{space 3}  1.35298
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .8553295{col 52}{space 2} .2667827{col 63}{space 1}    3.21{col 72}{space 3}0.002{col 80}{space 4} .3264639{col 93}{space 3} 1.384195
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .415852{col 52}{space 2} .2186834{col 63}{space 1}    1.90{col 72}{space 3}0.060{col 80}{space 4}-.0176624{col 93}{space 3} .8493664
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0512226{col 52}{space 2} .1811135{col 63}{space 1}    0.28{col 72}{space 3}0.778{col 80}{space 4}-.3078137{col 93}{space 3} .4102589
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1169723{col 52}{space 2} .1295938{col 63}{space 1}   -0.90{col 72}{space 3}0.369{col 80}{space 4}-.3738768{col 93}{space 3} .1399323
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.1049714{col 52}{space 2} .0796853{col 63}{space 1}   -1.32{col 72}{space 3}0.191{col 80}{space 4}-.2629382{col 93}{space 3} .0529954
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-26.19556{col 52}{space 2} 12.26586{col 63}{space 1}   -2.14{col 72}{space 3}0.035{col 80}{space 4} -50.5112{col 93}{space 3}-1.879914
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} 3.4986592
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} 1.3655583
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .86779858{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on rating)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. xtreg MoodysNUM c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule  gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster (ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,745
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}       106

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.4163{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         1
{txt}     Between = {res}0.6528{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      16.5
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.6248{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        26

{txt}{col 49}F({res}38{txt},{res}105{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}     6.38
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.5382{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:106} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                                 MoodysNUM{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.899133{col 56}{space 2} 1.715134{col 67}{space 1}    1.11{col 76}{space 3}0.271{col 84}{space 4}-1.501662{col 97}{space 3} 5.299927
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1753252{col 56}{space 2} 1.217907{col 67}{space 1}    0.14{col 76}{space 3}0.886{col 84}{space 4}-2.239559{col 97}{space 3} 2.590209
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.2130383{col 56}{space 2} 1.549536{col 67}{space 1}   -0.14{col 76}{space 3}0.891{col 84}{space 4}-3.285482{col 97}{space 3} 2.859405
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0413464{col 56}{space 2} .0086398{col 67}{space 1}   -4.79{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-.0584776{col 97}{space 3}-.0242152
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0655195{col 56}{space 2} .0176178{col 67}{space 1}   -3.72{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-.1004523{col 97}{space 3}-.0305867
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1103235{col 56}{space 2} .0310451{col 67}{space 1}    3.55{col 76}{space 3}0.001{col 84}{space 4} .0487668{col 97}{space 3} .1718802
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 4.637062{col 56}{space 2} 1.323936{col 67}{space 1}    3.50{col 76}{space 3}0.001{col 84}{space 4} 2.011943{col 97}{space 3} 7.262182
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0502724{col 56}{space 2} .0177004{col 67}{space 1}   -2.84{col 76}{space 3}0.005{col 84}{space 4} -.085369{col 97}{space 3}-.0151757
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.8442791{col 56}{space 2} 1.045676{col 67}{space 1}   -0.81{col 76}{space 3}0.421{col 84}{space 4}-2.917662{col 97}{space 3} 1.229103
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0158478{col 56}{space 2} .0396089{col 67}{space 1}   -0.40{col 76}{space 3}0.690{col 84}{space 4}-.0943849{col 97}{space 3} .0626893
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0000442{col 56}{space 2} .0000852{col 67}{space 1}    0.52{col 76}{space 3}0.605{col 84}{space 4}-.0001247{col 97}{space 3} .0002132
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3325344{col 56}{space 2} .3422066{col 67}{space 1}    0.97{col 76}{space 3}0.333{col 84}{space 4}-.3459981{col 97}{space 3} 1.011067
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.8820947{col 56}{space 2} .2749649{col 67}{space 1}   -3.21{col 76}{space 3}0.002{col 84}{space 4}-1.427299{col 97}{space 3}-.3368901
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1990  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .7950529{col 56}{space 2} 1.195187{col 67}{space 1}    0.67{col 76}{space 3}0.507{col 84}{space 4}-1.574782{col 97}{space 3} 3.164887
{txt}{space 37}1991  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .9759487{col 56}{space 2} 1.092329{col 67}{space 1}    0.89{col 76}{space 3}0.374{col 84}{space 4}-1.189938{col 97}{space 3} 3.141835
{txt}{space 37}1992  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  1.00952{col 56}{space 2} 1.019538{col 67}{space 1}    0.99{col 76}{space 3}0.324{col 84}{space 4}-1.012036{col 97}{space 3} 3.031076
{txt}{space 37}1993  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.211884{col 56}{space 2} .9584286{col 67}{space 1}    1.26{col 76}{space 3}0.209{col 84}{space 4} -.688503{col 97}{space 3} 3.112271
{txt}{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.184944{col 56}{space 2} .8959747{col 67}{space 1}    1.32{col 76}{space 3}0.189{col 84}{space 4}-.5916089{col 97}{space 3} 2.961496
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.208296{col 56}{space 2} .8397473{col 67}{space 1}    1.44{col 76}{space 3}0.153{col 84}{space 4}-.4567674{col 97}{space 3}  2.87336
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .7625404{col 56}{space 2} .7881754{col 67}{space 1}    0.97{col 76}{space 3}0.336{col 84}{space 4}-.8002658{col 97}{space 3} 2.325347
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  1.06479{col 56}{space 2} .7551768{col 67}{space 1}    1.41{col 76}{space 3}0.161{col 84}{space 4}-.4325857{col 97}{space 3} 2.562167
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .9298076{col 56}{space 2} .7365655{col 67}{space 1}    1.26{col 76}{space 3}0.210{col 84}{space 4}-.5306657{col 97}{space 3} 2.390281
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .9908454{col 56}{space 2} .6845277{col 67}{space 1}    1.45{col 76}{space 3}0.151{col 84}{space 4}-.3664467{col 97}{space 3} 2.348137
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .8334132{col 56}{space 2} .6108435{col 67}{space 1}    1.36{col 76}{space 3}0.175{col 84}{space 4}-.3777766{col 97}{space 3} 2.044603
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .9000804{col 56}{space 2} .5750809{col 67}{space 1}    1.57{col 76}{space 3}0.121{col 84}{space 4}-.2401988{col 97}{space 3}  2.04036
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.148829{col 56}{space 2} .5557762{col 67}{space 1}    2.07{col 76}{space 3}0.041{col 84}{space 4} .0468272{col 97}{space 3}  2.25083
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 1.332372{col 56}{space 2} .5257488{col 67}{space 1}    2.53{col 76}{space 3}0.013{col 84}{space 4} .2899091{col 97}{space 3} 2.374834
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  1.15933{col 56}{space 2} .4704698{col 67}{space 1}    2.46{col 76}{space 3}0.015{col 84}{space 4} .2264751{col 97}{space 3} 2.092185
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .7974944{col 56}{space 2} .4362009{col 67}{space 1}    1.83{col 76}{space 3}0.070{col 84}{space 4}-.0674113{col 97}{space 3}   1.6624
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .7071939{col 56}{space 2} .3854935{col 67}{space 1}    1.83{col 76}{space 3}0.069{col 84}{space 4}-.0571685{col 97}{space 3} 1.471556
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5093335{col 56}{space 2} .3215468{col 67}{space 1}    1.58{col 76}{space 3}0.116{col 84}{space 4}-.1282343{col 97}{space 3} 1.146901
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3170572{col 56}{space 2} .3109821{col 67}{space 1}    1.02{col 76}{space 3}0.310{col 84}{space 4}-.2995629{col 97}{space 3} .9336773
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .6465004{col 56}{space 2} .3363657{col 67}{space 1}    1.92{col 76}{space 3}0.057{col 84}{space 4}-.0204507{col 97}{space 3} 1.313451
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .8013685{col 56}{space 2} .2774824{col 67}{space 1}    2.89{col 76}{space 3}0.005{col 84}{space 4} .2511722{col 97}{space 3} 1.351565
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3570288{col 56}{space 2} .2298668{col 67}{space 1}    1.55{col 76}{space 3}0.123{col 84}{space 4}-.0987546{col 97}{space 3} .8128122
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0110757{col 56}{space 2} .1937071{col 67}{space 1}    0.06{col 76}{space 3}0.955{col 84}{space 4}-.3730097{col 97}{space 3} .3951611
{txt}{space 37}2013  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1380984{col 56}{space 2} .1338451{col 67}{space 1}   -1.03{col 76}{space 3}0.305{col 84}{space 4}-.4034885{col 97}{space 3} .1272917
{txt}{space 37}2014  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.1148793{col 56}{space 2} .0799553{col 67}{space 1}   -1.44{col 76}{space 3}0.154{col 84}{space 4}-.2734158{col 97}{space 3} .0436572
{txt}{space 37}2015  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -26.5992{col 56}{space 2} 12.47789{col 67}{space 1}   -2.13{col 76}{space 3}0.035{col 84}{space 4}-51.34055{col 97}{space 3} -1.85784
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} 3.5189609
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} 1.3609945
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res} .86988023{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,745}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1753252{col 32}{space 2} 1.217907{col 43}{space 1}    0.14{col 52}{space 3}0.886{col 60}{space 4}-2.211728{col 73}{space 3} 2.562379
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1540214{col 32}{space 2} 1.070315{col 43}{space 1}    0.14{col 52}{space 3}0.886{col 60}{space 4}-1.943758{col 73}{space 3} 2.251801
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1327175{col 32}{space 2} .9251349{col 43}{space 1}    0.14{col 52}{space 3}0.886{col 60}{space 4}-1.680514{col 73}{space 3} 1.945949
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1114137{col 32}{space 2}  .783706{col 43}{space 1}    0.14{col 52}{space 3}0.887{col 60}{space 4}-1.424622{col 73}{space 3} 1.647449
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0901099{col 32}{space 2} .6484882{col 43}{space 1}    0.14{col 52}{space 3}0.889{col 60}{space 4}-1.180904{col 73}{space 3} 1.361123
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}  .068806{col 32}{space 2} .5243091{col 43}{space 1}    0.13{col 52}{space 3}0.896{col 60}{space 4} -.958821{col 73}{space 3} 1.096433
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0475022{col 32}{space 2} .4210515{col 43}{space 1}    0.11{col 52}{space 3}0.910{col 60}{space 4}-.7777436{col 73}{space 3}  .872748
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0261984{col 32}{space 2} .3573373{col 43}{space 1}    0.07{col 52}{space 3}0.942{col 60}{space 4}-.6741698{col 73}{space 3} .7265665
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0048945{col 32}{space 2} .3551291{col 43}{space 1}    0.01{col 52}{space 3}0.989{col 60}{space 4}-.6911457{col 73}{space 3} .7009348
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0164093{col 32}{space 2}  .415409{col 43}{space 1}   -0.04{col 52}{space 3}0.968{col 60}{space 4} -.830596{col 73}{space 3} .7977774
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0377131{col 32}{space 2} .5167532{col 43}{space 1}   -0.07{col 52}{space 3}0.942{col 60}{space 4}-1.050531{col 73}{space 3} .9751046
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on rating) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *Fitch's rating*
. xtreg  FitchNUM c.laggedautocracy##c.nationalfiscalrule laggeddemocracy gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster (ccode) 
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:laggeddemocracy} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,454
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}        95

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.4692{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         1
{txt}     Between = {res}0.6743{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      15.3
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.6423{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        22

{txt}{col 49}F({res}34{txt},{res}94{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}    17.97
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.4715{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 104:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:95} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 39}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 40}{c |}{col 52}    Robust
{col 1}                              FitchNUM{col 40}{c |} Coefficient{col 52}  std. err.{col 64}      t{col 72}   P>|t|{col 80}     [95% con{col 93}f. interval]
{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}laggedautocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  -.56059{col 52}{space 2} .4483822{col 63}{space 1}   -1.25{col 72}{space 3}0.214{col 80}{space 4}-1.450863{col 93}{space 3} .3296834
{txt}{space 20}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0446287{col 52}{space 2} .3315071{col 63}{space 1}    0.13{col 72}{space 3}0.893{col 80}{space 4}-.6135865{col 93}{space 3} .7028438
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4242719{col 52}{space 2} .3950938{col 63}{space 1}    1.07{col 72}{space 3}0.286{col 80}{space 4}-.3601962{col 93}{space 3}  1.20874
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 23}laggeddemocracy {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 25}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.046293{col 52}{space 2} .0067878{col 63}{space 1}   -6.82{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4}-.0597705{col 93}{space 3}-.0328156
{txt}{space 26}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0456593{col 52}{space 2} .0106849{col 63}{space 1}   -4.27{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4}-.0668744{col 93}{space 3}-.0244443
{txt}{space 27}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0148535{col 52}{space 2} .0188469{col 63}{space 1}    0.79{col 72}{space 3}0.433{col 80}{space 4}-.0225674{col 93}{space 3} .0522744
{txt}{space 32}loggdp {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} 4.505042{col 52}{space 2} 1.041354{col 63}{space 1}    4.33{col 72}{space 3}0.000{col 80}{space 4} 2.437409{col 93}{space 3} 6.572674
{txt}{space 26}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0287921{col 52}{space 2} .0163174{col 63}{space 1}   -1.76{col 72}{space 3}0.081{col 80}{space 4}-.0611908{col 93}{space 3} .0036065
{txt}{space 26}issue_region {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-2.358537{col 52}{space 2} .8291639{col 63}{space 1}   -2.84{col 72}{space 3}0.005{col 80}{space 4}-4.004861{col 93}{space 3}-.7122124
{txt}{space 19}leader_election_new {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.0643735{col 52}{space 2} .0431075{col 63}{space 1}   -1.49{col 72}{space 3}0.139{col 80}{space 4}-.1499643{col 93}{space 3} .0212174
{txt}{space 27}exportsToUS {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0000121{col 52}{space 2} .0000732{col 63}{space 1}    0.17{col 72}{space 3}0.868{col 80}{space 4}-.0001331{col 93}{space 3} .0001574
{txt}{space 24}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-.8517318{col 52}{space 2} .4277238{col 63}{space 1}   -1.99{col 72}{space 3}0.049{col 80}{space 4}-1.700987{col 93}{space 3}-.0024762
{txt}{space 28}imfprogram {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} -.441848{col 52}{space 2} .2949198{col 63}{space 1}   -1.50{col 72}{space 3}0.137{col 80}{space 4}-1.027418{col 93}{space 3} .1437221
{txt}{space 38} {c |}
{space 34}year {c |}
{space 36}1  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (empty)
{space 33}1994  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0452385{col 52}{space 2} .8753332{col 63}{space 1}    0.05{col 72}{space 3}0.959{col 80}{space 4}-1.692756{col 93}{space 3} 1.783233
{txt}{space 33}1995  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0033869{col 52}{space 2} .7633938{col 63}{space 1}    0.00{col 72}{space 3}0.996{col 80}{space 4}-1.512349{col 93}{space 3} 1.519123
{txt}{space 33}1996  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1060178{col 52}{space 2} .6936418{col 63}{space 1}    0.15{col 72}{space 3}0.879{col 80}{space 4}-1.271224{col 93}{space 3}  1.48326
{txt}{space 33}1997  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4257955{col 52}{space 2} .7380617{col 63}{space 1}    0.58{col 72}{space 3}0.565{col 80}{space 4}-1.039643{col 93}{space 3} 1.891234
{txt}{space 33}1998  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1841223{col 52}{space 2} .6956847{col 63}{space 1}    0.26{col 72}{space 3}0.792{col 80}{space 4}-1.197176{col 93}{space 3} 1.565421
{txt}{space 33}1999  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .366626{col 52}{space 2} .6395445{col 63}{space 1}    0.57{col 72}{space 3}0.568{col 80}{space 4}-.9032045{col 93}{space 3} 1.636457
{txt}{space 33}2000  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3198395{col 52}{space 2} .5853645{col 63}{space 1}    0.55{col 72}{space 3}0.586{col 80}{space 4}-.8424155{col 93}{space 3} 1.482095
{txt}{space 33}2001  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4830091{col 52}{space 2} .5499599{col 63}{space 1}    0.88{col 72}{space 3}0.382{col 80}{space 4}-.6089493{col 93}{space 3} 1.574967
{txt}{space 33}2002  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .6491356{col 52}{space 2}  .508691{col 63}{space 1}    1.28{col 72}{space 3}0.205{col 80}{space 4}-.3608824{col 93}{space 3} 1.659154
{txt}{space 33}2003  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .6478622{col 52}{space 2} .4826464{col 63}{space 1}    1.34{col 72}{space 3}0.183{col 80}{space 4}-.3104436{col 93}{space 3} 1.606168
{txt}{space 33}2004  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .7133933{col 52}{space 2}  .435607{col 63}{space 1}    1.64{col 72}{space 3}0.105{col 80}{space 4}-.1515146{col 93}{space 3} 1.578301
{txt}{space 33}2005  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .7866909{col 52}{space 2} .4579944{col 63}{space 1}    1.72{col 72}{space 3}0.089{col 80}{space 4}-.1226676{col 93}{space 3}  1.69605
{txt}{space 33}2006  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .5385014{col 52}{space 2} .3228734{col 63}{space 1}    1.67{col 72}{space 3}0.099{col 80}{space 4}-.1025713{col 93}{space 3} 1.179574
{txt}{space 33}2007  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .3023335{col 52}{space 2} .2889008{col 63}{space 1}    1.05{col 72}{space 3}0.298{col 80}{space 4}-.2712859{col 93}{space 3} .8759528
{txt}{space 33}2008  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}     .134{col 52}{space 2} .2618534{col 63}{space 1}    0.51{col 72}{space 3}0.610{col 80}{space 4} -.385916{col 93}{space 3}  .653916
{txt}{space 33}2009  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2803549{col 52}{space 2} .2911709{col 63}{space 1}    0.96{col 72}{space 3}0.338{col 80}{space 4}-.2977717{col 93}{space 3} .8584814
{txt}{space 33}2010  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}  .508208{col 52}{space 2} .2622907{col 63}{space 1}    1.94{col 72}{space 3}0.056{col 80}{space 4}-.0125764{col 93}{space 3} 1.028992
{txt}{space 33}2011  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .4333059{col 52}{space 2} .2366889{col 63}{space 1}    1.83{col 72}{space 3}0.070{col 80}{space 4}-.0366454{col 93}{space 3} .9032571
{txt}{space 33}2012  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .2051104{col 52}{space 2} .1697269{col 63}{space 1}    1.21{col 72}{space 3}0.230{col 80}{space 4}-.1318862{col 93}{space 3} .5421071
{txt}{space 33}2013  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .1735162{col 52}{space 2} .1301532{col 63}{space 1}    1.33{col 72}{space 3}0.186{col 80}{space 4} -.084906{col 93}{space 3} .4319384
{txt}{space 33}2014  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2} .0951531{col 52}{space 2} .0801203{col 63}{space 1}    1.19{col 72}{space 3}0.238{col 80}{space 4}-.0639276{col 93}{space 3} .2542337
{txt}{space 33}2015  {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}        0{col 52}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 38} {c |}
{space 33}_cons {c |}{col 40}{res}{space 2}-22.23059{col 52}{space 2} 9.949233{col 63}{space 1}   -2.23{col 72}{space 3}0.028{col 80}{space 4}-41.98503{col 93}{space 3}-2.476156
{txt}{hline 39}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                               sigma_u {c |} {res} 3.2766926
                               {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} 1.1821382
                                   {txt}rho {c |} {res} .88483338{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 39}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. estimates store fordem 
{txt}
{com}. coefplot fordem, keep(laggedautocracy laggeddemocracy nationalfiscalrule c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule  )  omitted coeflabels(  laggedautocracy="Autocracy without fiscal rule" laggeddemocracy= "Democracy without fiscal rule" nationalfiscalrule="Democracy with fiscal rule" c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule="Autocracy with fiscal rule") xlabel(,format(%9.1f)) xline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash)) levels( 95 90) graphregion(color(white)) order(laggeddemocracy laggedautocracy nationalfiscalrule  c.laggedautocracy#c.nationalfiscalrule) xtitle(Effect on rating)
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. xtreg FitchNUM c.v2x_polyarchymerged##c.nationalfiscalrule  gov_grossdebt  curr_act_gdp wdi_oilrent loggdp wdi_gdpcapgr issue_region leader_election_new  exportsToUS crisis_sovdebt imfprogram i.year, fe cluster (ccode)
{txt}{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:1b.year} identifies no observations in the sample.{p_end}
{p 0 6 2}note: {bf:2015.year} omitted because of collinearity.{p_end}
{res}
{txt}Fixed-effects (within) regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}={col 69}{res}     1,454
{txt}Group variable: {res}ccode{txt}{col 49}Number of groups{col 67}={col 69}{res}        95

{txt}R-squared:{col 49}Obs per group:
     Within  = {res}0.4685{col 63}{txt}min{col 67}={col 69}{res}         1
{txt}     Between = {res}0.6772{col 63}{txt}avg{col 67}={col 69}{res}      15.3
{txt}     Overall = {res}0.6461{col 63}{txt}max{col 67}={col 69}{res}        22

{txt}{col 49}F({res}34{txt},{res}94{txt}){col 67}={col 70}{res}    20.12
{txt}corr(u_i, Xb) = {res}-0.4144{txt}{col 49}Prob > F{col 67}={col 73}{res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 108:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:95} clusters in {res:ccode})}
{hline 43}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 44}{c |}{col 56}    Robust
{col 1}                                  FitchNUM{col 44}{c |} Coefficient{col 56}  std. err.{col 68}      t{col 76}   P>|t|{col 84}     [95% con{col 97}f. interval]
{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 23}v2x_polyarchymerged {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.6837938{col 56}{space 2}  1.92894{col 67}{space 1}   -0.35{col 76}{space 3}0.724{col 84}{space 4}-4.513749{col 97}{space 3} 3.146162
{txt}{space 24}nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5076351{col 56}{space 2} 1.158709{col 67}{space 1}    0.44{col 76}{space 3}0.662{col 84}{space 4}-1.793008{col 97}{space 3} 2.808278
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
c.v2x_polyarchymerged#c.nationalfiscalrule {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.5294356{col 56}{space 2} 1.478873{col 67}{space 1}   -0.36{col 76}{space 3}0.721{col 84}{space 4}-3.465773{col 97}{space 3} 2.406902
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 29}gov_grossdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0462922{col 56}{space 2} .0067074{col 67}{space 1}   -6.90{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4}-.0596098{col 97}{space 3}-.0329745
{txt}{space 30}curr_act_gdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0463317{col 56}{space 2} .0103481{col 67}{space 1}   -4.48{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4} -.066878{col 97}{space 3}-.0257853
{txt}{space 31}wdi_oilrent {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0152804{col 56}{space 2} .0184632{col 67}{space 1}    0.83{col 76}{space 3}0.410{col 84}{space 4}-.0213788{col 97}{space 3} .0519395
{txt}{space 36}loggdp {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} 4.462701{col 56}{space 2} 1.068169{col 67}{space 1}    4.18{col 76}{space 3}0.000{col 84}{space 4} 2.341827{col 97}{space 3} 6.583574
{txt}{space 30}wdi_gdpcapgr {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0300381{col 56}{space 2} .0163852{col 67}{space 1}   -1.83{col 76}{space 3}0.070{col 84}{space 4}-.0625712{col 97}{space 3}  .002495
{txt}{space 30}issue_region {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} -2.30066{col 56}{space 2}  .804428{col 67}{space 1}   -2.86{col 76}{space 3}0.005{col 84}{space 4}-3.897871{col 97}{space 3}-.7034497
{txt}{space 23}leader_election_new {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.0690772{col 56}{space 2} .0428235{col 67}{space 1}   -1.61{col 76}{space 3}0.110{col 84}{space 4}-.1541043{col 97}{space 3} .0159499
{txt}{space 31}exportsToUS {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0000148{col 56}{space 2} .0000775{col 67}{space 1}    0.19{col 76}{space 3}0.849{col 84}{space 4}-.0001391{col 97}{space 3} .0001687
{txt}{space 28}crisis_sovdebt {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.7608537{col 56}{space 2} .4593446{col 67}{space 1}   -1.66{col 76}{space 3}0.101{col 84}{space 4}-1.672893{col 97}{space 3} .1511858
{txt}{space 32}imfprogram {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-.4500173{col 56}{space 2} .2826117{col 67}{space 1}   -1.59{col 76}{space 3}0.115{col 84}{space 4}-1.011149{col 97}{space 3} .1111149
{txt}{space 42} {c |}
{space 38}year {c |}
{space 40}1  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (empty)
{space 37}1994  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0552342{col 56}{space 2}  .874555{col 67}{space 1}    0.06{col 76}{space 3}0.950{col 84}{space 4}-1.681215{col 97}{space 3} 1.791684
{txt}{space 37}1995  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0093819{col 56}{space 2} .7684147{col 67}{space 1}    0.01{col 76}{space 3}0.990{col 84}{space 4}-1.516324{col 97}{space 3} 1.535087
{txt}{space 37}1996  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .0929835{col 56}{space 2} .7026466{col 67}{space 1}    0.13{col 76}{space 3}0.895{col 84}{space 4}-1.302138{col 97}{space 3} 1.488105
{txt}{space 37}1997  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .4189643{col 56}{space 2} .7464177{col 67}{space 1}    0.56{col 76}{space 3}0.576{col 84}{space 4}-1.063066{col 97}{space 3} 1.900994
{txt}{space 37}1998  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1744892{col 56}{space 2} .7018232{col 67}{space 1}    0.25{col 76}{space 3}0.804{col 84}{space 4}-1.218997{col 97}{space 3} 1.567976
{txt}{space 37}1999  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3723505{col 56}{space 2} .6432371{col 67}{space 1}    0.58{col 76}{space 3}0.564{col 84}{space 4}-.9048118{col 97}{space 3} 1.649513
{txt}{space 37}2000  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3098112{col 56}{space 2} .5901726{col 67}{space 1}    0.52{col 76}{space 3}0.601{col 84}{space 4}-.8619903{col 97}{space 3} 1.481613
{txt}{space 37}2001  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .490437{col 56}{space 2} .5498566{col 67}{space 1}    0.89{col 76}{space 3}0.375{col 84}{space 4}-.6013161{col 97}{space 3}  1.58219
{txt}{space 37}2002  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .6443253{col 56}{space 2} .5104114{col 67}{space 1}    1.26{col 76}{space 3}0.210{col 84}{space 4}-.3691086{col 97}{space 3} 1.657759
{txt}{space 37}2003  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .6615485{col 56}{space 2} .4811286{col 67}{space 1}    1.37{col 76}{space 3}0.172{col 84}{space 4}-.2937436{col 97}{space 3} 1.616841
{txt}{space 37}2004  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .7310464{col 56}{space 2} .4338993{col 67}{space 1}    1.68{col 76}{space 3}0.095{col 84}{space 4}-.1304707{col 97}{space 3} 1.592564
{txt}{space 37}2005  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}  .808389{col 56}{space 2} .4557819{col 67}{space 1}    1.77{col 76}{space 3}0.079{col 84}{space 4}-.0965765{col 97}{space 3} 1.713355
{txt}{space 37}2006  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}   .55402{col 56}{space 2} .3270122{col 67}{space 1}    1.69{col 76}{space 3}0.094{col 84}{space 4}-.0952704{col 97}{space 3}  1.20331
{txt}{space 37}2007  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .3151717{col 56}{space 2} .2913832{col 67}{space 1}    1.08{col 76}{space 3}0.282{col 84}{space 4}-.2633764{col 97}{space 3} .8937199
{txt}{space 37}2008  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1444705{col 56}{space 2} .2635439{col 67}{space 1}    0.55{col 76}{space 3}0.585{col 84}{space 4}-.3788021{col 97}{space 3} .6677432
{txt}{space 37}2009  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2816595{col 56}{space 2} .2930372{col 67}{space 1}    0.96{col 76}{space 3}0.339{col 84}{space 4}-.3001726{col 97}{space 3} .8634917
{txt}{space 37}2010  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .5138466{col 56}{space 2} .2628783{col 67}{space 1}    1.95{col 76}{space 3}0.054{col 84}{space 4}-.0081044{col 97}{space 3} 1.035798
{txt}{space 37}2011  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .4407455{col 56}{space 2} .2362229{col 67}{space 1}    1.87{col 76}{space 3}0.065{col 84}{space 4}-.0282806{col 97}{space 3} .9097717
{txt}{space 37}2012  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .2161537{col 56}{space 2} .1754112{col 67}{space 1}    1.23{col 76}{space 3}0.221{col 84}{space 4}-.1321293{col 97}{space 3} .5644367
{txt}{space 37}2013  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1814206{col 56}{space 2} .1306413{col 67}{space 1}    1.39{col 76}{space 3}0.168{col 84}{space 4}-.0779707{col 97}{space 3} .4408119
{txt}{space 37}2014  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2} .1037323{col 56}{space 2} .0791262{col 67}{space 1}    1.31{col 76}{space 3}0.193{col 84}{space 4}-.0533745{col 97}{space 3} .2608392
{txt}{space 37}2015  {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}        0{col 56}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 42} {c |}
{space 37}_cons {c |}{col 44}{res}{space 2}-21.54438{col 56}{space 2} 10.32658{col 67}{space 1}   -2.09{col 76}{space 3}0.040{col 84}{space 4}-42.04805{col 97}{space 3}-1.040718
{txt}{hline 43}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                                   sigma_u {c |} {res} 3.1517048
                                   {txt}sigma_e {c |} {res} 1.1829475
                                       {txt}rho {c |} {res} .87651873{txt}   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
{hline 43}{c BT}{hline 64}

{com}. margins, dydx(nationalfiscalrule) at(v2x_polyarchy= (0 (0.1)1))
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 58}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 71} = {res}{ralign 5:1,454}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Linear prediction, predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:nationalfiscalrule}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{lalign 8:1._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:0}}
{lalign 8:2._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.1}}
{lalign 8:3._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.2}}
{lalign 8:4._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.3}}
{lalign 8:5._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.4}}
{lalign 8:6._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.5}}
{lalign 8:7._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.6}}
{lalign 8:8._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.7}}
{lalign 8:9._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.8}}
{lalign 8:10._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:.9}}
{lalign 8:11._at: }{space 0}{lalign 16:v2x_polyarchym~d} = {res:{ralign 2:1}}

{res}{txt}{hline 19}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 20}{c |}{col 32} Delta-method
{col 20}{c |}      dy/dx{col 32}   std. err.{col 44}      z{col 52}   P>|z|{col 60}     [95% con{col 73}f. interval]
{hline 19}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}nationalfiscalrule {txt}{c |}
{space 15}_at {c |}
{space 16}1  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .5076351{col 32}{space 2} 1.158709{col 43}{space 1}    0.44{col 52}{space 3}0.661{col 60}{space 4}-1.763392{col 73}{space 3} 2.778662
{txt}{space 16}2  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .4546915{col 32}{space 2} 1.017315{col 43}{space 1}    0.45{col 52}{space 3}0.655{col 60}{space 4}-1.539208{col 73}{space 3} 2.448592
{txt}{space 16}3  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}  .401748{col 32}{space 2} .8780625{col 43}{space 1}    0.46{col 52}{space 3}0.647{col 60}{space 4}-1.319223{col 73}{space 3} 2.122719
{txt}{space 16}4  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .3488044{col 32}{space 2} .7421589{col 43}{space 1}    0.47{col 52}{space 3}0.638{col 60}{space 4}  -1.1058{col 73}{space 3} 1.803409
{txt}{space 16}5  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2958609{col 32}{space 2} .6118392{col 43}{space 1}    0.48{col 52}{space 3}0.629{col 60}{space 4}-.9033219{col 73}{space 3} 1.495044
{txt}{space 16}6  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .2429173{col 32}{space 2} .4915647{col 43}{space 1}    0.49{col 52}{space 3}0.621{col 60}{space 4}-.7205319{col 73}{space 3} 1.206366
{txt}{space 16}7  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1899737{col 32}{space 2} .3907248{col 43}{space 1}    0.49{col 52}{space 3}0.627{col 60}{space 4}-.5758328{col 73}{space 3} .9557803
{txt}{space 16}8  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .1370302{col 32}{space 2} .3277761{col 43}{space 1}    0.42{col 52}{space 3}0.676{col 60}{space 4}-.5053993{col 73}{space 3} .7794596
{txt}{space 16}9  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0840866{col 32}{space 2} .3254993{col 43}{space 1}    0.26{col 52}{space 3}0.796{col 60}{space 4}-.5538804{col 73}{space 3} .7220536
{txt}{space 15}10  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2} .0311431{col 32}{space 2} .3849724{col 43}{space 1}    0.08{col 52}{space 3}0.936{col 60}{space 4}-.7233889{col 73}{space 3} .7856751
{txt}{space 15}11  {c |}{col 20}{res}{space 2}-.0218005{col 32}{space 2} .4839411{col 43}{space 1}   -0.05{col 52}{space 3}0.964{col 60}{space 4}-.9703076{col 73}{space 3} .9267067
{txt}{hline 19}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. marginsplot, ylabel(,format(%9.1f) ) title("") xlabel(, format(%9.1f)) level(90) ytitle(Effect of fiscal rule on rating) xtitle(Polyarchy index)addplot(hist v2x_polyarchy if issuanceOutcome!=0. &  v2x_polyarchy!=. & nationalfiscalrule!=. & gov_grossdebt!=. & wdi_oilrent!=. & loggdp!=. & wdi_gdpcapgr!=. , below  percent bin(200)  lcolor(black*0.5) fcolor(white) yaxis(8)ylabel(, axis(8)) yscale(off axis(8))) yline(0, lstyle(grid) lcolor(gs8) lpattern(dash))  graphregion(color(white))legend (off)    scheme(s1mono)  recastci(rline) recast(line)
{res}
{text}{p 0 0 2}Variables that uniquely identify margins: {bf:v2x_polyarchymerged}{p_end}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
{txt}end of do-file

{com}. exit, clear
